Calculated Risk

JULY 8, 2024

Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

348

348

The Big Picture

JULY 7, 2024

@TBPInvictus here If you’re tired of California-minimum-wage-and-its-impact-on-limited-service-restaurant-employment stories, I understand. Leave this page immediately. I’m tired of it, too, but some stories are so factually challenged that they demand a response. So, allow me to address a hot mess of a story that appeared recently in the California Globe.

Food 338

Food Math Numbers Media 338

Wealth Management

JULY 10, 2024

The IRS shifts its audit focus to a wider income range.

320

320

Abnormal Returns

JULY 7, 2024

Top clicks this week How major asset classes performed in June 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Just how useful is historical financial markets data? (retirementresearcher.com) Don't forget, stocks are real assets. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Europe's stock market has badly lagged the U.S. How much longer can it last? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Beware small sample sizes.

Insurance 312

Insurance Assets Financial Market Investing 312

Advertisement

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

JULY 11, 2024

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2024.

Food 313

Food 313

The Big Picture

JULY 9, 2024

A quick break from book duty and doing our quarterly client call to share this fascinating discussion from tennis great Roger Federer: “In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches… What percentage of the POINTS do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.” -Roger Federer This is one of those great commencement addresses that will only gain stature over time.

Clients 317

Clients 317

Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2024

Autos How 'electric trees' could allow for charging on city streets. (thecooldown.com) Where an EV saves you money, by state. (axios.com) Why choose a self-driving taxi? (fastcompany.com) Energy Clean energy is being transported over even longer distances. (wsj.com) What's the ideal temperature to set your AC? (vox.com) Solar panels need regular maintenance.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Transportation Food Insurance 290

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 5, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 310

Marketing Marketing 310

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 10, 2024

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), passed in 2017, was one of the most extensive pieces of tax legislation to be passed in the last 30 years, touching many aspects of individual, corporate, and estate tax. However, most of TCJA's provisions are set to 'sunset' at the end of 2025 – an event that would have at least as much impact as TCJA's initial passage.

Taxes 246

Taxes Clients Planning Numbers 246

Wealth Management

JULY 8, 2024

Today, the conversation isn’t led by you saying, “Let me tell you about our firm.” It’s led by prospects saying, “Hey, I’ve been following your content, and now I want to meet.

315

315

Advertisement

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

Sales

Abnormal Returns

JULY 11, 2024

Defense How Russia has adapted to Western weapons in Ukraine. (wsj.com) Advances in drone warfare has happened outside the purview of the defense giants. (on.ft.com) GPS is increasingly under attack. (nytimes.com) Gambling Stock trading continues to migrate onto smartphones and apps. (bloomberg.com) Smartphones and ubiquitous gambling go hand-in-hand.

Economy 285

Economy 285

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2024

The BLS reported yesterday: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 308.163 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA).

308

308

The Big Picture

JULY 6, 2024

Source: New York Times The NYT: The final votes in Britain’s parliamentary elections are still being counted, but one thing is crystal clear: After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party is out. More than that: It’s been thoroughly punished by the British public, reduced to barely 120 seats, the party’s worst result in its history. Several prominent figures — including former Prime Minister Liz Truss — lost their seats.

246

246

Wealth Management

JULY 12, 2024

Sometimes, what seems like the most straightforward task can end up the most difficult and meaningful.

312

312

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

Assets

Abnormal Returns

JULY 10, 2024

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with William Bernstein about changing your behavior for the better. (ritholtz.com) Sam Parr talks with Scott Galloway author of "The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security." (podcasts.apple.com) Dan Haylett talks with David Blanchett about swapping 'financial independence' for retirement. (humansvsretirement.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talk retirement planning with Taylor Schulte.

Retirement Planning 277

Retirement Planning Retirement Financial Planning Banking 277

Calculated Risk

JULY 6, 2024

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q2; Office Vacancy Rate at New Record High • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales This is usually published 4 to 6 t

Sales 297

Sales Marketing Marketing 297

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 9, 2024

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 393rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Alex Lewis. Alex is the owner of Blackbridge Financial, a hybrid advisory firm based in Irmo, South Carolina, that oversees approximately $330 million in assets under management for 415 client households. What's unique about Alex, though, is how, at age 29, he took on a multi-million-dollar loan to purchase the firm from its founder as his successor, and, in the 4 years since,

Financial Advisor 245

Financial Advisor Clients CFP Planning 245

Wealth Management

JULY 8, 2024

REIT total returns rose for the second straight month and are approaching a break-even point for the year.

312

312

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management

Abnormal Returns

JULY 8, 2024

Finance Why Bill Ackman spends so much time on Twitter. (sherwood.news) Hedge funds are boosting their electricity trading capabilities. (wsj.com) Human FX traders are getting replaced by algorithms. (bloomberg.com) Why you should expect to see more ETFs designed by, and for, institutional investors. (institutionalinvestor.com) Housing Housing supply and affordability go hand-in-hand.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Media Economy Marketing 277

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Gained 10% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 10.4% in June to 198.6 (2000=100) from the revised May reading of 179.9. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.5% and institutional planning ticked up 0.2%. “Data centers continued to dominate planning projects in June – fueling another strong month for commercial planning,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Co

Healthcare 278

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 278

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 8, 2024

After several turbulent years in both markets and workforces, 2024 appears to be the 'most normal' year of late, with strong market performance, cooling (or at least no longer rising!?) interest rates, and relatively little new tax legislation (yet). Yet the need for advisor education – and the regulatory requirements to get it (in the form of Continuing Education obligations) – never ends, with the latest focus for most financial advisors being on the ongoing expansion of NASAA's 20

Ethics 239

Ethics Education Financial Advice Taxes 239

Wealth Management

JULY 8, 2024

Bridgewater's Greg Jensen said this current AI boom is nothing like the 1999 tech bubble.

311

311

Advertisement

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

JULY 12, 2024

The biz How a podcast network makes money. (linkedin.com) Spotify ($SPOT) has a bundling problem. (vox.com) Global Tyler Cowen talks with Brian Winter discuss the politics and economics of nearly every country from the equator down. (conversationswithtyler.com) Russell Napier talks with Harold James, author of "Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalisation.

Portfolio Management 264

Portfolio Management Economics Management Portfolio 264

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.4% YoY. 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

273

273

The Big Picture

JULY 6, 2024

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • These people still believe in democracy (little d) and are working to keep it. On this July 4th holiday, America’s system of democracy is under threat. These people are working to keep it alive and well. ( USA Today ) • The Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars Are More Cutthroat Than Ever Before : Here’s why everyone from fast-casual chains to chefs at Michelin-starred resta

Startup 195

Startup Assets Economy Investing 195

Wealth Management

JULY 9, 2024

Active management is a loser’s game.

Marketing 302

Marketing Marketing Management 302

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2024

Asset pricing The CAPM doesn't work. Maybe this measure does. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Brown stocks outperform green stocks. (alphaarchitect.com) Hedge funds Replicating multi-strategy hedge fund returns is kind of a waste. (insights.finominal.com) Do even failed activist investors help stock prices? (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Quant stuff More research is being done on the interaction between social media and market outcomes.

Budgeting 264

Budgeting Media Assets Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JULY 8, 2024

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 32.1% from the February seasonal bottom, and at the highest level since July 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 5th, inventory was at 653 thousand (7-day average), compared to 646 thousand the prior week.

234

234

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 12, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that at a time when employee retention has heightened importance for advisory firms given the ongoing competition for advisor talent, recent studies indicate that factors such as firm culture and leadership, as well as providing advisors with a sense of autonomy, can play important roles in building advisor loyalty to the firm.

Financial Planner 189

Financial Planner Tax Planning Clients Accounting 189

Wealth Management

JULY 9, 2024

With this latest deal included, Coldstream has nearly doubled in size over the last three years, all without taking any outside capital.

302

302

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting