2024

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All-Time Highs Are Historically Bullish

The Big Picture

A quick note to answer this question: What happens after markets make a new all-time high (after a year w/o one)? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month. Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. That was after housing had peaked, subprime mortgages were defaulting, and the great financial crisis was about to start.

Economics 348
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site What is wrong with this picture? How your charitable intentions can get co-opted after you are gone. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. (morningstar.com) How home buying is going to change with the upheaval of realtor commissions. (thebasispoint.com) Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the re

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4 Moves You Can Make with Your Old 401(k)

Carson Wealth

By Matt Kory, Vice President, Retirement Programs Changing careers is an emotional move – there’s excitement for the new opportunity, sadness about leaving your favorite coworkers behind, depression if you weren’t ready to leave, worry about how to financially bridge the unemployment gap and anticipation of the new career all at once. Take a breath, you can take some time to understand your options.

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How The Interstate Highway System Changed American Industry

Fortune Financial

Signed into law in 1956 by then President Dwight Eisenhower, the Federal Highway Act created the Interstate Highway System , which would become the largest and costliest public works project in history. Measuring almost 48,000 miles in total distance, the Interstate Highway System was completed only in 1992, more than three decades after work began, and for a total cost in today’s dollars of more than $500 billion. ( source: Wikipedia Commons ) Inspired in large part by the German Autoba

Retail 140
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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20 Lessons From 20 Years of Managing Money

A Wealth of Common Sense

I entered the workforce in 2005. That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now. The longer I’m in the money management business the more there is to learn but these are some of the things I’ve learned thus far: 1. Experiences shape your perception of risk. Your ability and need to take risk should be based on your stage in life, time horizon, financial circumstances and goals.

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Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley To Step Down By Year’s End

Wealth Management

The firm’s board is already conducting a search for his successor. Additionally, Greg Davis has been appointed as president in addition to his current role as chief investment officer.

Investing 142
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The High Cost of Brexit

Advisor Perspectives

I have written this month’s Absolute Return Letter with a heavy heart. I don’t take any pleasure from other people’s misery.

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Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive?

The Irrelevant Investor

Stocks in the United States are more expensive than they used to be. Like, a lot more. You used to be able to buy a blue-chip company for fifteen times earnings. There was a time, a normal non-recessionary time, when you could buy the S&P 500 for fifteen times earnings. Prior to the dotcom bubble, there was only one instance when U.S. stocks traded at 25x times inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous decade.

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How To Afford a House These Days

Mr. Money Mustache

– The other day, an MMM reader stopped by and left the following comment on one of my older posts about the principles of FIRE: “While I still find some of MMM’s advice relevant, it seems like every FI blogger out there worked in tech 20 years ago, pulled down a 6 figure salary and bought a house for a bag of potatoes before 2019. I wasn’t smart enough to find FI when I was young so I sometimes feel like a lot of their advice is not going to help me or others who don’t already own a home a

License 127
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Burt Malkiel & Alex Michalka’s Insights for Investors in 2024

Wealthfront

In planning your investment strategy for 2024 and beyond, there are wise principles to keep in mind: While no one can predict how market prices will move in any particular period, there are time-tested general rules that can put the odds of success squarely in your favor. In this letter we will offer some simple […] The post Burt Malkiel & Alex Michalka’s Insights for Investors in 2024 appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.

Planning 122
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U.S. population distribution, 1975-2050

The Big Picture

We sometimes say “Demographics is Destiny,” but that’s abstract. To get a visual sense of what that looks like, see the above chart (via Blackrock ) showing the distribution of various age groups from 2075 to 2050. Note bars in Red are not in the workforce. The post U.S. population distribution, 1975-2050 appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Breaking Bad Momentum Trends

Alpha Architect

In their two papers, Goulding, Harvey, and Mazzoleni showed that observed market corrections and rebounds carry predictive information about subsequent returns and showed how that information could be utilized to enhance the performance of trend-following strategies by dynamically blending slow and fast momentum strategies based on four-state cycle-conditional information.

Marketing 109
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Your Retirement Planning Starter Pack

Carson Wealth

By Jake Anderson, CFP ® , Wealth Planner When helping clients begin retirement planning, the same questions often arise: What should my retirement plan look like? How much should I be saving? Although there are some basic guidelines, your financial life is as unique as your fingerprint. Your lifestyle, goals, family situation, and risk tolerance will give a unique signature to your retirement plan.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Fundamental Analysis Of Shakti Pumps – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

The core sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, infrastructure, and building services, constantly require pumps, which facilitates the growing importance of the pump sector in the country. As the landscape of water pumping evolved, this company made strategic moves that set it apart. In this article, we embark on a fundamental analysis of Shakti Pumps, a company that has turned out to be a 9x multi-bagger from a low of COVID-19.

Planning 111
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What If You Invested at the Peak Right Before the 2008 Crisis?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Despite 5% short-term interest rates and stickier inflation than some people would like and the Fed potentially pushing back interest rate cuts for a few months and the new True Detective seasons being a massive disappointment…the S&P 500 continues to take out new all-time highs. By my count there have already been a baker’s dozen in 2024 alone.1 Here are the new highs by year since 2015: 2015: 10 2016: 1.

Investing 139
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 145
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DOL Fiduciary Rule in Final Stretch as AARP, Insured Retirement Institute Set White House Meetings

Wealth Management

Supporters and critics of the proposed rule are setting up discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, one of the last steps before the final rule will be revealed.

Insurance 120
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Signal Underlying Weakness

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 21st straight month in December as the LEI continues to signal underlying weakness in the U.S. economy. The index inched down 0.1% from last month to 103.1, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.

Economics 133
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Top 10 Day of My Life

The Irrelevant Investor

Today was one of the best days of my life. I got to meet and interview my favorite athlete of all time, Eli Manning. Surreal is putting it mildly. I’ve never felt more of an emotional connection to an athlete than Eli, and I never really thought about why until this weekend when I was writing an introduction for him. I am a lifelong die-hard Giants and Knicks fan.

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How Do Higher Interest Rates Push Inflation Down?

Discipline Funds

Following the financial crisis I was very vocal that lower interest rates and QE would not cause high inflation. This went against the prevailing theory that lower interest rates and more reserves in the banking system could cause a surge in bank lending as lower rates make loans more affordable and more reserves give banks more ability to “multiply” loans.

Banking 108
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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2024

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market : If your alma mater or favorite college team did not make the tournament on Selection Sunday, we’ve got another option for you! Even if you don’t like or follow college basketball, we think you’ll enjoy what we pioneered and have put together. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.

Investing 105
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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At the Money: Is War Good for Markets?

The Big Picture

 At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? (February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? What is the correlation between geopolitical conflict and inflation? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? In this episode, I speak with Jeffrey Hirsch about what happens to equities after global conflicts.

Marketing 312
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Cut Your Losses and Let Profits Run?

Alpha Architect

Be careful before acting on what is considered to be conventional wisdom. Make sure it’s supported by empirical evidence. In this case, the evidence makes clear that “cut your losses and let your profits run” should not be conventional wisdom. Cut Your Losses and Let Profits Run? was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 110
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At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut

The Big Picture

At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut with Jim Bianco (March 13, 2024) Markets have been waiting for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates for over a year. What data should investors be following for insight into when they will begin? Jim Bianco discusses initial unemployment claims data and wage gain to identify when the Fed will start lowering rates.

Numbers 283
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CPI Shelter Measures: 6-12 Month Lag

The Big Picture

Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up ” As the chart above shows, Shelter was 2/3rds of the increase in the most recent. ( Chart thanks to Michael McDonough ).

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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How a Physics Whiz Made a Fortune Betting on Nature’s Catastrophes : John Seo used his scientific knowledge to develop a winning formula for trading catastrophe bonds — a market that’s booming thanks to climate change and inflation. ( Bloomberg Green ) • How neuroscience can help you make tough decisions – with no regrets : Most people are too risk-averse when it

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U.S. Technology Adoption, 1900-2021

The Big Picture

A century of tech adoption in 30 seconds click for animation Source: Blackrock The post U.S. Technology Adoption, 1900-2021 appeared first on The Big Picture.

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MiB: Cathy Marcus, Co-CEO, Global COO of PGIM Real Estate

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Cathy Marcus , co-chief executive officer and global chief operating officer of PGIM Real Estate , which manages over $200 billion in assets. As co-CEO, Marcus develops and leads the company’s global strategy; as global COO, she is responsible for overseeing business and investment operations globally. She is also co-chair of the board of directors of RealAssetX , PGIM Real Estate’s innovation lab aimed at accelerating advancement in the real assets industry.

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