The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2025
A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022.
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Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 22, 2025
Financial advisors often engage with a variety of prospects, each with unique needs and motivations. Some prospects approach an advisor with an immediate 'problem to be solved', such as a fast-approaching retirement date. These situations often narrow the focus of the prospecting conversation, giving the advisor a clear opportunity to affirm their value (e.g., "I help clients in retirement by doing X, Y, and Z.").
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 23, 2025
Books An excerpt from "Gambling Man: The Secret Story of the World's Greatest Disruptor, Masayoshi Son" by Lionel Barber. (politico.com) An excerpt from "The Siren's Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource" by Chris Hayes. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Mnica Guzmn, author of "Never Thought of It That Way: How to Have Fearlessly Curious Conversations in Dangerously Divided Times.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 10, 2025
BofA announced it hired Ed Riley and Jessica Mullin several days after unveiling its new advisory group for ultra-high-net-worth clients based out of its Merrill Wealth division.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 14, 2025
One of my favorite market datasets just got its annual update. Aswath Damodaran at NYU publishes a yearly update of returns for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10 year Treasuries), cash (3-month T-bills), real estate, gold and inflation going back to 1928. Plus this year he added small caps to the mix.1 These are the long-term returns for each asset class from 1928-2024: Stocks +9.94% Small caps +11.74% Bonds +4.50% Cash +3.
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Calculated Risk
JANUARY 29, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 9, 2025
While financial advisors offer valuable services for their clients, it can sometimes be challenging to gauge how much clients actually value those services. On one hand, a client's willingness to pay an ongoing fee for financial advice suggests that they find the advisor's services worthwhile. On the other hand, the term "financial advice" often refers to much more than asset allocation and wealth management.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 14, 2025
Strategy Vanguard investors are letting their equity allocations drift higher. (jeffreyptak.substack.com) It's counterintuitive, but frictions can make for better investors. (behaviouralinvestment.com) The markets are a mirror. (safalniveshak.com) Companies Corporate spinoffs are getting bigger and more complex. (axios.com) Databricks is raising venture debt.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 22, 2025
In 2024, 40% of the new ETFs listed in the U.S. used derivatives as a significant component of their investment strategy, up from 20% in 2014.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 21, 2025
One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. We’ve been in a recession just 1% of the time since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in the summer of 2009. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 17, 2025
This week, we speak with Jonathan Clements. He has been a personal finance reporter at the Wall Street Journal for over twenty years and has written more than 1,000 columns. He discusses how he became a financial journalist, and eventually Director of Financial Education for Citi Personal Wealth Management. Last summer, Jonathan received a terminal diagnosis and announced it at his site and on social meda.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment market conditions declined in the National Multifamily Housing Councils (NMHCs) most recent Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 7, 2025
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 419th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Peter Krull. Pete is the Director of Sustainable Investing of Earth Equity Advisors, an RIA based in Asheville, North Carolina, that oversees approximately $200 million in assets under management for 250 client households. What's unique about Pete, though, is how he has grown his firm by exploring with clients how they can align their portfolios with their own personal values,
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 15, 2025
Podcasts Khe Hy talks with Christine Benz author of "How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement." (youtube.com) Dan Haylett talks with Dr. Jordan Grumet author of "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness, and Leave a Lasting Legacy." (humansvsretirement.com) Peter Lazaroff on what you need to know when choosing a financial advisor.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 23, 2025
The combined startups will provide advisors with seamless health planning from analysis to enrollment once integrations are complete.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 17, 2025
Derek Thompson wrote the story of the year so far at The Atlantic about how anti-social we’ve become as a society: Some facts and figures from Derek’s excellent piece: 74% of all restaurant traffic is takeout or delivery (up from 61% pre-Covid) The share of people have dinner or drinks with friends on any given night has declined by more than 30% in the past 20 years.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 20, 2025
@TBPInvictus here: Last year finished with a flourish. The work I do here was directly responsible for the Hoover Institution retracting six (yes, 6) of its articles. Whether it was shoddy data analysis or a deliberate attempt to misinform, I found it offensive and brought the receipts as to the fundamental errors in the economic analysis. Most of the retractions concerned California’s April 1, 2024, increase in the minimum wage for “quick-serve restaurants” (QSR, also known as
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 7, 2025
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November , up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 23, 2025
Since the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the mainstream technological landscape, conversations about which areas of the financial planning industry would be most likely impacted by AI have proliferated. These discussions have ranged from questioning whether everyone would be out of a job in five years to wondering if anything of substance would change at all.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 14, 2025
C-suite Narcissistic CEOs take unnecessary risks. (on.ft.com) Why some female CEOs get downgraded by investors. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) The bigger a firm gets, the more it spends on lobbying. (papers.ssrn.com) Research How much of the S&P 500's returns in 2024 came from idiosyncratic factors? (mailchi.mp) Don't forget that active ETFs can be sold short.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 15, 2025
Helping clients address the roots of large societal problems is about more than writing checks.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 3, 2025
In 2022, it was a bad year for the markets. At the time I wrote about how it was maybe one of the worst years ever when you consider bonds had a bear market at the same time as stocks. Last year I wrote about how 2023 was agood year which was nice because sometimes bad years are followed by bad years. I followed that up writing about how good years in the markets tend to cluster: Well, the S&P 500 was up 25% in 202.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 24, 2025
This week, we speak with Mike Freno , Chairman and CEO at Barings. The firm is owned by Mass Mutual, and half of its $431 billion in invested assets are from the insurance giant, with the rest coming from institutional investors. Over 20 years with the firm, Freno has held various positions including Managing Director, Head of Global High Yield, and Head of Global Markets.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 14, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-January provides a snapshot of the current housing market. I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale ! Im watching months-of-supply closely. New home inventory, as a percentage of total inventory, is still very high.
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 31, 2025
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that following the change of administration (and a new incoming chair of the SEC), the Investment Adviser Association is seeking to find ways to help RIAs (particularly smaller firms) manage the compliance responsibilities they face.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 12, 2025
Also on the site When the world is in flux, experience could actually be a detriment. (abnormalreturns.com) You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app) Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why the CAPE ratio should be higher today than it was in the past. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The equity risk premium is negative.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 9, 2025
Security is becoming a central consideration in structuring everything from family offices to succession plans.
Zoe Financial
JANUARY 28, 2025
Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. What do these mean, and which is a sounder investment strategy? Lets take a poll. Raise your hand if youve ever heard someone brag about how they bought Amazon stock right before its share price doubled.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 21, 2025
The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Jonathan Clements on Why Dying is Hard Work , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio Barry Ritholtz : This week on the podcast.
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