The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully, these will allow you to gain a fresh perspective you might not have otherwise considered or perhaps even garner a better understanding of what is happening right here and now.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
Podcasts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Morgan Housel about how to think about money. (podcasts.apple.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Michael Santoli about the state of the stock market and economy. (morningstar.com) Home ownership House ownership isn't for everyone. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why you should keep track of the tax basis of your house.
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The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
When it comes to advising clients on student loan issues, many financial advisors might first think about recent graduates seeking advice regarding the most effective way to pay down their balances. However, the number of Federal student loan borrowers over the age of 50 has increased significantly in the past 20 years, with many of these borrowers holding Parent PLUS loans that were used to help fund their children's undergraduate education.
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Financial institutions continue to look to quantify the impact of new technologies. Meanwhile, business lending technologies have grown more popular in the industry. However, understanding the impact of said technologies means understanding how to increase your revenue while decreasing your costs. This is key for the growth of your organization. Biz2X created this eBook to analyze the ROI of business lending platforms and learn about the short-term and long-term benefits of said platforms.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
Family offices are relying more on salary increases and incentive compensation to compete for talent, according to a new survey by Morgan Stanley’s Single Family Office Advisory group.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 23, 2023
We did an astonishing amount of new content this week after being gone last week at the Future Proof event. Getting back in the saddle felt good, especially considering the amazing guests we had. Below is a link to the live stream we did with Zeke Faux, whose new book “Number Go Up” is packed with wild and hilarious stories about rise and fall of the crypto bubble.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 26, 2023
Alternatives Private market access funds are all the rage. (morningstar.com) Alternative assets are not all that alternative. (integratinginvestor.com) Will music royalties turn out to be a worthy investment? (wired.com) Asset allocation How various asset classes performed during a recession. (morningstar.com) Achieving these three portfolio goals simultaneously is tough.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
In the mid-20th century, the first phone call for a person who needed guidance on saving or planning for retirement was likely to be to a stockbroker or a mutual fund or insurance salesperson. But while some of these salespeople may have certainly been able to provide sound advice, there was really no way at that time for a consumer to know which among the many brokers and agents out there were actually capable of giving true and sound advice that would help them reach their goals.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
Mapped: The Migration of the World’s Millionaires in 2023 Source: Visual Capitalist The post Where’s Everyone Going? appeared first on The Big Picture.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 26, 2023
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►The ‘flation – 75% probability of a shutdown. ►Risks to the Economy – “A year of surprisingly strong growth is about to be tested by a strike, the possibility of a government shutdown, student loans.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
Rates Higher for longer, is the consensus. (wsj.com) Not surprisingly, 30-year mortgage rates are at 23-year highs. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Who is buying Treasuries at these yields? (ft.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. (capitalspectator.com) Dumb Money There are no heroes in 'Dumb Money.' (morningstar.com) The so-called bad guys in 'Dumb Money' are stronger than ever.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Investment Adviser Association has petitioned the SEC to ask the regulator to change how it defines a small adviser from one with less than $25 million under management to a firm with 100 or fewer employees. The group argued that this change would help more small firms, which tend not to have the same staffing and resources compared to their larger counterparts, as the
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Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
Preferred equity providers are increasingly looking to close financing gaps in the multifamily sector, according to Multi-Housing News. CoStar News looks into how the proliferation of AI is driving data center growth beyond their usual markets. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 23, 2023
This week, we speak with Armen Panossian , managing director and head of performing credit at Oaktree Capital Management , which has $179 billion in assets under management. He oversees the firm’s liquid and private credit strategies, and also serves as a portfolio manager within Oaktree’s global private debt and global credit strategies. He previously worked for Pequot Capital Management, where he worked on distressed debt strategy.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 26, 2023
The NFL is not spending enough time developing leadership: Former NFL GM Michael Lombardi from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
Books An excerpt from "Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization" by Coco Krumme. (engadget.com) An excerpt from Michael Wolff's new book, "The Fall: The End of Fox News and the Murdoch Dynasty." (theankler.com) A Q&A with Taylor Lorenz author of "Extremely Online: The Untold Story of Fame, Influence, and Power on the Internet." (vox.com) Health Is the 'war on cancer' a failure?
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
By applying artificial intelligence and Chat GPT to statements made by active fund managers, researchers have found that their underperformance can be partly explained by overconfidence that led to, among other things, excessive risk taking.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 24, 2023
Here are some things I believe about investing. 1. I believe simple beats complex. The problem is simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and appealing. 2. I believe the timing of buy or sell decisions matters less than your holding period. Picking tops and bottoms is for the lucky and the liars. Patiently holding onto your investments is more important for most investors than.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
My mid-week morning train reads: • 24 Things I Believe About Investing : Simple beats complex, timing matters less than your holding period, and a good strategy you can stick with is vastly superior to a great one you can’t. ( A Wealth of Common Sense ) • Even a Booming Economy Can’t Save Atlanta’s Office Market : Sunbelt city offers warning to others hoping to fill up office towers. ( Wall Street Journal ) • Private Equity’s Slow Carnage Unleashes a Wave of Zombies : A historic shakeup is thre
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
Stocks stage late-day comeback amid September slump from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
Cash Advisers are seeing more clients interested in cash. (etf.com) Higher yields are going to be a headwind for risky asset classes. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Finance Zero-day options make up 50% of the S&P 500 options volume. (ft.com) Betterment is closing two of its crypto strategies. (citywire.com) Companies Amazon ($AMZN) just made a big investment in AI startup Anthropic.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022. Here is a late September look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 24th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red).
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
Patrick “Pat” Ricketts and Mindy Helfrich of Vintage Financial Group have more than four decades of total industry experience and have worked together for more than 10 years.
Discipline Funds
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you’re getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we’ve seen since the mid-2000s so it’s a welcome change from the 10 years of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). In recent months I’ve heard the term “T-Bill and chill” more and more often.
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Generative AI (Artificial Intelligence) is poised to revolutionize the world of business lending. By understanding the impact and possibilities of Generative AI in business lending, banks can stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions. Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize how lenders make credit decisions, automate loan processes, and provide personalized customer experiences.
Trade Brains
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
India can become the 3rd largest economy by 2027 and even the 2nd largest by 2075, surpassing the US. But hold on! Isn’t it very soon to celebrate? Here’s a truth, a fact, or, you can say, a reality, that we are not yet ready to accept. The increasing youth unemployment! 66% of India’s population (that’s 808 million people) is under the age of 35. Now, that’s a huge number of young, talented people, and a great opportunity for the country to grow its economy with multitalented and skilled
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks the business of podcasting with Danny Miranda. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Johnny Miller about the attraction of listening to podcast on 2x. (podcasts.apple.com) Zeke Faux Joshua Brown and Michael Batnick talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." (youtube.com) Aaron Lammer, Max Linsky, and Evan Ratliff talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 22, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
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