2024

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At the Money: Is War Good for Markets?

The Big Picture

 At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? (February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? What is the correlation between geopolitical conflict and inflation? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? In this episode, I speak with Jeffrey Hirsch about what happens to equities after global conflicts.

Marketing 307
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Research links: simplistic thinking

Abnormal Returns

Private equity What does the research say about private equity performance? (morningstar.com) Why it's so hard to compare public and private investments. (caia.org) Fund management How should we assess 'pedigree' when it comes to investment managers? (investmentecosystem.com) Why hedge funds are happy with higher short term interest rates. (bloomberg.com) Quant stuff Researchers are now unleashing ChatGPT on stock selection models.

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Can Anyone Challenge the Econmic Dominance of the United States?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis there was this running narrative that the United States economy was the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry hamper. Yes, our economic recovery was tepid but the rest of the world was a mess. The European Union was falling apart. Emerging markets were in disarray. China seemed like it wanted to put up a fight for our economic seat on the throne but never made a serious attempt to di.

Economics 137
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CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Signal Underlying Weakness

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 21st straight month in December as the LEI continues to signal underlying weakness in the U.S. economy. The index inched down 0.1% from last month to 103.1, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.

Economics 133
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 17 Percent in 2023; 42% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 16.8 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 16.8 percent, with significant increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2023. This accelerates a continuing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals. According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S.

Economy 130

More Trending

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The Compound and Friends: Charts Out the A**

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by BlackRock: See here for more information on BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust On today’s show, we discuss: New York Community Bancorp stock plunges 38%, reigniting fears for regional banks Mark Zuckerbergs reported $100M compound in Hawaii Listen here: Charts: Tweets: Worst Fed day for the stock market since March 2023 (and fourth-worst.

Banking 127
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Q&A: Looming Regulation Could Impact the Use of Alternative Investments

Wealth Management

Anya Coverman, president and CEO of the Institute for Portfolio Alternatives, talks about potential policies at the federal and state levels that could stem advisors’ ability to use alternative investments in client portfolios.

Investing 120
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Burt Malkiel & Alex Michalka’s Insights for Investors in 2024

Wealthfront

In planning your investment strategy for 2024 and beyond, there are wise principles to keep in mind: While no one can predict how market prices will move in any particular period, there are time-tested general rules that can put the odds of success squarely in your favor. In this letter we will offer some simple […] The post Burt Malkiel & Alex Michalka’s Insights for Investors in 2024 appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.

Planning 122
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On the Persistence of Growth and Value Stocks

Alpha Architect

While analysts underwrite high growth for companies that have grown quickly and slow growth for companies that have grown slowly in the past, a large body of evidence demonstrates that reversion to the mean of both positive and negative abnormal earnings growth is the norm. On the Persistence of Growth and Value Stocks was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Assets 114
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Vodafone Idea: Adapting to India’s Telecom Market Shifts for a Comeback

Trade Brains

Vodafone Idea : Imagine the bustling streets of Chennai, Delhi, or Mumbai. A symphony of car horns and conversations blends with the ubiquitous beep of smartphones – a testament to India’s booming mobile revolution. In this landscape, Vodafone Idea (Vi) once reigned supreme, a towering telecom giant boasting millions of subscribers. But the past few years have been a rollercoaster ride for the company, with a narrative that shifted from dominance to decline, and now, unexpectedly, to a gli

Marketing 111
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CPI Shelter Measures: 6-12 Month Lag

The Big Picture

Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up ” As the chart above shows, Shelter was 2/3rds of the increase in the most recent. ( Chart thanks to Michael McDonough ).

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Josh Brown, "Just please, no matter what you do, don’t say the G word. Never say it." (downtownjoshbrown.com) Should you invest in stocks when they are at all-time highs? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why the vast majority of investors should avoid alternatives. (humbledollar.com) Are you doing these seven things that represent 'real financial planning'?

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This is the Best U.S. Economy Since the 1990s

A Wealth of Common Sense

As millennials reach middle age (hand up), prepare yourself for a wave of 1990s nostalgia. Remember MTV? Remember life before smartphones and social media? Remember rap groups? Remember life before everyone was forced to care about politics? Remember Saved by the Bell? Remember going to Blockbuster on a Friday night to pick out a movie? Finance people also have an affinity for the 1990s economy.

Economy 138
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Should Clients Own Bitcoin? Our Authors Respond

Advisor Perspectives

I asked our authors and guest contributors the following question: Given the availability of spot bitcoin ETFs, would you recommend them (or any other cryptocurrency allocation) to your clients?

Clients 128
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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.6% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through January 2024. Services were up 5.0% YoY as of January 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in December.

Food 124
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Episode #520: Drew Dickson on Navigating Behavioral Biases, U.S. vs. European Stocks, & Tesla

Meb Faber Research

Guest: Drew Dickson is the founder of Albert Bridge Capital and CIO of Alpha Europe funds. Recorded: 1/24/2024 | Run-Time: 1:03:53 Summary: We talk a lot about global investing on this show and wanted to talk about that with Drew given his focus on European markets. Between the end of 1979 and the end of 2009, […] The post Episode #520: Drew Dickson on Navigating Behavioral Biases, U.S. vs.

Investing 110
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Get the Big Things Right

The Irrelevant Investor

I did something dumb and irrational with my investments last week. Before I embarrass myself, let me say that I get the big things right, and it’s the big things that matter. I have a mortgage on a house that I can afford. My car situation, while not great and will expound on in a separate post, is fine. Let’s talk about my investments. I max out my 401(k) and don’t play any games in that account.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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11 Investment Must Reads for This Week

Wealth Management

Morningstar profiled the 15 funds that have destroyed the most wealth over the past 10 years. Investors who lost money on a deal are trying to shut down a real estate crowdfunding site. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

Investing 122
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Do What You Say You Will and Be Who You Say You Are

NAIFA Advisor Today

Glenn Crawford is a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst (CDFA®) and a licensed insurance agent holding a Series 65 Investment Advisor Representative distinction. His mission is to support better financial outcomes for clients by educating, enabling, and empowering them to make sound decisions about their financial well-being. Glenn has also dedicated a significant part of his practice to advising clients on the financial aspects of divorce.

License 105
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Trend to Passive Investing Negatively Affecting Active Funds

Alpha Architect

While the evidence makes clear that active management is a loser’s game (one that it is possible to win but so unlikely you should not try), we don’t want active managers to disappear. Hope should continue to triumph over evidence, wisdom, and experience because active managers help eliminate market anomalies and inefficiencies created by the misbehavior of investors (such as noise traders).

Investing 118
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Tata Technologies Vs KPIT Technologies – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Tata Technologies Vs KPIT Technologies : Have you seen the technological advancements in the cars on the road today? Cars can drive themselves within the white lines on the road, some maintain optimum speed with the traffic, and generally, a car has become a lot smarter than it was a decade ago. So how do you think this is happening? Today we will look into Tata Technologies Vs KPIT Technologies, two Companies that work to make cars & other automobiles a lot smarter.

Planning 119
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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MiB: Cathy Marcus, Co-CEO, Global COO of PGIM Real Estate

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Cathy Marcus , co-chief executive officer and global chief operating officer of PGIM Real Estate , which manages over $200 billion in assets. As co-CEO, Marcus develops and leads the company’s global strategy; as global COO, she is responsible for overseeing business and investment operations globally. She is also co-chair of the board of directors of RealAssetX , PGIM Real Estate’s innovation lab aimed at accelerating advancement in the real assets industry.

Startup 293
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Monday links: looking for bad ideas

Abnormal Returns

Private equity Dividend recaps are back on the table for private equity. (axios.com) When a company raises debt, and interest rates rise, trouble ensues. (adweek.com) The legal case for opening up private equity to the masses. (papers.ssrn.com) The private equity industry doesn't love academic research about its performance. (institutionalinvestor.com) Gambling Americans are going to the casino.

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All-Time Highs Usually Lead to More All-Time Highs in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Investing at all time highs is counterintuitive. Does it produce great returns because the market is forward-looking and investors are momentum investors? It doesn’t seem to make sense to buy just before a long severe bear market. I understand the worry here. All-time highs seem scary because every stock market crash in history started from one.

Marketing 132
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Soars in January

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment soared in January to its highest level since July 2021, according to the preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 78.8, up 9.1 (13.1%) from the December final. The latest reading was above the forecast of 70.0.

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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 50,000 in January

Calculated Risk

The BLS reported 353 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January. During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 553 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 257 thousand (median 248 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather.

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The Purpose of Work

Discipline Funds

There was a viral video over the weekend from a young lady complaining about having to go to work. The basic gist of the video was that work is a waste of time and stops people from doing things they’d actually want to do. This might be a long-ish post, but it’s deeply intertwined in economics, life and discipline so grab a coffee or click that exit button depending on whether you’re in the mood to listen to an old man rant. 1 When I visited Japan for the first time 10 years ag

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Nothing is More Bullish than All-Time Highs

The Irrelevant Investor

I’m skeptical at all-time highs. I know that feeling isn’t unique to me, that’s just human nature. It feels like it’ll end badly. It feels unsustainable. But those are just feelings. At a blackjack table, I’m nervous to hit when I have a 15 and the dealer is showing a face card, but I do it because the data says to hit, and data trumps feelings 100% of the time.

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