Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2025

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 22.9% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 13% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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282

Wealth Management

MAY 21, 2025

According to the Justice Department, Julie Anne Darrah would target elderly clients (some of whom were receiving end-of-life care), earn their trust and then steal their money.

Clients 266

Clients 266

The Big Picture

MAY 15, 2025

Hey, just back after taking the redeye home from Futureproof Colorado , and getting my feet back under me. But I wanted to briefly discuss tomorrow’s release of the University of Michigan (UMich) long-term inflation expectations. You probably know my thoughts on both Inflation Expectations and Sentiment Surveys. ICYMI, Inflation Expectations are a backwards looking exercise in the Recency Effect.

Media 211

Media Banking 211

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 16, 2025

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that Republicans in the House of Representatives this week released their long-awaited tax plan to address the impending sunset of many measures in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The proposed legislation makes several aspects of TCJA 'permanent', including maintaining TCJA's tax brackets and the elevated estate tax exemption, while also introducing new potential tax-savings op

Financial Planner 239

Financial Planner Financial Advice Education Taxes 239

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Clients

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2025

Podcasts Christine Benz talks with JL Collins about the revised edition of "The Simple Path to Wealth: Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free Life." (morningstar.com) Dan Haylett talks with Fritz Gilbert about his 10 Commandments of Retirement. (podcasts.apple.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Mark Higgins, author of "Investing in U.S.

Estate Planning 157

Estate Planning Financial Services Education Retirement 157

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: In Q1 2025, 19% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family Brief excerpt: Along with the monthly housing starts report for April released last week, the Census Bureau also released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q1 2025. The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent.

Numbers 263

Numbers 263

The Big Picture

MAY 21, 2025

Few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path… Maybe its time Steve Jobs stopped thinking quite so differently. BusinessWeek , May 21, 2001 24 years to the day — May 21, 2001 — a Businessweek1 commentary explained why the newfangled Apple Stores were destined to fail. This pronouncement motivated subsequent blog posts (notably in 2005 and 2021 ) and a full chapter in “ How Not to Invest.” In the spirit of t

Retail 197

Retail Media Electronics Investing 197

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 15, 2025

Young advisors may feel – and face – an extra burden to prove their expertise to clients. After all, it can feel odd to create an estate plan that will impact a client’s grandchildren… when those grandchildren may be older than the advisor themselves! And while any advisor needs to determine how much detail to share when explaining strategic decisions, younger advisors may feel added pressure to prove their credibility.

Financial Planning 147

Financial Planning Planning Communication Clients 147

Abnormal Returns

MAY 22, 2025

Books An excerpt from "Empire of AI: Dreams and Nightmares in San Altman's OpenAI." (theatlantic.com) An excerpt from "Superbloom: How Technologies of Connection Tear Us Apart" by Nicholas Carr. (behavioralscientist.org) Insights from Laura Spinneys new book, "Proto: How One Ancient Language Went Global." (slate.com) An excerpt from Tiffany Watt Smiths new book, "Bad Friend: How Women Revolutionized Modern Friendship.

Media 144

Media 144

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 for the month. Billings have declined for 28 of the last 31 months, since they first dipped back into negative territory following the post-pandemic boom.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investing 162

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

Management

Wealth Management

MAY 21, 2025

Ryan Nauman is joined by Joe Mallen, CEO of Modelist, to discuss the evolving landscape of wealth management and the increasing importance of customizable model portfolios, transparency, proactive communication, and adaptability in modern wealth management practices.

Portfolio 228

Portfolio Wealth Management Communication Management 228

The Big Picture

MAY 22, 2025

At The Money: The Art of Spending Money with Morgan Housel (May 22, 2025) Is there an art to spending your own money? We spend a lot of time discussing earning and investing money, but how often do we really think deeply about spending it? Morgan Housel wrote a new book, The Art of Spending Money, Simple Choices for a Richer Life. It arrives in October, where he discusses just that.

Investments 130

Investments Investing Food Valuation 130

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 19, 2025

Training programs for new financial advisors have traditionally followed a sales-focused, sink-or-swim approach that primarily paid on commission for product sales. While some of these programs still exist, the role of an associate advisor has evolved alongside the broader financial planning profession. In many advisory firms today, associate advisors don't begin with prospecting or running client meetings; instead, they start with back-end technical work, such as financial plan preparation, bef

Financial Planning 130

Financial Planning Communication Certification Planning 130

Abnormal Returns

MAY 22, 2025

Markets Japanese government bond yields are soaring. (ft.com) 30-year Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2007. (axios.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Steven Englander about why yields are rising around the world. (podcasts.apple.com) Strategy Investors learn the wrong lessons from bull markets. (novelinvestor.com) What to invest in when everything looks unattractive?

Investments 144

Investments Investing Government Media 144

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

MAY 16, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in April were at expectations and starts in February and March were revised up, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red). Total starts were down 1.7% in April compared to April 2024.

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214

Wealth Management

MAY 16, 2025

The move was accompanied by a set of FAQs on how to custody digital assets, and marked the latest step in the commissions effort to significantly reform its previous approach to cryptocurrencies.

Commission 254

Commission Assets 254

The Big Picture

MAY 20, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: John Montgomery, Bridgeway Capital Management , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

Management 130

Management Numbers Transportation Accounting 130

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 16, 2025

Consumer sentiment fell for a fifth straight month as ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation worries continue to drag down consumer attitudes. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in May, the second lowest reading on record.

Economics 114

Economics 114

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

MAY 16, 2025

Companies Charter Communications ($CHTR) and Cox Communications are merging. (cnbc.com) Meta's ($META) Facebook and Instagram are increasingly scam-filled. (wsj.com) How big an additional opportunity is experiences for Airbnb ($ABNB)? (platformaeronaut.com) Apple Apple ($AAPL) made a strategic mistake. (spyglass.org) Apple ($AAPL) is never going to make iPhones in the U.S.

Communication 167

Communication Media Economy Marketing 167

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2025

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. News of the downgrade broke with only minutes left in Friday's market/business day, so most of the response played out when global markets opened again late last night.

Financial Market 165

Financial Market Economics Marketing Marketing 165

Wealth Management

MAY 15, 2025

Jump, Zeplyn and Zocks, which can all capture meeting notes and create summaries, help generate client communications and trigger service actions, have now been integrated with the AdvisorEngine platform.

Communication 254

Communication Clients 254

The Big Picture

MAY 19, 2025

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: The Stealthy Lab Cooking Up Amazons SecretSauce : The online giant bought a mysterious chip startup 10 years ago. It now looks like one of the smartest deals in tech history. ( Wall Street Journal ) Warren Buffett Reveals He Stepped Down After Finally Feeling His Age : The legendary investor, 94, opens up about his decision to hand the top job to Greg Abel; How do you know the day that you become old?

Engineering 130

Engineering Startup Manufacturing Assets 130

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Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 15, 2025

Bill Sweet joined me on the show again to discuss questions from our audience about harvesting gains in your stock portfolio to diversify, remote work for less money versus going back to the office for more, mis-timing the market and picking the right benchmark for your investments. Further Reading: How Long Does it Take For Stocks to Bottom in a Bear Market?

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Marketing Marketing Investing 96

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2025

Markets High yield bonds have bounced back. (morningstar.com) Short interest is ticking higher. (ft.com) Companies Retailers have only so much margin to sacrifice to tariffs. (nytimes.com) Some additional tariff math. (axios.com) AI OpenAI is buying Jony Ive's AI startup. (theverge.com) Google ($GOOGL) has a big AI lever to pull - Chrome. (spyglass.org) What does CoreWeave ($CRWV) actually do?

Budgeting 157

Budgeting Math Startup Media 157

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.2 percent from April 2024. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month , and up 5.2 percent from April 2024.

Retail 194

Retail Sales Food 194

Wealth Management

MAY 19, 2025

Learn how to protect clients from tax penalties and missed opportunities as international business travel increases. Maximize portfolio performance across borders.

Taxes 249

Taxes Financial Advisor Portfolio Clients 249

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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

Sales

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2025

This week, I speak with John Montgomery , CEO, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Bridgeway Capital Management. His responsibilities include the firms strategic direction, investment management and risk oversight, portfolio management, and mentoring. John holds a Bachelor of Science in Engineering, a BA in Philosophy from Swarthmore College, and graduate degrees from MIT and Harvard Business School.

Management 130

Management Portfolio Management Transportation Engineering 130

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 15, 2025

Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in April, experiencing its largest monthly decline in five years. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.5% month-over-month after a flat reading in March. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.

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88

Abnormal Returns

MAY 19, 2025

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks with Ed Slott about the benefits of becoming an IRA expert. (kitces.com) Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand talk with Wade Pfau about the dangers of sequence of returns risk. (youtube.com) Advisortech How Robinhood's ($HOOD) robo-advisor works in practice. (riabiz.com) Basic Capital wants to bring leverage to your 401(k) plan.

CFP 144

CFP Clients Planning Sales 144

Calculated Risk

MAY 22, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY Excerpt: Sales in April (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.5% from the previous month and were 2.0% below the April 2024 sales rate. This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales 162

Sales 162

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management