Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

economy is performing. economy, its performance has been very good." Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024: "It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. We're performing better than all of our global peers. Ultimately, if you look at the U.S. percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5.

Retail 260

Retail Economy Sales 260

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes and their likely effects on the economy. It is not our role to comment on those policies.

Economics 257

Economics Economy 257

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 8.12

Numbers 269

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 269

Calculated Risk

JUNE 15, 2025

An earlier cut is possible if the economy deteriorates more than we expect or if inflation continues to surprise to the downside, but we think that the peak summer tariff effects on the monthly inflation prints will most likely be too fresh for the FOMC to cut before December. Dec 2024 1.8

Banking 286

Banking Economics Economy Marketing 286

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and mortgage rate volatility, the mixed signals around the current state of the U.S.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

This is how models depict the economy. This is how the economy actually behaves. I think about that calm pond this time of year when the annual Wall Street forecasts for markets and the economy get released. The result will be very predictable: concentric rings will expand out from where the mass disrupts the calm surface.

Economy 200

Economy Retail Portfolio Assets 200

Calculated Risk

JUNE 3, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.20

Numbers 251

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 251

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

Those policies are still evolving, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain. Monetary Policy As we gain a better understanding of the policy changes, we will have a better sense of the implications for the economy, and hence for monetary policy. As we learn more, we will continue to update our assessment.

Economy 222

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 222

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 28, 2024

allfields.substack.com) Economy On the flip side of the national debt debate. economy at this point? (marginalrevolution.com) Why NFL players have not embraced the Guardian Cap. wired.com) There is no solving the physicality inherent in football. optimisticallie.com) What more would you want from the U.S.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Economy Media Assets 276

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.76

Numbers 229

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 229

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.

Sales 214

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 214

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

. • In particular, it examines the potential channels through which stress in crypto­-asset markets could be transmitted to the traditional financial system and ultimately disrupt the real economy. • wizards figures out a new way to turn lead into gold, and to become wealthy while damaging the financial system.

Assets 189

Assets Economy Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

Excerpt: The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 12, 2025

While levels remain elevated enough to cause some inflation concern (remember: bad for rates), they've come down enough to alleviate some concern about the global economy (also bad for rates). [ Over the weekend, the US and China agreed on a 90 day pause on the more extreme tariff brinksmanship.

Economy 268

Economy Marketing Marketing 268

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2025

Note: Yesterday, I expressed concern about policy impacting housing and the economy. These Current State summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going! Then, at 12:57 PM ET, Goldman Sachs economists put out a note titled: Moving to a Recession Baseline.

Marketing 247

Marketing Marketing Economy Sales 247

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].

Government 310

Government Economy Investments Investing 310

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy. Energy activity in the oil and gas sector was flat but demand for electricity generation continued to grow at a robust rate.

Economics 278

Economics Economy Sales Planning 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.48

Numbers 194

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 194

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S. has halted efforts to clean up Agent Orange in Vietnam. bonddad.blogspot.com) National home builder confidence fell in March. econbrowser.com) People really want to work from home.

Media 195

Media Economy Retail Banking 195

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky.

Government 246

Government Advertising Economy Engineering 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

Calculated Risk

APRIL 9, 2025

At this moment, we cant talk housing without mentioning the overall economy. economy is very resilient, was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and the tariffs might be lowered or reversed). Just over two weeks ago, I revised down my outlook for housing this year, see Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook.

Marketing 216

Marketing Marketing Economy Sales 216

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

percent year-over-year, according to the October ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “As

Economy 173

Economy 173

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.51

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 21, 2025

economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s. One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S.

Economy 133

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 133

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Food Communication 162

Abnormal Returns

JULY 11, 2025

thewrap.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks the attention economy with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: The biz The New York Times ($NYT) wants to turn its writers into video stars. vulture.com) The scam that is using an appearance on a big name podcast as bait. How Money & Markets Really Work."

Recruitment 162

Recruitment Economy Engineering Consulting 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

Participants observed, however, that the ultimate extent of changes to government policy and their effects on the economy was highly uncertain. Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken. emphasis added

Economics 207

Economics Government Risk Management Economy 207

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 27, 2025

theblock.co) Economy Personal income and spending declined in May 2025. fooddive.com) Costco ($COST) is embracing the two-tier economy. (politico.com) MARA Holdings ($MARA) is following a “full HODL strategy.” sherwood.news) Are stablecoins the new money market funds? bonddad.blogspot.com) Why the Fed feels comfortable being on hold.

Math 147

Math Startup Food Economy 147

The Big Picture

JUNE 25, 2025

(Full transcript coming tomorrow). ~~~ About this week’s guest: Sam Ro is a veteran financial journalist and CFA known for his clear, data-driven insights into markets and and the economy. We discuss how to manage your way through war, tariffs and all manner of headline risks.

Economy 195

Economy Management Marketing Marketing 195

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? (msn.com) More Americans live in health care deserts as small hospitals close. advisorperspectives.com) In many states a rape exception is no help at all. npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S. is booming.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 293

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.

Sales 309

Sales Economy Investments Investing 309

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 30, 2024

frontofficesports.com) Economy 2024 Q3 GDP ran at a 2.8% (johnwallstreet.com) A closer look at rising NBA valuations. huddleup.substack.com) An existential threat to pro sports: kids don't watch live sports. growth rate. bonddad.blogspot.com) Why mortgage rates are going up, not down.

Financial Advising 269

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 269

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2025

If that were to occur, participants agreed that they would consider how far the economy is from each goal and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close. Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level.

Economics 165

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 165

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. And second, should we ignore changes that have taken place over that 15-year period?

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investments Investing 347

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: (hollywoodreporter.com) Spotify ($SPOT) will start publishing independent audiobooks. techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free. How Money & Markets Really Work."

Budgeting 147

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might place some checks on the executive branch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 165

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 165