Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Light-Vehicle Sales to Weaken Again in December; Inventory Set to Rise (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for December (Red). million SAAR, would be down 8% from last month, but up 2% from a year ago (sales weakened in the second half of 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Sales 139

Sales Marketing Marketing 139

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

New Home Sales data from the Census Department, chart by Mish. Last month I noted huge new sales negative revisions for the August. New Home Sales Sales of new single? New Home Sales Sales of new single?family In September I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August to 685,000.

Sales 165

Sales Economics Numbers 165

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

The August release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000 units, below the forecast of 700,000. New home sales were down 8.7% month-over-month from a revised rate of 739,000 in July but up 5.8% from one year ago.

Sales 69

Sales 69

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales, Inventory Continue Upward Climb in February (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red). Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, far behind housing. From WardsAuto: U.S. from a year ago.

Sales 140

Sales Marketing Marketing 140

Calculated Risk

JUNE 27, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 763 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963.

Sales 145

Sales 145

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 14, 2022

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 145

Retail Sales Food 145

Calculated Risk

JUNE 22, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales Pegged for 21% Gain; Q2 to Roll in at 2-Year-High 15.7 This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for June (Red). Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. From WardsAuto: June U.S.

Sales 143

Sales Marketing Marketing 143

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Tumbled 7.1% in August Pending home sales slid 7.1% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – sank 7.1% in August , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. The West index retreated 7.7%

Sales 80

Sales Budgeting 80

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.5 retail and food services sales for August 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.6 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 64

Retail Sales Food 64

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for May this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red). However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. from May 2022.

Sales 144

Sales Marketing Marketing 144

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales decrease to 675,000 Annual Rate in August Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 675 thousand. Sales in August 2023 were up 5.8% Sales in August 2023 were up 5.8%

Sales 109

Sales 109

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Existing home sales continued their downward trend in August as prices remained elevated. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell by 0.7% Existing home sales are down 15.3% from July to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million units.

Sales 64

Sales 64

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 15, 2023

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales were up 0.3% Core sales (ex Autos) were up 0.1% month-over-month, above the expected 0.1% in May, in-line with expectations.

Retail 105

Retail Sales 105

Calculated Risk

APRIL 25, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 683 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 145

Sales 145

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through April 2023. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time. Currently about 80% of light vehicle sales are light trucks or SUVs.

Sales 75

Sales Economics 75

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales to Post Strong Growth; Inventory to Fall from March (pay content). million units, sales volume is forecast to rise a robust 13% year-over-year in Q2. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for April (Red). From WardsAuto: April U.S. The Wards forecast of 15.5 from a year ago.

Sales 98

Sales Marketing Marketing 98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 23, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 714 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 97

Sales 97

Calculated Risk

MAY 23, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 683 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 124

Sales 124

Calculated Risk

MAY 16, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.4% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.6 retail and food services sales for April 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.1 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 98

Retail Sales Food 98

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 670 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 140

Sales 140

Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 1.0% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.9 retail and food services sales for March 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $691.7 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 98

Retail Sales Food 98

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 0.7% in August Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

Sales 67

Sales 67

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 14, 2023

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth.

Retail 64

Retail Sales 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 YoY in August Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023. Sales declined 15.3% million SAAR in August; Median Prices Increased 3.9%

Sales 94

Sales 94

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% year-over-year increase in the National index for July. Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for July.

Sales 60

Sales Manufacturing 60

Calculated Risk

MARCH 23, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales, Inventory Pegged for Solid Gains; First-Quarter Deliveries to Rise 7% (pay content). Brief excerpt: Though gradually improving, inventory remains the story behind why sales remain low by historical standards. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for March (Red).

Sales 95

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 95

Calculated Risk

MARCH 21, 2023

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Surged 14.5% in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines Existing-home sales reversed a 12-month slide in February, registering the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Month-over-month sales rose in all four major U.S.

Sales 141

Sales 141

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for September this morning. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the September 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 139

Sales 139

Calculated Risk

JUNE 15, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.3% from April to May (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.6 retail and food services sales for May 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.6 This graph shows retail sales since 1992. billion, up 0.3

Retail 80

Retail Sales Food 80

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red). Sales in October were above the consensus forecast of 14.3

Sales 143

Sales 143

Calculated Risk

JUNE 29, 2023

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Shrunk 2.7% in May Pending home sales shrunk 2.7% regions posted monthly losses, while sales in the Northeast surged. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dropped 2.7% The West index lessened 6.1% in May to 58.4,

Sales 125

Sales Marketing Marketing 125

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for June yesterday. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 98

Sales 98

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for August will be released. increase in retail sales. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 212 thousand initial claims, down from 216 thousand last week. The consensus is for a 0.1% The consensus is for a 0.4%

Retail 56

Retail Sales 56

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 697 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 93

Sales 93

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December. The BEA estimates sales of 13.31 from the November sales rate, and up 4.7% The first graph shows annual sales since 1976. Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Sales were decent in December.

Sales 95

Sales Economy 95

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 3.0% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.4 retail and food services sales for January 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.0 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 98

Retail Sales Food 98

MarketWatch

APRIL 3, 2023

GM said Monday it sold 603,208 vehicles in the first quarter, up 18% year-on-year, including a jump of 27% for fleet sales. The auto maker said it saw sales growth across all brands and it also grew its market share. “GM GM stopped reporting monthly sales in 2018, taking a page from electric-vehicle maker Tesla Inc.

Sales 98

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 98