Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.2 retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 194

Retail Sales Food 194

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Excerpt: Sales in December (4.24 above the December 2023 sales rate. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales 232

Sales 232

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings fell 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS. regions, with the South seeing the greatest falloff.

Sales 251

Sales Marketing Marketing 251

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2024

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 264

Sales 264

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for October will be released. increase in retail sales. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. The consensus is for a 0.3% Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5,

Retail 260

Retail Sales Manufacturing 260

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 221

Sales 221

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 4.6%.

Sales 200

Sales 200

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

In this guest post, Taylor Schulte, founder of Define Financial, an independent RIA based in San Diego, CA, shares his approach to overcoming these challenges by selecting a client niche and implementing a 3-step sales process. This approach can lead to higher conversion rates while driving substantial revenue growth and profitability.

Financial Planning 235

Financial Planning Sales Planning Retirement 235

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

All day, Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 16.8 The WardsAuto estimate is for sales of 17.4 The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending. million SAAR in April, down from 17.8 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). million SAAR in April.

Sales 226

Sales Manufacturing 226

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales in January 2025 were down 1.1% Sales in January 2025 were down 1.1%

Sales 214

Sales 214

Calculated Risk

APRIL 23, 2025

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 165

Sales 165

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3 Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3

Sales 213

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 213

Calculated Risk

APRIL 22, 2025

At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Sales 261

Sales Banking Economics 261

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 YoY Excerpt: Sales in March (4.02 below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline, following four consecutive months with a year-over-year increases in sales.

Sales 179

Sales 179

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2025

year-over-year The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 31.1% There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, crossing this threshold for the first time since December 2019. higher than this time last year. This represents the 78th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory.

Sales 179

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 179

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $723.9 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Food 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to October 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales.

Sales 248

Sales Marketing Marketing 248

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March Pending home sales increased 6.1% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings augmented 6.1% Year-over-year, pending transactions lessened by 0.6%. The Northeast PHSI dropped 0.5% from last month to 62.5,

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.98 Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data. The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.02 million SAAR.

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 Sales in February (4.26 million in February.

Sales 165

Sales 165

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 YoY Excerpt: Sales in February (4.26 below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the streak of fourth consecutive year-over-year increases in sales. Sales decreased 1.2% million SAAR in February; Down 1.2%

Sales 179

Sales 179

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April: Tariff-Induced Buying Pumps U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales for Second Month in April (pay site). Tariff-related buying lifted sales over the past two months to a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 17.6 Sales in April (17.27 million SAAR) were down 2.8%

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red).

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2024

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October • Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts • California Home Sales Up 9.5% At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. •

Sales 278

Sales Marketing Marketing 278

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report , I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.

Sales 162

Sales Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Food 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2025

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Wednesday: At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Economics Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for December (red). Sales in December (16.80 Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 182

Sales Retail Government 182

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 7.4% in September ending home sales rose in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Year-over-year, the Northeast and West registered increases while sales remained steady in the Midwest and South. in September, the highest level since March (78.3).

Sales 173

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 173

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 10.1%.

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content). Regardless, sales are tracking to their fourth straight increase in January. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for January (Red). From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 162

Sales 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report , I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. Sales at 4.02

Sales 165

Sales Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $729.2 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Food 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 2, 2025

All day, Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.6 The consensus is for an increase in sales to 15.9 At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). million SAAR.

Sales 162

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2024

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.

Sales 316

Sales 316