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All-Time Highs Are Historically Bullish

The Big Picture

Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. Ask yourself this: Is 2024 more akin to 2007, or most other markets where new all-time highs were made? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month.

Economics 348
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Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

Calculated Risk

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. in 2007 and has fallen to under 10% now., Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Below 4% The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% The unemployment rate is up from 3.7%

Economics 129
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Coming Rate Cuts Portend a 1980s-Style Economic Resurgence

Advisor Perspectives

The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve. Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007?

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Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

Calculated Risk

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. in 2007 and has fallen to under 10% now., Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Near 50 Year Low The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% The unemployment rate is down from 4.6%

Economics 119
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Economic Imbalances Could Mean Deep Recession or Sticky Inflation

Advisor Perspectives

A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Economic Innovation Group ). • Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. Is Private Credit a Bubble, or Just a Little Frothy?

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Stop Worrying About All Those Tech Layoffs…

The Big Picture

Unemployment is low, job openings are still high, and what looks salaries are still rising. ~~~ I have a very vivid recollection of massive firings during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Last, the Labor market remains very robust. As the chart above shows, Unemployment spiked to 10%, layoffs were ubiquitous. At least, not yet.

Economics 319