Calculated Risk

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Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force

Calculated Risk

The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through June 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago. Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic).

Education 173
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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: FHFA Releases National Mortgage Database

Calculated Risk

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Marketing 162
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Schedule for Week of July 6, 2025

Calculated Risk

This will be a very light week for economic data. -- Monday, July 7th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, July 8th -- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June. -- Wednesday, July 9th -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. 2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes , Meeting of June 17-18 -- Thursday, July 10th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

Economics 147
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Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving on Down

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP. From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.7%.

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June Employment Report: 147 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000.

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Comments on June Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined. The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%. NOTE: State and local government education hiring was reported at 63.5 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted).

Education 243
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Trade Deficit increased to $71.5 Billion in May

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.5 billion in May , up $11.3 billion from $60.3 billion in April, revised. May exports were $279.0 billion, $11.6 billion less than April exports. May imports were $350.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than April imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Economics 239