Calculated Risk
JUNE 15, 2025
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the July meeting, with the next rate cut in September, and a second rate cut in December. From BofA: The Fed has made it clear that the policy rate will remain unchanged at its June meeting.
The Big Picture
MAY 29, 2025
Sometimes, the data is so overwhelming that little commentary is needed. From SPIVA , here is the data on large-cap fund performance in the United States, showing the percentage of all large-cap funds that over and underperformed the S&P 500 over various time frames: 1 Year: 65.24% of funds underperformed the S&P 500; 34.76% outperformed the S&P 500 3 Years: 84.96% underperformed; 15.04% outperformed 5 Years: 76.26% underperformed; 23.74% outperformed 10 Years: 84.34% underperformed;
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Wealth Management
MAY 28, 2025
The Department of Labor rescinded its 2022 guidance cautioning against cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, reaffirming a neutral stance on digital assets in retirement accounts.
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 16, 2025
How advisory firms charge for financial advice has long been a central question in the profession. While many firms have historically relied on commission-based compensation methods – reflecting a sales-driven approach – financial advice has evolved with technological advancements and a greater focus on financial planning, with the Assets Under Management (AUM) fee emerging as the primary compensation model.
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Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i
The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2025
A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.
The Big Picture
APRIL 28, 2025
We have no idea how good we had it. Lets consider the returns data from the period post-Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and then unpack what it might mean. Starting January 1, 2010, the S&P 500 generated a total return (with dividends reinvested) of 566.8% , or 13.3% per year from the start of 2010 through the end of Q1 2025. The Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled that.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
MARCH 3, 2025
Since March Madness is nearly upon us, how about a fun basketball story? I was lucky enough to be a hoops fan during the golden age of basketball: Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, the Bad Boy Detroit Pistons, Michael Jordan, and the perennially-on-the-verge-of-winning-it-all New York Knicks during the Patrick Ewing, John Starks, Charles Oakley, Anthony Mason era.
The Big Picture
MAY 5, 2025
First, lets go to the data (via Bloomberg ): 5,502,284% That is the per-share market value increase of Berkshire Hathaway stock from 1964 to 2024. Compare that with the SPX total returns of 39,054%; BRK annualized returns are ~20%, about double that of the S&P over the same period. Those mouthwatering returns have led to a cottage industry of imitators, analytical copycats, and flattering wannabes.
The Big Picture
JUNE 3, 2025
I’m on the road visiting our new office in Chicago and then heading to meet clients in San Francisco. However, after hearing some misinformation on TV from the usual suspects, I felt compelled to remind people of some key facts about the US debt and deficits. For a period of ~20 years, beginning after the September 11th attack, accelerating after the GFC, and running up until the 2022 rate hikes, the United States enjoyed incredibly low interest rates.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 4, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in January 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.
Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA
In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.
Wealth Management
JUNE 11, 2025
Brent Brodeski discusses how AI and fintech advancements are transforming wealth management, urging RIAs to adapt and seize value creation opportunities.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 21, 2025
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Wealth Management
MAY 27, 2025
Ritholtz Wealth Management relocates its Chicago office to The Salt Shed, emphasizing the importance of physical workspace in attracting talent and fostering collaboration.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 26, 2025
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been Big Seller of Treasuries In an interview last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that any plans by the Treasury to extend the maturity were a long ways off. One of the reasons cited by Secretary Bessent was the Federal Reserves current balance sheet runoff policy. Here is a quote from Bessent.
Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP
The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 20, 2025
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 28.5% YoY.
Calculated Risk
MAY 19, 2025
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 22.9% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 13% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
The Big Picture
APRIL 15, 2025
I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. I am sharing this now because so many questions have poured in. Best Worst Cases Last Monday, I discussed the consequences of chaos. While the purposes of the new tariff policy were not well explained some of the goals were muddled and unclear it seems a large part of the problem was the roll-out.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022.
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Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: On a 12-month average basis, Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak. . Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing. Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 9, 2025
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 1819, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that i nflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded the magnitude and persistence of such effects. Several participants noted that the announced or planned tariff increases were larger and broader than many of their business contacts had expected.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 19, 2025
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
Wealth Management
JUNE 12, 2025
Discover key insights on maximizing advisory firm value, avoiding common seller mistakes, and navigating M&A deals from industry expert Ted Jenkin.
Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Wealth Management
JUNE 17, 2025
Zach Ivey, Savant Wealth Management's CIO, discusses evolving investment landscapes, alternative allocations and educating advisors on private market liquidity at Wealth Management EDGE.
The Big Picture
MARCH 31, 2025
A quick note on tariffs : Over the past few weeks, I’ve been putting together my quarterly call for clients. The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Its easy to get distracted by the chaos of random policies that have been coming rapid-fire at Americans.
The Big Picture
APRIL 17, 2025
Your Biggest, Most Avoidable, Unforced Investment Errors Adapted from How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them (Harriman House, March 18, 2025) By Barry Ritholtz Tariffs, inflation, war, debt ceiling, profit warnings, geopolitics, market volatility theres always something happening to fuel your urge to make a decision any decision!
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 6, 2025
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent report finds that the number of SEC-registered RIAs, the assets that they manage, and the number of clients they serve all increased between 2023 and 2024 and suggests the industry is robust across the size spectrum, with both smaller and mid-sized firms seeing growth (often pushing them into higher size brackets and/or from state to SEC registration) and re
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 29, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
Calculated Risk
APRIL 4, 2025
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment market conditions declined in the National Multifamily Housing Councils (NMHCs) most recent Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.
Wealth Management
MAY 14, 2025
Advisors can better serve wealthy clients through strategic charitable giving of appreciated assets, from real estate to business interests.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.
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