2025

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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.

Banking 345
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Five “Self-Persuasion” Questions To Connect With Prospects Who Say They’re Interested… But Aren’t Moving Forward

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors often engage with a variety of prospects, each with unique needs and motivations. Some prospects approach an advisor with an immediate 'problem to be solved', such as a fast-approaching retirement date. These situations often narrow the focus of the prospecting conversation, giving the advisor a clear opportunity to affirm their value (e.g., "I help clients in retirement by doing X, Y, and Z.").

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Saturday links: the 70% rule

Abnormal Returns

Autos Honda ($HMC) is planning to launch two new EVs. (thecooldown.com) A first-hand experience with Super Cruise on I-95. (wapo.st) ATC Air traffic control failures may now be a bigger risk than mechanical malfunctions. (theatlantic.com) Why it's so hard to hire and retain air traffic controllers. (barrons.com) Energy Amazon ($AMZN) keeps buying renewable energy.

Food 182
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Historical Returns For Stocks, Bonds, Cash, Real Estate and Gold

A Wealth of Common Sense

One of my favorite market datasets just got its annual update. Aswath Damodaran at NYU publishes a yearly update of returns for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10 year Treasuries), cash (3-month T-bills), real estate, gold and inflation going back to 1928. Plus this year he added small caps to the mix.1 These are the long-term returns for each asset class from 1928-2024: Stocks +9.94% Small caps +11.74% Bonds +4.50% Cash +3.

Assets 141
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Bank of America Ramps Up New Wealth Division with Citi, UBS Alums

Wealth Management

BofA announced it hired Ed Riley and Jessica Mullin several days after unveiling its new advisory group for ultra-high-net-worth clients based out of its Merrill Wealth division.

Banking 142
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AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note"

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022.

Clients 108

More Trending

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Market Timing vs. Time in the Market

Zoe Financial

Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. What do these mean, and which is a sounder investment strategy? Lets take a poll. Raise your hand if youve ever heard someone brag about how they bought Amazon stock right before its share price doubled.

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The Magic Phrase to Never Lose The Sale

Advisor Perspectives

In the rush to secure a new client, many advisors instinctively push for momentum during the sales conversation, often feeling the pressure to keep things moving forward.

Sales 122
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The IRA Is 50 This Month!

NAIFA Advisor Today

Advisor Today Guest Column January of 2025 is the 50th anniversary to one of the most important pieces of legislation in the retirement planning arena ever put into law by Congress. What Im referring to is the enactment of ERISA, the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. Without question, ERISA brought about significant changes during the second half of the twentieth century.

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The Implications of an Aged Housing Stock

Fortune Financial

U.S. housing is in an interesting spot. The housing stock is increasingly aged, housing starts are only just beginning to catch up with the long-term average, and mortgage rates are much higher than they have been for years, making homeowners (some 40% of whom now own their homes outright*) reluctant to sell. These factors combine to make for an interesting setup for all sorts of housing-related construction and services as the housing market works to find an equilibrium.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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California vs Texas Minimum Wage, 2013-2024

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here: Last year finished with a flourish. The work I do here was directly responsible for the Hoover Institution retracting six (yes, 6) of its articles. Whether it was shoddy data analysis or a deliberate attempt to misinform, I found it offensive and brought the receipts as to the fundamental errors in the economic analysis. Most of the retractions concerned California’s April 1, 2024, increase in the minimum wage for “quick-serve restaurants” (QSR, also known as

Food 306
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Social Security Fairness Act: Planning Considerations For The Repeal Of The Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) And Government Pension Offset (GPO)

Nerd's Eye View

For most people, Social Security benefits are calculated using a single formula, which takes into account the individual's history of earning income on which they paid Social Security tax. But historically, a subset of workers that spent at least part of their careers in positions that did not pay Social Security tax – including many state and local government workers like teachers and police officers – have had their Social Security benefits reduced, sometimes down to $0.

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Longform links: outperforming others

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Gambling Man: The Secret Story of the World's Greatest Disruptor, Masayoshi Son" by Lionel Barber. (politico.com) An excerpt from "The Siren's Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource" by Chris Hayes. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Mnica Guzmn, author of "Never Thought of It That Way: How to Have Fearlessly Curious Conversations in Dangerously Divided Times.

Economics 189
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How Often Are We in a Recession or Bear Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. We’ve been in a recession just 1% of the time since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in the summer of 2009. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s.

Economy 128
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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From Bogleheads to Gearheads: U.S. ETFs Are Rapidly Increasing in Complexity

Wealth Management

In 2024, 40% of the new ETFs listed in the U.S. used derivatives as a significant component of their investment strategy, up from 20% in 2014.

Investing 127
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

Numbers 106
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Nine Lessons the Market Taught in 2024

Alpha Architect

In 2024 investors were provided with nine lessons. Many of them are repeats from prior years. Unfortunately, too many investors fail to learn themthey keep making the same errors. Nine Lessons the Market Taught in 2024 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Marketing 112
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Why there’s no apostrophe in writers room

Investment Writing

I’ve long wondered why there is no apostrophe in words like “writers room,” ‘homeowners association,” or “teachers college.” Is the noun descriptive or possessive? I found a good explanation in Emmy J. Favilla’s A World Without “Whom.” Do not use an apostrophe when a word is primarily descriptive rather than possessive… The word is acting more like an adjective than a possessive noun.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 17, 2025

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.

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7 Ways to Buy a New Home Before Selling Your Current House

Darrow Wealth Management

Can I buy another house before I sell mine? Updated for 2025. Because who wants to move twice? To buy a new house while selling yours (or selling and buying a home at the same time), you need cash and potentially the ability to carry two mortgages. Although challenging, here are seven options for buyers looking to buy a new home before selling the old house.

Taxes 105
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7 Steps to Define and Align Your Money Values for Success

Clever Girl Finance

If someone asked what your money values were, would you know how to answer? Or would you find yourself searching for a response and coming up blank? Our values are a key part of who we are, yet we often don’t take the time to intentionally think about, define, and understand themespecially when it comes to money. For anyone looking to transform their relationship with finances, figuring out your money principles is a great first step.

Ethics 94
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Tulipmania!

The Big Picture

Previously : 1 2 3 See also : Is This a Bubble? (Ben Carlson, January 31, 2025) Tulipomania! (The Paris Review, February 3, 2014) The post Tulipmania! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Marketing 293
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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22 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2025

Nerd's Eye View

There is no shortage of written content available for financial advisors to enhance their technical skills, grow in their careers, and run more successful planning practices, from books to research studies to long-form written content. Of course, given the demands of their busy schedules , finding time to dig into this content can be a challenging endeavor.

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Personal finance links: simple beats complex

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Benjamin Brandt author of "Retirement Starts Today." (peterlazaroff.com) Michael Easter speaks with Sahil Bloom, the author of "The 5 Types of Wealth: A Transformative Guide to Design Your Dream Life." (twopct.com) Carl Richards talks spending money with Joel Stein. (podcasts.apple.com) Housing The housing stock is aging.

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Don’t Freak Out

A Wealth of Common Sense

I spent this past weekend doing what my family does most weekends — shuttling our kids around to their various games, practices and birthday parties. One of the best parts about having young children is so much of your time is devoted to their activities that you don’t have a lot of time to pay attention to the outside world. Some parents complain about being busy all the time but I find it to be a welcomed br.

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Caribou And Its HealthPlanner Technology Acquired By Move Health

Wealth Management

The combined startups will provide advisors with seamless health planning from analysis to enrollment once integrations are complete.

Startup 124
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment market conditions declined in the National Multifamily Housing Councils (NMHCs) most recent Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.

Marketing 110
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Artificial Intelligence and the Risks of Harking (Hypothesizing After-the-Fact)

Alpha Architect

Because AI systems can produce hundreds of seemingly coherent theoretical explanations for mined empirical results, investors need to establish high hurdles before allocating to anomaly-based strategies. Artificial Intelligence and the Risks of Harking (Hypothesizing After-the-Fact) was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Life Happens and NAIFA: Life Insurance Is Love Insurance

NAIFA Advisor Today

February is Insure Your Love Month, an annual campaign created and coordinated by NAIFAs Life Happens community. The theme for this years commemoration is a simple yet impactful message: Life insurance is love insurance.

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Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update

Advisor Perspectives

The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.