Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 2, 2025

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 manufacturing for a third straight month. in May, indicating contraction in U.S. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.

Manufacturing 84

Manufacturing Management 84

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2024

The key reports this week are the October Case-Shiller house price indexes, the December ISM manufacturing survey and December vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 30th -- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. The consensus is for a 0.7% in November.

Manufacturing 276

Manufacturing Sales Management 276

Calculated Risk

JUNE 14, 2025

For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged. -- Monday, June 16th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. up from -4.0 last month.

Retail 179

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 179

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November. • . • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 730 thousand SAAR, down from 738 thousand in September.

Sales 249

Sales Manufacturing 249

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of Districts. Contacts in manufacturing, ranging from petrochemical products to office equipment, expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes. Vehicle sales were modestly lower on balance.

Economics 194

Economics Manufacturing Food Transportation 194

Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production report and the March NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, March 17th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a 0.7%

Retail 191

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 191

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, up from -11.9. •

Retail 260

Retail Sales Manufacturing 260

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output declined 0.1 In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percent in January, held down by a 5.2 percent decrease in the index for motor vehicles and parts.

Manufacturing 179

Manufacturing 179

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Construction employment increased slightly, while manufacturing employment was flat. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth.

Economics 162

Economics Nonprofit Manufacturing Transportation 162

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 28, 2025

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing Banking 52

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2025

The ISM manufacturing employment index decreased to 44.7%, down from 47.6% This would suggest about 50,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 21,000 manufacturing jobs added in March. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing Government Numbers 173

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 27, 2025

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing 52

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

30 year fixed 6.98% ] emphasis added Tuesday: At 10:00 AM ET, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. Mortgage rates jumped fairly sharply today, with the average lender moving up from 6.87% to just under 7.00% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. [

Manufacturing 191

Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 191

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Temporary help services lost jobs.

Manufacturing 306

Manufacturing Government 306

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

For manufacturing, the February Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, February 24th -- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. The consensus is for a 4.5% in November. The consensus is for a 1.8% The consensus is for a 1.2%

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Management 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for April. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 218 thousand, down from 222 thousand last week. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.1, down from 49.0 Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for March.

Sales 226

Sales Manufacturing 226

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2025

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 13th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, January 14th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. The consensus is for 0.3% down from 0.2.

Retail 162

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2024

For manufacturing, the November Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week. -- Monday, November 18th -- 10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. down from 10.3.

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing Sales Numbers Economics 173

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -6.0. At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The ISM manufacturing employment index increased to 50.3%, up from 45.4% This would suggest about 15,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 13,000 manufacturing jobs lost in January. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2025

The ISM manufacturing employment index decreased to was at 45.3%, down from 48.1%. This would suggest about 45,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 11,000 manufacturing jobs lost in December. The ISM services employment index decreased to 51.4% from 51.5%.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 19, 2025

Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

The ISM manufacturing employment index 46.5%, up from 44.7% This would suggest about 40,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 4,000 manufacturing jobs added in April. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). the previous month.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Government Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 15, 2025

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025 Monday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 17 and DOW futures are down 134 (fair value). per barrel and Brent at $76.72

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2025

Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January. The National Index was up 3.6% YoY in October and is expected to be up about the same in November. At 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2024

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2025

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April. -- Friday, April 25th -- 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 4.14

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

At 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. At 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.410 million SAAR, down from 1.501 million SAAR in February. The consensus is for a reading of 6.7, down from 12.5.

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2025

percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Manufacturing was the weakest we've seen since spring. From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 146,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.8% Private sector employment increased by 146,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 4.8 Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.”

Financial Services 162

Financial Services Manufacturing Economy 162

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 8, 2025

disciplinefunds.com) Alex Tabarrok, "Ensuring a robust manufacturing sector depends on sound domestic policies, innovation, and workforce development, rather than trying to devalue the currency or curtail trade." marginalrevolution.com) Tariffs alone won't bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

Manufacturing 144

Manufacturing Media Government Economy 144

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0,

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 2, 2025

owns RV manufacturer Forest River? axios.com) Economy Where manufacturing jobs are increasing. (humbledollar.com) Finance The structured finance industry is back, and is set to be bigger than ever. wsj.com) How carried interest calculations work in practice. cashandcarried.substack.com) Did you know Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A)

Manufacturing 157

Manufacturing Government Media Economy 157

Calculated Risk

APRIL 23, 2025

Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of Districts said activity was little changed or had declined. Loan demand was flat to modestly higher, on net. Several Districts saw a deterioration in demand for non-financial services. Transportation activity expanded modestly, on balance. The energy sector experienced modest growth.

Economics 194

Economics Transportation Government Financial Services 194

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Other key indicators include the October Trade Deficit, the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 2nd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday. The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%. The consensus is for 0.2%

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, down from 18.0.

Sales 162

Sales Manufacturing 162

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 2, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) The November ISM manufacturing index remains weak-ish. (hollywoodreporter.com) 'Moana 2' just had the biggest five-day opening in history. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. bonddad.blogspot.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: loving clients' problems.

Communication 157

Communication Manufacturing Media Banking 157