May, 2024

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What Stagflation?

The Big Picture

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Three assets that don't diversify your portfolio as well as you think. (morningstar.com) The problematic math of passing down generational wealth. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) International diversification requires a long time horizon. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The S&P 500 is now nearly 40% of global market cap. (apolloacademy.com) Don't confuse selling calls with income.

Math 283
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Diversification is About Decades

A Wealth of Common Sense

A lot of investors have abandoned international diversification (or at least strongly considered it) in recent years. I understand why this is happening. The U.S. stock market has destroyed all comers ever since the Great Financial Crisis ended. Since 2009, a total U.S. stock market index fund is up more than 660% while a total international index fund is up more like 180%.

Marketing 138
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Chicago PMI Drops to 4-Year Low

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 35.4 in May from 37.9 in April. This is the sixth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since May 2020. The latest reading is worse than the 41.1 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a sixth consecutive month.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 24, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Sales 131

More Trending

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US Equities: 9% Forever?

The Big Picture

It’s taken me months to organize all of my research for my next book project; it’s a lot of stuff, some dating back to 2000. Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. A lot of it has not aged well. But every now and then, something I saved turned out to be prescient — not because it was lucky, but because it contained a well-considered insight that has stood the test of time.

Numbers 287
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Saturday links: academic courage

Abnormal Returns

EVs What is going to become of Tesla's ($TSLA) charging network? (washingtonpost.com) Do EVs need artificial noises? (axios.com) Autos Automatic braking will soon be a standard, required feature on cars. (theverge.com) Do you really want a GM ($GM) car without Apple CarPlay? (bloomberg.com) What goes into a VIN? (theconversation.com) Energy Why Plant Vogle could be the last large scale nuclear power plants built in the U.S.

Medicine 285
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Anthony Stich Joins MarketCounsel

Wealth Management

Stich, who left digital custodian Entrustody in January, joins MarketCounsel this week as executive managing director and will take over a lot of the operational responsibilities from President and CEO Brian Hamburger.

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The Unsurprising Failure of the Largest Hedge Fund in the World

Advisor Perspectives

Few practices in the business world are as absurd, senseless, irrational, and cynical as the allocation of investments of large public pension funds and endowments. And few fail so often and so predictably to achieve their true objectives.

Investing 136
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in April; Down 14.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 198.4, a decline of 14.0% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index magnified the results for the month, resulting in a 2.3% month-over-month decrease.

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Gambler’s Fallacy in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.

Marketing 127
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Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern – Trading Strategies And More

Trade Brains

Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern: Technical analysts rely heavily on chart and candlestick patterns to conduct comprehensive analyses of stock prices and accurately predict their future movements. Each pattern formed in the market has a clear and justified reason behind its formation and indicates the market’s direction. Here in this article, we shall discuss a two-candlestick pattern called the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern with its meaning, formation, indication, and how to

Marketing 124
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Widen your investing lens. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why the stock market usually goes up. (humbledollar.com) The best investors are running their own race. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) How stocks, bonds and cash have performed over the past 30 years. (awealthofcommonsense.com) How major asset classes performed in April 2024.

Assets 282
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Live From Wealth Management EDGE: SMAs, Inflation and the Fed

Wealth Management

Speakers at Wealth Management EDGE at The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla., discuss how investing strategies, including SMAs and how inflation and the Fed are impacting investing.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Softer Economic Conditions Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. economy.

Economics 127
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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 5.6% YoY in April

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.5% year-over-year in April, down from 5.6% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.6% YoY in April , down from 5.8% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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4 Economic Charts That Might Surprise You

A Wealth of Common Sense

Four charts about the economy you might find surprising: 1. Wages are cumulative too. The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages. Here’s the chart: And the explanation: For households in every quintile (or fifth) of the income distribution, the share of inc.

Economics 125
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Social Media: The Value of Seeking Alpha’s Recommendations

Alpha Architect

The finding that the recommendations from SA articles resulted in statistically significant risk-adjusted alphas (returns unexplained by conventional academic models using factors such as the market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and quality for equity portfolios) is surprising given that the empirical evidence shows how difficult it is for institutional investors such as mutual funds to show outperformance beyond the randomly expected (as can be seen in the annual SPIVA Scorecards) beca

Media 117
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Personal finance links: prioritizing your future

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Carl Richards about the behavior gap and how to avoid it. (ritholtz.com) Shane Parrish talks with Morgan Housel author of "Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes." (youtube.com) Amy Arnott and Christine Benz talk with Jamila Souffrant author of "Your Journey to Financial Freedom: A Step-by-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness.

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Report: Half of Advisors to Recommend Crypto in the Next 12 Months

Wealth Management

The introduction of bitcoin ETFs is fueling increased advisor engagement with digital assets, according to a Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals survey.

Assets 127
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Q1 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at 1.3%, Below Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew at a slower than expected pace to start off the year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in Q1 2024, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is lower than the forecasted 1.6% growth and is a slowdown from the Q4 2023 GDP final estimate of 3.4%.

Economy 119
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000 , an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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Seinfeld on When Money Became Everything

A Wealth of Common Sense

One of my favorite pop culture developments in recent years is the famous person press tour. If you write a new book or have a new movie or TV show coming out, you have to talk to every outlet imaginable to sell your project. There is so much content and so much competition for our attention these days that even uber-successful people are forced to make the hard sell.

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Choosing the Right Trustee for Your Estate Plan

Carson Wealth

One of the most important decisions you’ll make when designing your estate plan is who to name in the various fiduciary roles: trustee, personal representative, executor and agent. While a critical decision, it’s often given significantly less thought than the distribution of your assets. But even a meticulously designed estate plan drafted by an accomplished estate planning attorney can fail to achieve its purpose if the trustee fails to administer the trust properly.

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Momentum Everywhere, Even Cross-Country Factor Momentum

Alpha Architect

There is strong empirical evidence demonstrating that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Momentum Everywhere, Even Cross-Country Factor Momentum was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 113
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Wealth Management EDGE: RIAs Need Organic Growth, Diverse Clientele To Compete In 'Unprecedented' Sellers’ Market

Wealth Management

Numerous speakers at Wealth Management EDGE said buyers would want to see that its AUM wasn’t primarily tied to a small number of clients and that its growth wasn’t spurred mainly by the market.

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Does the U.S. Have Too Much Debt?

Advisor Perspectives

Relative to 18 developed economies since 1870, U.S. leverage is high though not unprecedented. However, unless the recent rise in interest rates reverses, the U.S. will need to cut its debt load.

Economy 116
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FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased in Q1 2024

Calculated Risk

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 2024: Reports from 4,568 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) report aggregate net income of $64.2 billion in first quarter 2024, an increase of $28.4 billion (79.5 percent) from the prior quarter. A large decline in noninterest expense because of several substantial, non-recurring items recognized by large banks in the prior quarter, as well as higher noninterest income and lo

Numbers 124