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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in April were at expectations and starts in February and March were revised up, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red). Total starts were down 1.7% in April compared to April 2024.
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 10 May The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStars latest data through 10 May. 4-10 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 64.6% (-2.3%) Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.57 (-0.7%) Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.08 (-3.0%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This data suggests sales will be down year-over-year for the 3rd consecutive month in April, and that sales-to-date in 2025 are trailing sales in 2024 - and 2024 was the lowest sales year since 1995! Also, it seems sales in April might have a 3 handle (be under 4 million).
From Fed Chair Powell: Opening Remarks. Excerpts: The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020, and our review will reflect our assessment of those changes. Longer-term interest rates are a good deal higher now, driven largely by real rates given the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. Many estimates of the longer-run level of the policy rate have risen , including those in the Summary of Economic Projections.
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3 percent.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 34, down from 40 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence Builder confidence fell sharply in May on growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns, building material cost uncertainty and the cloudy economic outlook.
The DOL reported : In the week ending May 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000 , unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 228,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 227,000 to 227,250. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly cla
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.2 percent from April 2024. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month , and up 5.2 percent from April 2024.
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 230 thousand, up from 228 thousand last week. Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for April are scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 0.1% increase in retail sales.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 A brief excerpt: Last Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key story right now for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase A brief excerpt: The transition rate to serious delinquent is generally increasing and foreclosures are close to pre-pandemic levels. The Q1 increase is likely due to the end of the VA foreclosure moratorium.
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 9, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly CPI report".
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.04 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
From the NY Fed: Change in Household Debt Balances Mixed; Student Loan Delinquencies Rise Sharply The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $167 billion (0.9%) in Q1 2025, to $18.20 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Feds nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.
From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase.
Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.3% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April 2025.
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump to 2 Week Highs After US/China Trade Talks Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates because mortgage pricing is primarily determined by bond prices. Over the weekend, the US and China agreed on a 90 day pause on the more extreme tariff brinksmanship.
From the Federal Reserve: The April 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The April 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the first quarter of 2025.
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 Monday: At 2:00 PM ET, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 73 and DOW futures are up 449 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $61.39 per barrel and Brent at $64.21 per barrel.
The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through April 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago. Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic).
Plenty of data next week! Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide - and currently around 1%. From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on May 8, up from 2.2 percent on May 6. After this mornings wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to annualized second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.46 percentage points to -0.43
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. In the bigger picture, today's mortgage rate increase is unremarkable--sort of average--and it leaves the rate index well below the early April highs, despite being well above the range seen during the month of March.
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.
The DOL reported : In the week ending May 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000 , a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 241,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 226,000. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3% while institutional planning fell 4.2%. Despite an uptick in April, the bulk of the DMIs growth was driven by a surge in data center planning, while momentum in other nonresidential sectors lagged behind , stated Sarah Mar
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid.
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting. At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage rates, but in today's case, the damage was minimal. One thing to keep in mind is that mortgage rates don't change in real time with the market.
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch , but I'm still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and C
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 Monday: At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Services Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 80 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.29 per barrel and Brent at $61.29 per barrel.
From BofA (forecast, not tracking): GDP contracted by 0.3% q.q saar in 1Q, despite solid final demand (+2.3%). In our assessment, the surge in imports (which took 5.0pp off 1Q growth) due to front-running of tariffs was only partially reflected in stronger inventories and final demand. So we have revised our 2Q GDP forecast to reflect a reversal of this dynamic.
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.59%, down from 0.61% February. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in March 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Earlier: April Employment Report: 177 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging populati
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April: Tariff-Induced Buying Pumps U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales for Second Month in April (pay site). Tariff-related buying lifted sales over the past two months to a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 17.6 million , well above the roughly 16.0 million they would have totaled otherwise.
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 228,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast that payrolls rose 140k in April (vs. consensus +130k) and the unemployment rate was flat at 4.2%.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the February Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 79% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI was at 48.7% in April, down from 49.0% in March. The employment index was at 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.2%, up from 45.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 48.7% April 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row , following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of $2,135.8 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,688.0 billion, 0.6
The DOL reported : In the week ending April 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000 , an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average.
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