The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma

Advertising 317

Advertising Economics Economy Banking 317

Abnormal Returns

MAY 4, 2024

EVs What is going to become of Tesla's ($TSLA) charging network? (washingtonpost.com) Do EVs need artificial noises? (axios.com) Autos Automatic braking will soon be a standard, required feature on cars. (theverge.com) Do you really want a GM ($GM) car without Apple CarPlay? (bloomberg.com) What goes into a VIN? (theconversation.com) Energy Why Plant Vogle could be the last large scale nuclear power plants built in the U.S.

Medicine 270

Medicine Food Financial Advising Media 270

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 14, 2024

A lot of investors have abandoned international diversification (or at least strongly considered it) in recent years. I understand why this is happening. The U.S. stock market has destroyed all comers ever since the Great Financial Crisis ended. Since 2009, a total U.S. stock market index fund is up more than 660% while a total international index fund is up more like 180%.

Marketing 144

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Assets 144

Alpha Architect

MAY 31, 2024

There is strong empirical evidence demonstrating that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Ma, Yang, and Ye’s findings provide another test of both robustness and pervasiveness, increasing our confidence that the findings of momentum in asset prices are not a result of data mining.

Assets 141

Assets Investing Investments 141

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Planning

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 19, 2024

Few practices in the business world are as absurd, senseless, irrational, and cynical as the allocation of investments of large public pension funds and endowments. And few fail so often and so predictably to achieve their true objectives.

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Investing Investments 136

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2024

It’s taken me months to organize all of my research for my next book project; it’s a lot of stuff, some dating back to 2000. Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. A lot of it has not aged well. But every now and then, something I saved turned out to be prescient — not because it was lucky, but because it contained a well-considered insight that has stood the test of time.

Numbers 284

Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 284

Abnormal Returns

MAY 19, 2024

Top clicks this week Three assets that don't diversify your portfolio as well as you think. (morningstar.com) The problematic math of passing down generational wealth. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) International diversification requires a long time horizon. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The S&P 500 is now nearly 40% of global market cap. (apolloacademy.com) Don't confuse selling calls with income.

Math 262

Math Assets Portfolio Marketing 262

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 17, 2024

These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.

Marketing 141

Marketing Marketing 141

Alpha Architect

MAY 24, 2024

There is strong empirical evidence demonstrating that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Momentum Everywhere, Even Cross-Country Factor Momentum was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 130

Assets Investing Investments 130

Speaker: Don Gallianza, Credit Manager at Chevron Phillips Chemical and Indy Chakrabarti, Chief Marketing Officer at HighRadius

4 Case Studies to Optimize DSO 26 Days Sales Outstanding. Already better than most. But, should you improve on that? Why would 3 fewer days even matter? It matters because it fundamentally transforms business outcomes. Join this webinar to explore 4 things companies do to reclaim hard dollars - not just soft costs - and go from good to great! What You'll Learn 6 operational KPIs every AR manager should track: Define and track these metrics to enhance performance, drive efficiency, and make infor

Sales

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 31, 2024

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 35.4 in May from 37.9 in April. This is the sixth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since May 2020. The latest reading is worse than the 41.1 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a sixth consecutive month.

Management 135

Management 135

Calculated Risk

MAY 7, 2024

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 198.4, a decline of 14.0% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index magnified the results for the month, resulting in a 2.3% month-over-month decrease.

Consulting 129

Consulting Sales 129

Trade Brains

MAY 10, 2024

Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern: Technical analysts rely heavily on chart and candlestick patterns to conduct comprehensive analyses of stock prices and accurately predict their future movements. Each pattern formed in the market has a clear and justified reason behind its formation and indicates the market’s direction. Here in this article, we shall discuss a two-candlestick pattern called the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern with its meaning, formation, indication, and how to

Marketing 124

Marketing Marketing Banking Numbers 124

Abnormal Returns

MAY 5, 2024

Top clicks this week Widen your investing lens. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why the stock market usually goes up. (humbledollar.com) The best investors are running their own race. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) How stocks, bonds and cash have performed over the past 30 years. (awealthofcommonsense.com) How major asset classes performed in April 2024.

Assets 261

Assets Investing Investments Marketing 261

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 19, 2024

Four charts about the economy you might find surprising: 1. Wages are cumulative too. The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages. Here’s the chart: And the explanation: For households in every quintile (or fifth) of the income distribution, the share of inc.

Economics 137

Economics Budgeting Distribution Economy 137

Alpha Architect

MAY 17, 2024

The finding that the recommendations from SA articles resulted in statistically significant risk-adjusted alphas (returns unexplained by conventional academic models using factors such as the market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and quality for equity portfolios) is surprising given that the empirical evidence shows how difficult it is for institutional investors such as mutual funds to show outperformance beyond the randomly expected (as can be seen in the annual SPIVA Scorecards) beca

Media 129

Media Portfolio Marketing Marketing 129

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 17, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. economy.

Economics 127

Economics Economy 127

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2024

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.5% year-over-year in April, down from 5.6% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.6% YoY in April , down from 5.8% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Banking

Carson Wealth

MAY 23, 2024

One of the most important decisions you’ll make when designing your estate plan is who to name in the various fiduciary roles: trustee, personal representative, executor and agent. While a critical decision, it’s often given significantly less thought than the distribution of your assets. But even a meticulously designed estate plan drafted by an accomplished estate planning attorney can fail to achieve its purpose if the trustee fails to administer the trust properly.

Estate Planning 119

Estate Planning Planning Distribution Valuation 119

Abnormal Returns

MAY 1, 2024

April 2024 The S&P 500 lost 4.08% in April 2024. (on.spdji.com) How major asset classes performed in April 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Hedge funds are overexposed to momentum. (ft.com) Strategy Catalysts matter. Good luck identifying them. (behaviouralinvestment.com) How to think about debt. (collabfund.com) Markets have to clear. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Companies Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) owners can thank Todd Combs and Ted Weschler for the Apple ($AAPL) investment.

Marketing 256

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 256

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 10, 2024

I saw the following headline earlier this week: I didn’t even need to read the actual article to know what the message would be. The tell here was the term ‘veteran forecaster’ In finance-speak, veteran forecaster can be translated to mean someone who is supremely confident in their predictions but almost always wrong. It has to be this way because forecasters are so unreliable.

Media 136

Media Wealth Management Management 136

Alpha Architect

MAY 10, 2024

To date, the best metric we have for forecasting future equity returns and the ERP is current valuations. An interesting question is whether more complicated methods using newly developed machine learning models can provide superior forecasts. Using Machine Language Programs to Forecast the Equity Risk Premium was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Valuation 125

Valuation Investing Investments 125

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 30, 2024

The U.S. economy grew at a slower than expected pace to start off the year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in Q1 2024, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is lower than the forecasted 1.6% growth and is a slowdown from the Q4 2023 GDP final estimate of 3.4%.

Economy 119

Economy 119

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. The employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. Construction employment increased 9 thousand and is now 604 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 181 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Wealth Management

MAY 21, 2024

The acquisitions of Wealth Management Solutions and Autumn Wind Asset Management represent Modern Wealth’s seventh and eighth transactions and bring its assets to over $3.7 billion.

Wealth Management 120

Wealth Management Assets Management 120

Investment Writing

MAY 21, 2024

Many investment and financial advisors have older clients who struggle with decluttering as they prepare to downsize. I picked up some useful ideas from a session presented by Matt Paxton, the host of the PBS program Legacy List and the author of a book that had the same title as his presentation, Keep the Memories, Lose the Stuff: Declutter, Downsize, and Move Forward with Your Life.

Clients 111

Clients Commission Financial Advisor Sales 111

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 7, 2024

One of my favorite pop culture developments in recent years is the famous person press tour. If you write a new book or have a new movie or TV show coming out, you have to talk to every outlet imaginable to sell your project. There is so much content and so much competition for our attention these days that even uber-successful people are forced to make the hard sell.

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Alpha Architect

MAY 13, 2024

Higher volatility is associated with faster, initially stronger reversals, while lower turnover is associated with more persistent, ultimately stronger reversals How Volatility and Turnover Affect Return Reversals was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 113

Investing Investments 113

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 3, 2024

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 19th, the index was at 17.434, down 4.427 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

Economics 118

Economics Economy 118