The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully, these will allow you to gain a fresh perspective you might not have otherwise considered or perhaps even garner a better understanding of what is happening right here and now.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
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Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 21, 2023
Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com) Books A review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
By applying artificial intelligence and Chat GPT to statements made by active fund managers, researchers have found that their underperformance can be partly explained by overconfidence that led to, among other things, excessive risk taking.
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Financial institutions continue to look to quantify the impact of new technologies. Meanwhile, business lending technologies have grown more popular in the industry. However, understanding the impact of said technologies means understanding how to increase your revenue while decreasing your costs. This is key for the growth of your organization. Biz2X created this eBook to analyze the ROI of business lending platforms and learn about the short-term and long-term benefits of said platforms.
Discipline Funds
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you’re getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we’ve seen since the mid-2000s so it’s a welcome change from the 10 years of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). In recent months I’ve heard the term “T-Bill and chill” more and more often.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023
Way back in 2017, I wrote about how bananas Canadian housing prices were. This was the chart I used at the time: Canada basically skipped the housing bust from the Great Financial Crisis. Well, things got even more bananas in the ensuing years. Here’s the updated version: Canadian housing prices can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent or something like that.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 27, 2023
Podcasts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Morgan Housel about how to think about money. (podcasts.apple.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Michael Santoli about the state of the stock market and economy. (morningstar.com) Home ownership House ownership isn't for everyone. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why you should keep track of the tax basis of your house.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 29, 2023
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Trade Brains
SEPTEMBER 17, 2023
Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs : Goldman Sachs has been serving clients in India since the 1980s and established an onshore presence in Bengaluru, in 2004, Mumbai, India in December 2006 and a new office in Hyderabad opened in 2021 following a ten-year joint venture. Today, Goldman employs 9000+ Indians and serves leading corporate and institutional clients through corporate finance advisory, equity sales and trading, and fixed-income securities businesses, as well as providing macro-e
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 9, 2023
This week, we speak with Jon McAuliffe , who is co-founder and chief investment officer at the Voleon Group , heading the firm’s investment strategy, research, and development. Previously, he developed and managed statistical arbitrage trading strategies at D.E.Shaw. McAuliffe has a unique track record of successful innovation applying statistical methods to real-life prediction problems, particularly in the financial markets.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 24, 2023
Here are some things I believe about investing. 1. I believe simple beats complex. The problem is simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and appealing. 2. I believe the timing of buy or sell decisions matters less than your holding period. Picking tops and bottoms is for the lucky and the liars. Patiently holding onto your investments is more important for most investors than.
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Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 10, 2023
Also on the site Public predictions are exhausting. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How investors should re-think about their bond allocations. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What investors get wrong about the 'Yale Model.' (capitalallocators.com) How investors should think about their bond allocations. (blog.validea.com) How an inverted yield curve affects stock and bond market returns.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022. Here is a late September look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 24th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red).
Trade Brains
SEPTEMBER 22, 2023
Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
Preferred equity providers are increasingly looking to close financing gaps in the multifamily sector, according to Multi-Housing News. CoStar News looks into how the proliferation of AI is driving data center growth beyond their usual markets. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 16, 2023
This week, we speak with Elizabeth Burton , managing director and client investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. She advises institutional clients on investment strategies and portfolio objectives, working alongside global client advisers and product strategists across public and private markets. Previously, she was CIO at the Employees’ Retirement System of the State of Hawaii, and managing director in the quantitative strategies group at the Maryland State Retirement Age
Mr. Money Mustache
SEPTEMBER 4, 2023
Whoa, have you seen what just happened to interest rates!? Suddenly, after at least fourteen years of our financial world being mostly the same, somebody flipped over the table and now things are quite different. Interest rates, which have been gliding along at close to zero since before the Dawn of Mustachianism in 2011, have suddenly shot back up to 20-year highs. – Which brings up a few questions about whether we need to worry, or do anything about this new development.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 26, 2023
Alternatives Private market access funds are all the rage. (morningstar.com) Alternative assets are not all that alternative. (integratinginvestor.com) Will music royalties turn out to be a worthy investment? (wired.com) Asset allocation How various asset classes performed during a recession. (morningstar.com) Achieving these three portfolio goals simultaneously is tough.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 26, 2023
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued its climb in July, coming in at 409.5. U.S. house prices increased by 0.8% from the previous month and by 4.6% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% month-over-month and up 3.4% year-over-year.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 18, 2023
One way to mitigate the impact of a failed exchange is “tax straddling,” which involves timing the exchange so the sale falls in one tax year and the receipt of proceeds in the following year.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 7, 2023
A reader asks: My job is to run a concentrated 20 company portfolio (all listed companies, buy and hold, long term horizon etc.). I get a base salary and a bonus for performance. So a good amount of my annual earnings are tied to the performance of the companies I pick. I also have a small personal investment account. My question is around how I should think about investing this – should I use the fact that I spend.
Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®
Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 19, 2023
Trend following Trend following ignore narratives. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) How trend following can help diversify a portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) ESG Green investing strategies should be lower risk. (alphaarchitect.com) ESG leaders have been outperforming the market. (bloomberg.com) Behavior How scarcity affects decision making. (sciencedaily.com) The marshmallow effect and investment performance.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 5, 2023
The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for August today. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.
Fintoo
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
Highlights Issue Size –: 235,294,118 shares Issue Open/Close – Sept 25 /Sept 27, 2023 Price Band (Rs.) 113 – 119 Issue Size (Rs.) – 28,000 mn Face Value (Rs) 2 Lot Size (shares) 126 JSW group arm JSW Infrastructure incorporated in 2006, is the fastest expanding port-related infrastructure company in terms of installed cargo handling […] The post JSW Infrastructure IPO (Subscribe) appeared first on Fintoo Blog.
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