Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 14, 2023

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% and up 2.47% year-over-year. MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.

Retail 59

Retail Sales Economics 59

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 17, 2023

Retail sales dropped in March for the fourth time in the past five months. April 20: Existing home sales Existing home sales tied to mortgage rate movements Mortgage rates, which shot up in late February and early March, had fallen back to around 6.3 percent annualized pace, but economic activity is clearly downshifting.

Economics 98

Economics Retail Economy Sales 98

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 22, 2023

Retail sales decline in wake of January’s spending spree January’s explosion in retail sales appears to be an outlier, but the level of sales is still high. March 21 & 23: Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales Existing home sales rise while new home sales dip Pending home sales, which spiked 8.1

Economics 98

Economics Banking Sales Retail 98

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through April 2023. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time. Currently about 80% of light vehicle sales are light trucks or SUVs.

Sales 78

Sales Economics 78

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Real estate conditions were little changed and the inventory of homes for sale remained low. Expectations of firms for which the holiday shopping season is an important driver of sales were mixed.

Economics 62

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 62

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty.

Economics 102

Economics eCommerce Manufacturing Sales 102

Advisor Perspectives

AUGUST 16, 2023

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in July were up 0.7% However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.6% and up 3.17% year-over-year. MoM and down 0.12% year-over-year.

Retail 52

Retail Sales Economics 52

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2023

The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through April 2023. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time. The second graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs.

Sales 80

Sales Economics 80

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 19, 2023

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in June were up 0.19% and up 1.49% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were practically unchanged, increasing 0.01% and were down 1.55% year-over-year.

Retail 52

Retail Sales Economics 52

MarketWatch

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

stock indexes opened lower on Wednesday after January retail sales number came in higher than expected, a sign that the U.S. economic growth picked up at the start of the year despite increased rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation. Sales at U.S. Sales at U.S. The S&P 500 was off 0.6%

Retail 98

Retail Sales Economy Economics 98

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. percent decline in retail sales, which would be the fourth decline in the past five months. percent decline in retail sales, which would be the fourth decline in the past five months.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 20, 2023

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in May were up 0.34% and up 1.23% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales increased by 0.22% and were down 2.42% year-over-year.

Retail 52

Retail Sales Economics 52

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump After First Republic Sale There are different levels of "failure" and the resolution that arrived today is one of the more palatable versions. In general, strong economic data puts upward pressure on rates. All day, Light vehicle sales for April.

Sales 62

Sales Manufacturing Economics 62

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2024

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • They're currently still well under 7%, meaning that a vast majority of the improvement has been retained despite the modest erosion. [

Retail 57

Retail Sales Economics Numbers 57

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Advance Retail Sales from Census Department, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for October. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes , were $694.5

Retail 130

Retail Sales Food Economics 130

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales Set for Biggest Volume Gain in 2023 (pay content). emphasis added Note: When writing "biggest volume gain", Wards is referring to the year-over-year gain since sales were especially weak in May 2022. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for May (Red). From WardsAuto: May U.S.

Sales 82

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 82

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

Light-Vehicle Sales Show Signs of Life (pay content). million, but also meaning November-December results will weaken from October, with the primary reason being stiffer economic headwinds expected. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red). From WardsAuto: October U.S.

Sales 82

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 82

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 6, 2022

Here are two holiday retail sales forecasts. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% Here is a graph from the NRF showing the year-over-year change in retail sales in November and December (ex-automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants). billion and $960.4

Retail 82

Retail Sales Economics Accounting 82

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2023

Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May. Auto sales remained unchanged or exhibited moderate growth across most Districts. Despite higher mortgage rates, demand for residential real estate remained steady, although sales were constrained by low inventories. Energy activity decreased.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Retail Manufacturing 52

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Additionally, retail sales kicked off the year with a large jump, suggesting the very tight labor market and solid income growth is supporting more-than-healthy consumer activity. Retail sales surge Retail sales experienced rarely-seen growth in January after declining in four of the previous six months. percent in January.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Retail Sales 52

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). At 12:00 PM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York The consensus is for a reading of -6.8, up from -13.5. • The consensus is for 3.94

Sales 62

Sales Manufacturing Economics 62

Advisor Perspectives

FEBRUARY 25, 2023

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier this week, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and income Employment, unemployment, and hours Personal consumption and housing Sales, orders, and inventories

Sales 59

Sales Economics 59

Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 19, 2022

In his comments, Chairman Powell maintained a hawkish stance as the Fed continues to prioritize reducing inflation, even if it means some economic pain. Although total retail sales were down in November, spending at restaurants remained strong – now up 14 percent over the past year. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Transportation Sales 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2023

BEA will release initial results from the 2023 comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts , which include the National Income and Product Accounts as well as the Industry Economic Accounts, on September 28, 2023." • At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 1.0% decrease in the index. •

Sales 67

Sales Accounting Education Manufacturing 67

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

The latest batch of economic data continue to signal that a recession is on the horizon — we still foresee a downturn unfolding in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) posted its 12th straight monthly decline, falling to its lowest level since November 2020. from a year ago. jump in February.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Food 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

FOMC Says Inflation Is Still Too High Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week. 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Durable Goods Orders. Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Economics 59

Economics Taxes Investment Advisor Investing 59

Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 12, 2022

December 15: Retail sales projected to pull back in November. percent drop in auto sales heavily weighing on the headline reading, retail sales likely fell 0.4 Excluding auto sales, we estimate that sales were flat. (see our full report to learn more). Due to the 3.4 percent overall.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Manufacturing 52

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 6, 2023

Other economic data showed a surprising jump in housing market activity and jobless claims remained very low, while core durable goods orders and shipments when adjusted for inflation were softish. Economic data remains positive Other economic indicators also pointed to continued growth.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Economy 52

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 14, 2024

riabiz.com) How this hedge fund cleaned up on the sale of Seagen to Pfizer ($PFE). msn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Finance Franklin Templeton ($BEN) is moving aggressively beyond stocks and bonds. wsj.com) How fast can Blackrock ($BLK) really grow earnings? wapo.st) Global plastic making capacity keeps rising.

Financial Advising 200

Financial Advising Medical Media Food 200

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 27, 2023

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on yesterday, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and Income Employment, Unemployment, and Hours Personal Consumption and Housing Sales, Orders, and Inventories

Sales 52

Sales Economics 52

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 19, 2023

After a stretch of wildly positive economic surprises, the latest US retail sales data felt like more of a mixed bag: the top-line number missed forecasts and, partially in response, stocks drifted aimlessly between losses and modest gains.

Retail 52

Retail Sales Economics Numbers 52

Advisor Perspectives

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on yesterday, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and Income. Sales, Orders, and Inventories. Employment, Unemployment, and Hours. Personal Consumption and Housing.

Sales 52

Sales Economics 52

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The large declines in retail sales in December and November signals that consumer spending lost a lot of steam despite some cooling in inflation as we ended 2022. On the housing front, existing home sales fell for an eleventh straight month as prospective homebuyers continue to contend with low inventory and high mortgage rates.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Engineering 52

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 5, 2024

bonddad.blogspot.com) Heavy truck sales ticked down in March. calculatedrisk.substack.com) Americans are confusing the current economic situation with their hopes for the future. (calculatedriskblog.com) Weekly initial unemployment claims ticked higher. calculatedriskblog.com) Immigration is positive for growth and housing.

Financial Advising 235

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 235

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slid 4.0% in November P ending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in November , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity." All four U.S. in November. The West index dropped by 0.9%

Sales 73

Sales Economics Numbers 73

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers?

Financial Advising 221

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 221