April, 2024

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A Short History of Stocks

The Big Picture

Confused about where we are today? A favorite exercise is to go back to first principles to consider how we got to where we are. (That is a favorite way to find fresh insights). On the equity side, you have to go back a century or so. Equities were considered speculative endeavors, best suited for gamblers and punters. The exceptions? A handful of “Widows & Orphan” stocks, like Ma Bell, some railroads, utilities and the rare bank that was not suffering regular runs.

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Helping Aging Parents Manage and Protect Their Finances

Carson Wealth

Your parents taught you everything you know about money. From opening your first checking account to taking out your first car loan, they were always there to guide you. But as your parents get older, they may begin turning to you for help with their finances. How do you begin to navigate this new reverse dynamic? It’s not always easy. There are both practical and emotional challenges to consider before you step in and take over your parents’ financial situation.

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2024.

Food 128
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Fidelity Introduces Organic Growth ‘Hub’

Wealth Management

The suite of prospecting, client retention and efficiency resources was developed in response to research that found more than half of advisors are having trouble landing new clients.

Clients 109
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Is Auto Insurance Becoming a Crisis?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I was perusing the BLS data following the inflation release last week and one number sticks out like Victor Wembanyana standing next to a group of kindergartners. Auto insurance was up 22% over the previous 12 months versus an overall inflation rate of 3.5%. Look at the change in auto insurance rates these past few years: It’s like a meme stock.

Insurance 122

More Trending

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What Recession? State Coincident Indicators

The Big Picture

Between book leave and COVID I have been pretty quiet lately. Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening.

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Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Rises to 2.1% in March

Advisor Perspectives

Wholesale inflation heated up last month but came in slightly lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.6% in February to 2.1% in March.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 12, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economy 121
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Cresset Adds Former First Republic Teams with $5B Fleeing J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Wealth Management

The RIA said it was acquiring the two San Francisco-based teams. This follows last week’s announcements that multi-billion-dollar former First Republic teams had joined Merrill Lynch and Citizens Bank.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Generational Luck in the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Millennials around my age group graduated into the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. The labor market stunk and not just for a short while. The unemployment rate in America averaged nearly 7% from 2006 through the end of 2015: It was hard for young people to find work. And if you did find a job it probably wasn’t something you actually wanted to do.

Marketing 130
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Don’t Be Afraid

The Irrelevant Investor

I want to talk about the feelings we get when putting money to work at all-time highs. But first, a quick programming note. Two of the things I love the most are movies and business. Nobody talks about the intersection of my two favorite topics like Matt Belloni. I read him every week at Puck and listen to him every week on The Ringer’s The Town.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • He Loves Speed, Hates Bureaucracy and Told Ferrari: Go Faster : A tech executive with a new management strategy took the wheel of the luxury carmaker. Then it was off to the races. ( Wall Street Journal ) • Boeing’s problems were as bad as you thought : Experts and whistleblowers testified before Congress today.

Investing 267
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NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Falls to Lowest Level Since 2012

Advisor Perspectives

The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 88.5 in March, the lowest level since 20212. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 88.8 and marked the 27th straight month the index has been below the series average of 98.0.

Numbers 119
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 29, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 128
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Lawsuit: Ex-CMO Charges Carson Group With Turning Blind Eye to Sexual Assault

Wealth Management

Mary Kate Gulick claimed to be psychologically 'broken like a twig' from Carson’s lack of response to allegations an employee sexually assaulted a conference attendee, according to a lawsuit filed in Nebraska federal court.

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Who is Buying a House in this Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

According to Redfin, we just hit another new all-time high in the median monthly payment (based on current home prices and mortgage rates): The median payment for a new purchase has doubled since 2021. Mortgage rates were back up to 7.4% this week. Nationwide housing prices are still are all-time highs and up around 50% since the end of 2019. There has been this feeling of something has to give for a while now but nothi.

Marketing 118
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NAIFA Trustee Kagawa Honored for Public Service

NAIFA Advisor Today

Congratulations to NAIFA Trustee Stephen Kagawa , LUTCF, FSS, on being named the 71 st recipient of NAIFA-Los Angeles ’s Will G. Farrell Public Service Award. The CEO and Chairman of the Board of The Pacific Bridge Companies has been a loyal NAIFA member since 1986.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Is Sector Neutrality in Factor Investing a Mistake?

Alpha Architect

The justification for neutralizing sectors in factor strategies is a work in progress. To date, academic researchers haven't had an empirical model to mimic the impact of removing sector "effects" on the measurement and performance of factor strategies. The authors develop and test a two-component model to address the question of, "Is Sector Neutrality in Factor Investing a Mistake?

Investing 108
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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Unchanged in March

Advisor Perspectives

In March, nominal home values increased for an 12th straight months while "real" home values were unchanged. Last month's ZHVI came in at $354,179, up 0.44% from the previous month and up 4.09% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.00% month-over-month and -1.71% year-over-year.

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Comments on March Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 49 thousand jobs in March and is now above pre-pandemic levels.

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Mastering Succession: Insights from Berkshire Hathaway's Playbook

Wealth Management

Berkshire Hathaway's succession plan is an invaluable case study for businesses of all sizes, exemplifying the importance of forward-thinking leadership and strategic planning.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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A Necessary Evil in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

In the early-1980s, Robert Shiller set out to answer the question: Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? The idea was to figure out how well the stock market tracks the present value of future cash flows in the short-term. Shiller concluded that, no, stock prices do not neatly track fundamentals. He updated that data in his book Irrational Exuberance: The cash flows move very l.

Marketing 108
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Direct plans of mutual funds offer much higher returns than regular plans, more than the difference in their expense ratio

Truemind Capital

Do you know that direct plans of mutual funds offer much higher returns than regular plans, more than the difference in their expense ratio? To know better, read it till the end. Every mutual fund scheme has two plans to offer – Regular & Direct. Both plans have the same fund manager and the same portfolio. The only difference is the expense ratio.

Planning 105
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Mike Francesa on my Podcast

The Irrelevant Investor

Here I am in 2015 at Bar A on the Jersey Shore to watch Mike Francesa record a live radio show. And here I am, nearly ten years later, recording a podcast with him. If you don’t know who Mike Francesa is, he created sports talk radio as we know it today. I’m not exaggerating. ESPN did a 30 for 30 on Mike and the Mad Dog. My friends and I all grew up listening to these guys in the car with our dads.

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Existing Home Sales Experience Largest Decline in 16 Months

Advisor Perspectives

Existing home sales experienced their largest monthly decline in over a year in March. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.3% from February to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 4.20 million. Existing home sales are down 3.7% compared to one year ago.

Sales 108
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.4% year-over-year in February 2024 SA

Calculated Risk

This is something I check occasionally. The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported : • Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.0% (+4.8 billion vehicle miles) for February 2024 as compared with February 2023. Travel for the month is estimated to be 240.2 billion vehicle miles. • The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for February 2024 is 274.8 billion miles, a +1.4% ( +3.9 billion vehicle miles) change over February 2023.

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J.D. Power: DIY Investors’ Satisfaction 'Stagnates' Despite Rising Market

Wealth Management

According to J.D. Power’s annual survey on self-directed investors, Fidelity took the top marks for DIY investors seeking guidance, with Charles Schwab following closely behind.

Marketing 113
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How to Lie With Charts

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader sent me the following chart asking for my thoughts: I honestly don’t know who the creator of this chart is. I don’t know the intention of it either but the fact that the title contains the word collapse makes it sound scary. Knowing that housing prices in the U.S. are at all-time highs makes this chart seem suspect, but the data checks out.

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