Thu.Mar 28, 2024

article thumbnail

Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

article thumbnail

Longform links: enduring communication

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America" by Abrahm Lustgarten. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Jonathan Haidt author of "The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness." (davidepstein.substack.com) An excerpt from "Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout" by Cal Newport.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.6% in February; Down 7.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose 1.6% in February Pending home sales in January grew 1.6% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February.

Sales 105
article thumbnail

RIA Edge Podcast: Brent Brodeski on the Strategy Behind Savant's Rapid Growth

Wealth Management

Savant CEO and founder Brent Brodeski shares his playbook of success through M&A as a means to fill service gaps and expand his service model across 15 states, with national ambitions.

100
100
article thumbnail

Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

article thumbnail

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: Note: Most analysts were surprised by the increase in sales in February. Not housing economist Tom Lawler, or any readers of this newsletter. The local data clearly showed that sales - as reported by the NAR - would be up solidly in February.

Marketing 104

More Trending

article thumbnail

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average.

82
article thumbnail

The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: Closing the Gap Between HNW Client Expectations and Advisor Services

Wealth Management

John Bowen describes the research from his team at CEG Worldwide regarding what high-net-worth clients want most from their advisors.

Clients 83
article thumbnail

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since July 2021

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since July 2021 this month according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 2.5 points (3.3%) to 79.4 from the February final. The latest reading was below the forecast of 76.5.

69
article thumbnail

Kestra Scores $600M NYC Firm

Wealth Management

Borger Financial Services made the move from Hornor, Townsend & Kent for more flexibility and access to alternatives through an iCapital partnership.

article thumbnail

2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

article thumbnail

Pending Home Sales Rise More Than Expected in February

Advisor Perspectives

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index rose 1.6% in February to 75.6, exceeding the forecasted 1.4% growth. Pending home sales are down 7.0% from one year ago.

Sales 64
article thumbnail

Former State Street, JPMorgan Execs Open Shop on Mariner Platform

Wealth Management

Boston-based KinneyMunro Wealth Advisors seeks to deliver "a differentiated investing experience.

article thumbnail

Unemployment Claims Down 2K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending March 23, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 210,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 212,000 jobless claims.

64
article thumbnail

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 25.5% YoY; New Listings up 14.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.5% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

Sales 62
article thumbnail

Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

article thumbnail

Q4 GDP Final Estimate: Real GDP at 3.4%, Above Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in Q4 2023, according to the final estimate. The latest estimate is higher than the forecasted 3.2% growth and is a slowdown from the Q3 2023 GDP final estimate of 4.9%.

64
article thumbnail

Q4 GDP Growth Revised Up to 3.4% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

article thumbnail

Chicago PMI Falls to 10-Month Low

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 41.4 in March from 44.0 in February. This is the fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index in ten months. The latest reading is worse than the 45.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a fourth consecutive month.

article thumbnail

Innovative Philanthropy: Beyond Traditional Grantmaking

Wealth Management

The limitations of traditional grantmaking are becoming increasingly clear.

96
article thumbnail

Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

article thumbnail

Moving Averages: S&P Finishes March Up 3.1%

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on April 30, 2024 The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.10%, after a gain of 5.17% in February. After close on the last day of the month, zero of five Ivy portfolio ETFs are signaling "cash", down from last month's final single "cash" signal.

59
article thumbnail

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Prices, Fed Chair Powell

Calculated Risk

All US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.

57
article thumbnail

S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Finishes Strong First Quarter Up 10.2%

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 closed out the first quarter of 2024 with another record close and finished Q1 up 10.2%. The index is currently up 10.79% year to date and has set a new record closing high 22 times so far this year.

59
article thumbnail

Will Tech VC Funds Become the New Frontier for Private Wealth?

Wealth Management

Investing in venture capital funds targeting tech start-ups carries high risks and requires a tolerance for decades of illiquidity. But all it takes is one outperforming company to make it worth it.

article thumbnail

Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

article thumbnail

Q4 Final Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP

Advisor Perspectives

The final estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 3.40%, a deceleration from 4.86% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.79%, a decrease from 4.24% for the Q3 headline number.

Numbers 59
article thumbnail

What About 60/30/10 Instead of 60/40?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben always shares the long-run returns for stocks, bonds and cash. It’s essentially 10%, 5% and 3%. I know past is not predictive, blah, blah, blah but am well aware that cash has the lowest prospective returns of the main asset classes. Knowing this full well, I still want to keep 10% of my portfolio in cash in retirement so I can sleep at night.

article thumbnail

Amazon Bets $150 Billion on Data Centers Required for AI Boom

Advisor Perspectives

Amazon.com Inc. plans to spend almost $150 billion in the coming 15 years on data centers, giving the cloud-computing giant the firepower to handle an expected explosion in demand for artificial intelligence applications and other digital services.

article thumbnail

Private Aircraft Considerations

Carson Wealth

Welcome to this week’s edition of Wisdom and Wealth! You can check out the podcast and YouTube video for this edition below! Thank you for reading, listening, and watching! Our focus is primarily on private wealth management and financial planning, however, we also from time to time invite guests to the show who are niche experts that can add value.

article thumbnail

The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

article thumbnail

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Further in March

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined further in March while future expectations were steady. The composite index came in at -7, down from -4 in February, while the future outlook inched down to 1.

article thumbnail

6 Signs It’s Time to Ditch DIY Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

Retirement planning is a journey that generally takes decades to complete and most of us start out along the do-it-yourself path. More than likely, your first step was to enroll in an employer-provided plan such as a 401(k) or setting up an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA. But at some point, most of us need to graduate from the DIY approach and seek advice from a retirement planning professional.

article thumbnail

The Commodity Outlook for 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Commodities have played a pivotal role in financial markets since 2020. Pipelines have been blown up, shipping routes have been disrupted, droughts lowered electricity output, Panama Canal traffic increased, and agricultural prices rose to name just a few recent incidents. Yet commodities also remain an asset class that is not well understood. Today, we will dive into the state of the commodity market, and how opportunities and pitfalls in 2024 may affect your portfolio.