2023

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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 325
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The Broker Who Saved America

The Reformed Broker

You know Hancock and Washington and Franklin and Jefferson. You might even know Greene and Knox, Henry and Hale. And we know you know Hamilton, pretty tough to escape that one these days! But it is very unlikely that you know the name Haym Solomon. This is unfortunate, because he’s the guy who arranged financing to keep the Continental Army alive during its darkest days, finding the money to keep the revolution goin.

Marketing 361
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The U.S. Housing Market vs. The Canadian Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Way back in 2017, I wrote about how bananas Canadian housing prices were. This was the chart I used at the time: Canada basically skipped the housing bust from the Great Financial Crisis. Well, things got even more bananas in the ensuing years. Here’s the updated version: Canadian housing prices can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent or something like that.

Marketing 142
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Should You T-Bill and Chill?

Discipline Funds

T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you’re getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we’ve seen since the mid-2000s so it’s a welcome change from the 10 years of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). In recent months I’ve heard the term “T-Bill and chill” more and more often.

Portfolio 133
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The ROI of Business Lending Platforms

Financial institutions continue to look to quantify the impact of new technologies. Meanwhile, business lending technologies have grown more popular in the industry. However, understanding the impact of said technologies means understanding how to increase your revenue while decreasing your costs. This is key for the growth of your organization. Biz2X created this eBook to analyze the ROI of business lending platforms and learn about the short-term and long-term benefits of said platforms.

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New Research Helps Explain the Underperformance of Active Managers

Advisor Perspectives

By applying artificial intelligence and Chat GPT to statements made by active fund managers, researchers have found that their underperformance can be partly explained by overconfidence that led to, among other things, excessive risk taking.

More Trending

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New Home Sales increase to 763,000 Annual Rate in May

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 763 thousand. The previous three months were revised down slightly, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales 145
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Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs : Goldman Sachs has been serving clients in India since the 1980s and established an onshore presence in Bengaluru, in 2004, Mumbai, India in December 2006 and a new office in Hyderabad opened in 2021 following a ten-year joint venture. Today, Goldman employs 9000+ Indians and serves leading corporate and institutional clients through corporate finance advisory, equity sales and trading, and fixed-income securities businesses, as well as providing macro-e

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What to Do About These High Interest Rates

Mr. Money Mustache

Whoa, have you seen what just happened to interest rates!? Suddenly, after at least fourteen years of our financial world being mostly the same, somebody flipped over the table and now things are quite different. Interest rates, which have been gliding along at close to zero since before the Dawn of Mustachianism in 2011, have suddenly shot back up to 20-year highs. – Which brings up a few questions about whether we need to worry, or do anything about this new development.

Economy 134
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What If You Owned No US Stocks?

Meb Faber Research

Stocks for the Long Run is one of my favorite books. If you were to ask me what the single most universally held belief in all of investing is, I’d say it is that “stocks are the best way to build wealth” I don’t disagree. After all the largest fund I manage is a long […] The post What If You Owned No US Stocks? appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog.

Investing 145
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Worry About the Right Things

The Irrelevant Investor

My colleague Nick in Louisiana wrote something excellent that I wanted to share with you. Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. “Do you know the difference between me and you? Me: Happy, happy, happy, dead. You: Worry, worry, worry, dead.” – Catch-22. The last few years reminded us that it’s more important to know how it feels to lose money than to make it.

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The Least Bad Choice

The Big Picture

I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully, these will allow you to gain a fresh perspective you might not have otherwise considered or perhaps even garner a better understanding of what is happening right here and now.

Economy 304
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120,000

The Reformed Broker

Just wanted to take a moment to recognize the incredible work my media and research teams have been doing to propel The Compound channel past 120,000 subscribers this month. And that 120k is just a fragment of the audience because almost everything we do on video is also on the audio podcast channels too. For those who are new to what we’re doing at the Compound YouTube channel each week, below is the schedule of w.

Media 361
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24 Things I Believe About Investing

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here are some things I believe about investing. 1. I believe simple beats complex. The problem is simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and appealing. 2. I believe the timing of buy or sell decisions matters less than your holding period. Picking tops and bottoms is for the lucky and the liars. Patiently holding onto your investments is more important for most investors than.

Investing 129
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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Credit Risk Happens Fast – a SVB Postmortem

Discipline Funds

One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. What I mean by that is that we’re currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle where inflation is a falling risk and credit deflation risk arises, in large part, because the Fed has reacted so quickly to bring inflation in.

Banking 145
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FHFA House Price Index Reaches Record High in March

Advisor Perspectives

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for March. The index reached a record high last month, coming in at 398.0. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 3.6%. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% in March and up 0.2% year-over-year.

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NCAA Athlete Compensation: Supporting College Athletes with Financial Planning

Wealth Management

With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.

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Black Knight: "Past-Due Mortgages Approach Recent Record Lows" in May

Calculated Risk

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Past-Due Mortgages Approach Recent Record Lows as Serious Delinquencies Continue Improvement; Prepayments See Seasonal Rise • Reversing much of April’s calendar-driven spike, the national delinquency rate fell 11 basis points (bps) in May to hit 3.10% – the lowest it’s been other than March 2023’s record of 2.92% • The number of borrowers a single payment past due improved by 94K (-9.5%), erasing nearly half of the prior month’s increase • Serious delinquencies (

Numbers 145
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.

Banking 123
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Less Cars, More Money: My Visit to the City of the Future

Mr. Money Mustache

In my role as Mr. Money Mustache, I do my best to be your one-stop-shop for Lifestyle Guru ideas. So over the years we’ve covered not just the Money side of life, but also the even more important stuff like health and fitness and the psychology of better, happier living. But there’s one single area of life where all of these factors come together with an almost Nuclear Fusion level of synergy and effectiveness.

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Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets

Meb Faber Research

Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets Guest: Liz Ann Sonders is the Chief Investment Strategist of Charles Schwab. She has a range of investment strategy responsibilities, from market and economic analysis to investor education, all focused on the individual investor. Recorded: 8/16/2023 | Run-Time: 57:07 Summary: In today’s episode, Liz Ann starts […] The post Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock

Marketing 128
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How to Crush the CFP? Exam ?: Part 1

Alpha Architect

Let’s talk about the right approach(es) and the proper study techniques you need to pass the CFPⓇ exam with confidence and get the certification you need to advance your career in finance and investing. How to Crush the CFPⓇ Exam ?: Part 1 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

CFP 124
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Nobody Knows Anything, FedWatch Edition

The Big Picture

Imagine you had a device that allowed you to peer into the future. You enter a subject matter into this machine, requesting a specific quantitative measure, and at a specific future time. In other words, Price and Date. The machine whirrs and spins, lights flash, bells ring, and out pops a chart showing a range of answers and their probabilities. You might imagine a machine like that would be worth a lot.

Economics 363
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“Today’s market pivots from a funeral to a party as fast as a VFW hall.”

The Reformed Broker

Please read this from Michael Santoli: Just as the depth of despond evident in investor-sentiment gauges around Labor Day was out of proportion to what the market and economy had been doing, the volume of cheer engendered by this four-week, 9% rally looks to be running at least a bit ahead of what has, after all, been a marginal upside exit from a long, grinding trading range.

Marketing 351
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This is Why You Stay the Course

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last year was one of the worst years ever for financial markets. Call it recency or loss aversion or some other Daniel Kahneman bias but for some reason, our brains are hard-wired to assume big losses will be followed by additional losses (just like we assume big gains will be followed by additional gains).1 The thing about big losses in the stock market is sometimes they are followed by big losses…but sometimes t.

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The Compound and Friends: We Are Ready For Prime Time

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Flourish: Thanks to Flourish for sponsoring this episode. Go to flourish.com to learn more about cash solutions for advisors. On today’s show, we discuss: Cathie Wood on NVDA stock ARKKs house view on AI and NVDA NVDA valuation updates ARKKs NVDA position since inception Big Tech’s biggest bets (or what it takes to build a billion-user platform) Company.

Valuation 136
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Larry Summers – Get out of U.S. Equities

Advisor Perspectives

“Be careful in the equity markets,” warned Larry Summers. The bond market is predicting a recession but, he said, the equity market has not priced that in.

Marketing 145
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Why Now Might Be the Right Time for a Like-Kind Exchange

Wealth Management

One way to mitigate the impact of a failed exchange is “tax straddling,” which involves timing the exchange so the sale falls in one tax year and the receipt of proceeds in the following year.

Taxes 126
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 264,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending June 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000 , unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 262,000 to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 255,750, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021 when it was 260,000.

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