The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2025
A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022.
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Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 22, 2025
Financial advisors often engage with a variety of prospects, each with unique needs and motivations. Some prospects approach an advisor with an immediate 'problem to be solved', such as a fast-approaching retirement date. These situations often narrow the focus of the prospecting conversation, giving the advisor a clear opportunity to affirm their value (e.g., "I help clients in retirement by doing X, Y, and Z.").
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 23, 2025
Books An excerpt from "Gambling Man: The Secret Story of the World's Greatest Disruptor, Masayoshi Son" by Lionel Barber. (politico.com) An excerpt from "The Siren's Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource" by Chris Hayes. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Mnica Guzmn, author of "Never Thought of It That Way: How to Have Fearlessly Curious Conversations in Dangerously Divided Times.
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Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i
Wealth Management
JANUARY 10, 2025
BofA announced it hired Ed Riley and Jessica Mullin several days after unveiling its new advisory group for ultra-high-net-worth clients based out of its Merrill Wealth division.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 14, 2025
One of my favorite market datasets just got its annual update. Aswath Damodaran at NYU publishes a yearly update of returns for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10 year Treasuries), cash (3-month T-bills), real estate, gold and inflation going back to 1928. Plus this year he added small caps to the mix.1 These are the long-term returns for each asset class from 1928-2024: Stocks +9.94% Small caps +11.74% Bonds +4.50% Cash +3.
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Calculated Risk
JANUARY 29, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 9, 2025
While financial advisors offer valuable services for their clients, it can sometimes be challenging to gauge how much clients actually value those services. On one hand, a client's willingness to pay an ongoing fee for financial advice suggests that they find the advisor's services worthwhile. On the other hand, the term "financial advice" often refers to much more than asset allocation and wealth management.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 12, 2025
Also on the site When the world is in flux, experience could actually be a detriment. (abnormalreturns.com) You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app) Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why the CAPE ratio should be higher today than it was in the past. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The equity risk premium is negative.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 22, 2025
In 2024, 40% of the new ETFs listed in the U.S. used derivatives as a significant component of their investment strategy, up from 20% in 2014.
Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA
In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 21, 2025
One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. We’ve been in a recession just 1% of the time since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in the summer of 2009. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 15, 2025
At the Money: Lessons in Allocating to Alternative Asset Classes. (January, 15, 2025) Hedge funds, venture capital, private equity, and private credit have never been more popular. Investors have lots of questions when allocating to these asset classes: How much capital do you need? What percentage of your portfolio should be allocated? Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Ted Seides is founder and CIO of Capital Allocators , and learned about alts working under the legendar
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment market conditions declined in the National Multifamily Housing Councils (NMHCs) most recent Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 7, 2025
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 419th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Peter Krull. Pete is the Director of Sustainable Investing of Earth Equity Advisors, an RIA based in Asheville, North Carolina, that oversees approximately $200 million in assets under management for 250 client households. What's unique about Pete, though, is how he has grown his firm by exploring with clients how they can align their portfolios with their own personal values,
Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP
The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 15, 2025
Podcasts Khe Hy talks with Christine Benz author of "How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement." (youtube.com) Dan Haylett talks with Dr. Jordan Grumet author of "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness, and Leave a Lasting Legacy." (humansvsretirement.com) Peter Lazaroff on what you need to know when choosing a financial advisor.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 23, 2025
The combined startups will provide advisors with seamless health planning from analysis to enrollment once integrations are complete.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 17, 2025
Derek Thompson wrote the story of the year so far at The Atlantic about how anti-social we’ve become as a society: Some facts and figures from Derek’s excellent piece: 74% of all restaurant traffic is takeout or delivery (up from 61% pre-Covid) The share of people have dinner or drinks with friends on any given night has declined by more than 30% in the past 20 years.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 24, 2025
This week, we speak with Mike Freno , Chairman and CEO at Barings. The firm is owned by Mass Mutual, and half of its $431 billion in invested assets are from the insurance giant, with the rest coming from institutional investors. Over 20 years with the firm, Freno has held various positions including Managing Director, Head of Global High Yield, and Head of Global Markets.
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Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 7, 2025
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November , up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 23, 2025
Since the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the mainstream technological landscape, conversations about which areas of the financial planning industry would be most likely impacted by AI have proliferated. These discussions have ranged from questioning whether everyone would be out of a job in five years to wondering if anything of substance would change at all.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 14, 2025
C-suite Narcissistic CEOs take unnecessary risks. (on.ft.com) Why some female CEOs get downgraded by investors. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) The bigger a firm gets, the more it spends on lobbying. (papers.ssrn.com) Research How much of the S&P 500's returns in 2024 came from idiosyncratic factors? (mailchi.mp) Don't forget that active ETFs can be sold short.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 15, 2025
Helping clients address the roots of large societal problems is about more than writing checks.
Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 7, 2025
The first asset allocation quilt I created for this site covered the ten-year period from 2005-2014. Those returns look nothing like the last 10 years which is the whole point of this exercise. Here’s the latest quilt: Some observations: Inflation outperformed TIPS.The average inflation rate over the past 10 years was around 2.9% annually. Treasury-inflation protected securities were up 2.1% annually over the sam.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 18, 2025
I wanted to share a quick update as to what’s been keeping me occupied during the run up to the release of the new book. The past few weeks have been pretty busy and full of surprises. We have been designing a dedicated website for the How Not to Invest book, and working with the team at Off Menu has been much more fun than I expected. But the biggest surprise has been the booksAudible version.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 14, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-January provides a snapshot of the current housing market. I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale ! Im watching months-of-supply closely. New home inventory, as a percentage of total inventory, is still very high.
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 24, 2025
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that while overall financial advisor headcount remains relatively flat, the RIA channel continues to gain share in terms of both headcount (as brokers break away to start their own independent firms and aspiring advisors seek positions that don't rely on an 'eat what you kill' approach) and assets managed (as consumers might be attracted to the differentiated service prop
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 1, 2025
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Michael Batnick about lessons learned from the stock market in 2024. (peterlazaroff.com) Khe Hy talks with Dr. Jordan Grumet about finding your life purpose. (youtube.com) Taxes Trading crypto? Pay your taxes. (axios.com) Consider doing Roth IRA conversions for your heirs. (financialducksinarow.com) Returns Chasing higher bank interest rates is losing its appeal.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 9, 2025
Security is becoming a central consideration in structuring everything from family offices to succession plans.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 3, 2025
In 2022, it was a bad year for the markets. At the time I wrote about how it was maybe one of the worst years ever when you consider bonds had a bear market at the same time as stocks. Last year I wrote about how 2023 was agood year which was nice because sometimes bad years are followed by bad years. I followed that up writing about how good years in the markets tend to cluster: Well, the S&P 500 was up 25% in 202.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 8, 2025
SPOTIFY EMBED St. Vincent – Digital Witness [link] Digital witnesses, what’s the point of even sleeping? If I can’t show it, if you can’t see me What’s the point of doing anything? This is no time for confessing At The Money: with Matt Hougan on Crypto Technology (January 8, 2025) Are you crypto-curious? Are you interested in owning some bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto-coins?
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.
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