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Grinch: Ignore Black Friday Retail Forecasts

The Big Picture

It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% The post Grinch: Ignore Black Friday Retail Forecasts appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Factoring in Inflation, Retail Sales Remain Very Weak in September

Mish Talk

Retail sales data from Commerce Department, CPI adjustment by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for September. Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent from September 2021 Nonstore retailers were up 11.6

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No Growth in Retail Spending, Missing Expectations, Negative Revisions

Mish Talk

Advance retail sales from BLS, chart by Mish. The Census Bureau reports Retail Sales Were Unchanged in July. retail and food services sales for July 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes , were $682.8

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Retail Sales: With Food and Shelter Soaring, Who Can Afford Anything Else?

Mish Talk

Retail sales from commerce department, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for November. Retail trade sales were down 0.8 Retail sales took a seasonally-adjusted 0.6

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Retail Sales Unchanged in September

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0

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Factoring in Revisions and Inflation, Retail Sales Remain Very Weak

Mish Talk

Retail sales data and inflation adjusted retail sales, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for August. Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent from August 2021, while nonstore retailers were up 11.2

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Germany Retail Sales Unexpectedly Collapse the Most in Three Decades

Mish Talk

Reuters reports German Retail Sales Post Biggest Year-On-Year Slump Since 1994. Retail sales in June decreased 8.8% Retail sales also unexpectedly fell compared with the month before: June retail sales fell 1.6% Image from Tweet below.

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Retail investors are buying, institutions are selling

The Reformed Broker

The post Retail investors are buying, institutions are selling appeared first on The Reformed Broker. Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts?

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GDPNow Forecast Unfazed by Weak Retail Sales and Strong Inflation

Mish Talk

Percent Annualized Despite Weak Economic Data Today, despite weak retail sales data, especially inflation-adjusted, the model held firm. percent despite very weak retail sales. Factoring in Inflation, Retail Sales Remain Very Weak in September. In July, real retail sales fell 0.4

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Retail Sales Decreased 1.1% in December

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 1.1% retail and food services sales for December 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.1 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

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Retail Sales Look Strong But Fail to Keep Up With Soaring Inflation

Mish Talk

Nominal retail sales from commerce department, real (inflation-adjusted) sales by Mish. The Census Department reports Advance Retail Sales rose 1.0 Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. Retail trade sales were up 1.0 Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Detail.

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China's GDP Beats Expectations But Retail Sales Are Weak Again

Mish Talk

Beat the Street Retail Sales Weak Retail sales were up 3.5% For the first nine months of the year retail sales were up a very low 0.7% Consumption Gap Widens This meant that the gap between industrial output and consumption (for which retail sales are a proxy) continued to widen in the third quarter, albeit at a slower pace. Factoring in Inflation, Retail Sales Remain Very Weak in September. Both the US and China have weak retail sales.

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Consumers Step Up Purchases With a Splurge of Retail Sales Spending

Mish Talk

Advance Retail Sales from Census Department, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for October. Retail trade sales were up 1.2 Real vs Nominal Retail Sales.

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Cetera To Buy Securian Financial's Retail Wealth Business

Wealth Management

Securian’s retail wealth business, including some $72.2 billion is assets across more than 30 independent firms and 1,000 financial professionals, will become a “distinct community” within Cetera Advisor Networks

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Solid Holiday Retail Sales Forecasts

Calculated Risk

Here are two holiday retail sales forecasts. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% Here is a graph from the NRF showing the year-over-year change in retail sales in November and December (ex-automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants).

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Despite Seemingly Strong Retail Sales, GDPNow Forecast Dips to Negative 1.5 Percent

Mish Talk

The GDPNow forecast fell today because based on previous data, the model expected better CPI data or better retail sales data than what happened. Retail Sales Look Strong But Fail to Keep Up With Soaring Inflation. Retail sales rose 1.0 Effectively June retail sales were 0.3

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Retail Sales "Unchanged" in July

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 10.3 retail and food services sales for July 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $682.8

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How COVID-19 Changed Retailers’ Site Selection Strategies

Wealth Management

Retail stores that have traditionally only been seen in malls are now moving out and finding new opportunities to establish standalone storefronts, and vice versa

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Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales

Calculated Risk

Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales. At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales. Here is a graph of retail hiring for previous years based on the BLS employment report: Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

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Net Lease Retail Valuations Finally Cracking Under Interest Rate Pressure

Wealth Management

Demand for net lease retail is softening, which is forcing a pricing reset—albeit more slowly than buyers would like

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Retail Sales Increase 0.3% in August

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.3% retail and food services sales for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $683.3 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

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Retail Sales Increased 1.3% in October

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.3% retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

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Net Lease REITs and Private Aggregators Increase Retail Acquisitions Targets

Wealth Management

Net lease retail REITs, aggregators and cash buyers are anticipating an extremely active acquisitions environment for the remainder of the year as terms become more attractive

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Core retail sales up solidly, but housing market slows further

Nationwide Financial

Retail sales growth was flat due in large part to falling gasoline and car prices; the retail sales control group suggests that consumers are not yet pulling back on spending. Last week’s economic data were mixed.

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Retail Sales Mostly Unchanged in July

Advisor Perspectives

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for July was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.03% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.41% MoM

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Retail Sales Decreased 0.6% in November

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

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Retailers’ Inflation-Fighting Discounts Yield Modest Growth on Black Friday

Wealth Management

percent at brick-and-mortar retailers versus 2021, according to preliminary data compiled by Sensormatic Solutions. In-store traffic ticked up 2.9 Salesforce Inc.

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Retail Sales Unchanged in September

Advisor Perspectives

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September was released this morning. Headline sales came in unchanged month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.09

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Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM

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A retail conundrum: strong spending defies weak earnings

Nationwide Financial

With inflation remaining persistent, Q3 earnings reports from retailers suggest that the slowing macroeconomic environment is draining the power of the U.S. However, the slowdown is not affecting all retailers, at least not yet. At the same time, October retail sales surged 1.3%

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Retail Sales Up 1.3% in October

Advisor Perspectives

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 1.3% month-over-month and was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.0%. Core sales (ex Autos) also came in at 1.3%

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Holiday Shopping Looks Anything But Festive for Retail Stocks

Wealth Management

Similar skepticism was seen in May when a slew of retailers cut their annual profit forecasts Trading volume in bearish put options for the consumer discretionary sector spiked recently.

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Is the Retail Reckoning for Regional Malls at an End?

Wealth Management

After a turbulent decade, the U.S. mall industry seems to have come out of the pandemic in decently good health

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Weak US Retail Sales, Factory Data Heighten Recession Concerns

Advisor Perspectives

US retail sales fell by the most in a year and business equipment production slumped, raising concerns that the economy is losing momentum under the weight of tighter Federal Reserve policy

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The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Continue to Decline

Advisor Perspectives

Real retail sales , calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY.

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Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production

Calculated Risk

Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for November will be released. decrease in retail sales. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. The consensus is for a 0.2%

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New York officials meet to award cannabis retail licenses

MarketWatch

The New York Office of Cannabis Management's Cannabis Control Board is considering whether to approve 36 conditional adult-use retail dispensary (CAURD) licenses in the state at Monday's public hearing under way on Monday.

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Wednesday: Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes

Calculated Risk

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. •

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The Pandemic Was Good for Retailers. What Happens Next?

Advisor Perspectives

After a respite in 2021 and 2022, US retailers appear headed for a flurry of bankruptcies, with Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. leading the way

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Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey

Calculated Risk

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October will be released. increase in retail sales. • Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

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