March, 2024

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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Everything has an opportunity cost, everything. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week The Roaring 20's are here. Enjoy it while you can. (awealthofcommonsense.com) There's no alpha left in private equity. (linkedin.com) Patrick Mahomes finally takes an L. (sportico.com) Are index funds propping up the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Which bonds prove as the best portfolio diversifier?

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4 Moves You Can Make with Your Old 401(k)

Carson Wealth

By Matt Kory, Vice President, Retirement Programs Changing careers is an emotional move – there’s excitement for the new opportunity, sadness about leaving your favorite coworkers behind, depression if you weren’t ready to leave, worry about how to financially bridge the unemployment gap and anticipation of the new career all at once. Take a breath, you can take some time to understand your options.

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How The Interstate Highway System Changed American Industry

Fortune Financial

Signed into law in 1956 by then President Dwight Eisenhower, the Federal Highway Act created the Interstate Highway System , which would become the largest and costliest public works project in history. Measuring almost 48,000 miles in total distance, the Interstate Highway System was completed only in 1992, more than three decades after work began, and for a total cost in today’s dollars of more than $500 billion. ( source: Wikipedia Commons ) Inspired in large part by the German Autoba

Retail 141
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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20 Lessons From 20 Years of Managing Money

A Wealth of Common Sense

I entered the workforce in 2005. That means I’ve been working in the investment business for 20 years now. The longer I’m in the money management business the more there is to learn but these are some of the things I’ve learned thus far: 1. Experiences shape your perception of risk. Your ability and need to take risk should be based on your stage in life, time horizon, financial circumstances and goals.

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U.S. population distribution, 1975-2050

The Big Picture

We sometimes say “Demographics is Destiny,” but that’s abstract. To get a visual sense of what that looks like, see the above chart (via Blackrock ) showing the distribution of various age groups from 2075 to 2050. Note bars in Red are not in the workforce. The post U.S. population distribution, 1975-2050 appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site What is wrong with this picture? How your charitable intentions can get co-opted after you are gone. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. (morningstar.com) How home buying is going to change with the upheaval of realtor commissions. (thebasispoint.com) Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the re

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6 Signs It’s Time to Ditch DIY Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

Retirement planning is a journey that generally takes decades to complete and most of us start out along the do-it-yourself path. More than likely, your first step was to enroll in an employer-provided plan such as a 401(k) or setting up an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA. But at some point, most of us need to graduate from the DIY approach and seek advice from a retirement planning professional.

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The High Cost of Brexit

Advisor Perspectives

I have written this month’s Absolute Return Letter with a heavy heart. I don’t take any pleasure from other people’s misery.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Are We Living in The Roaring 20s?

A Wealth of Common Sense

In March 2020, at the height of uncertainty at the outset of the pandemic, I wrote about what it took to get to the roaring 1920s. This chart sums it up nicely: Here’s what I wrote at the time: How many people at the time would have predicted during the war/pandemic/recession/depression years that the 1920s would be one of the most innovative, prosperous periods our country had ever seen?

Marketing 132
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.0% year-over-year in January

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in January 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Assets 134
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At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut

The Big Picture

At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut with Jim Bianco (March 13, 2024) Markets have been waiting for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates for over a year. What data should investors be following for insight into when they will begin? Jim Bianco discusses initial unemployment claims data and wage gain to identify when the Fed will start lowering rates.

Numbers 286
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Wednesday links: a good process

Abnormal Returns

Crypto Travis Kling, "The evidence for the rise of Financial Nihilism is all around us." (epsilontheory.com) How much is Bitcoin worth? Nobody really knows. (wired.com) The spot Bitcoin ETF fee war is here. (etf.com) Finance Why Evercore ($EVR) is outperforming other investment banks. (on.ft.com) There is still a lot of uncertainty around office building valuations.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Your Retirement Planning Starter Pack

Carson Wealth

By Jake Anderson, CFP ® , Wealth Planner When helping clients begin retirement planning, the same questions often arise: What should my retirement plan look like? How much should I be saving? Although there are some basic guidelines, your financial life is as unique as your fingerprint. Your lifestyle, goals, family situation, and risk tolerance will give a unique signature to your retirement plan.

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Getting into the Game: How Private Equity Funds Have Jumped into Professional Sports

Wealth Management

Rising valuations and growing opportunities for media rights and sponsorships make professional sports teams an attractive bet. However, data on how these investments will work in the long term remains scarce.

Valuation 126
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The Most Important Concept in Finance

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’m really late on this one, but I finally got around to reading Andre Agassi’s autobiography.1 He writes about what it was like to finally win his first Grand Slam tournament at Wimbledon. Everyone’s perception of Agassi changed from choke artist to the real deal. Winning, however, didn’t change how he felt about himself: But I don’t feel that Wimbledon has changed me.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 9.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 1, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How a Physics Whiz Made a Fortune Betting on Nature’s Catastrophes : John Seo used his scientific knowledge to develop a winning formula for trading catastrophe bonds — a market that’s booming thanks to climate change and inflation. ( Bloomberg Green ) • How neuroscience can help you make tough decisions – with no regrets : Most people are too risk-averse when it

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Personal finance links: a shared home

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Amy Arnott talk with Anne Lester author of "Your Best Financial Life: Save Smart Now for the Future You Want." (morningstar.com) Dan Haylett talking Paul Armson about lifestyle financial planning. (humansvsretirement.com) Shane Parrish talks with Chris Davis about the challenges of inter-generational wealth. (fs.blog) Khe Hy talks with Noah Kagan about building a side hustle without losing your mind.

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The Corporate Transparency Act: What You Need to Know

Carson Wealth

By Mike Valenti, CPA, CFP®, Director,Tax Planning LLCs can provide legal protections and a level of anonymity, either or both of which can be beneficial for business owners, investors, and others with valid intentions. But those features also attract criminal activity, and layers of shell companies can create excellent cover for those involved in fraudulent activities.

License 129
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DOL Fiduciary Rule in Final Stretch as AARP, Insured Retirement Institute Set White House Meetings

Wealth Management

Supporters and critics of the proposed rule are setting up discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, one of the last steps before the final rule will be revealed.

Insurance 125
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Demographics Rules Everything Around Me

A Wealth of Common Sense

America is in a weird place demographically-speaking. On the one hand, we have 70 million baby boomers reaching retirement age. They control most of the wealth. They control most of the housing market. And they still control the thermostat when you visit their houses. On the other hand, we have 73 million millennials who are in their prime household formation years.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average.

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Breaking Bad Momentum Trends

Alpha Architect

In their two papers, Goulding, Harvey, and Mazzoleni showed that observed market corrections and rebounds carry predictive information about subsequent returns and showed how that information could be utilized to enhance the performance of trend-following strategies by dynamically blending slow and fast momentum strategies based on four-state cycle-conditional information.

Marketing 124
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Five thoughts on the power of letting go. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week What happens when you invest right before a bear market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Solana is at new all-time highs. (allstarcharts.com) Consumer Reports' top ten list for 2024 is filled with hybrids. (cnbc.com) The Magnificent Seven is all anybody can talk about in the U.S.

Investing 292
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive?

The Irrelevant Investor

Stocks in the United States are more expensive than they used to be. Like, a lot more. You used to be able to buy a blue-chip company for fifteen times earnings. There was a time, a normal non-recessionary time, when you could buy the S&P 500 for fifteen times earnings. Prior to the dotcom bubble, there was only one instance when U.S. stocks traded at 25x times inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous decade.

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Will Tech VC Funds Become the New Frontier for Private Wealth?

Wealth Management

Investing in venture capital funds targeting tech start-ups carries high risks and requires a tolerance for decades of illiquidity. But all it takes is one outperforming company to make it worth it.

Investing 120
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Avoiding Burnout & a Mid-Life Crisis

A Wealth of Common Sense

A podcast listener asks: How do you both manage to produce podcasts every week, handle your jobs, write, read, and raise families without burning out? How do you maintain this balance? What strategies do you use to recharge yourselves? Personally, when I go on vacation, I completely disconnect from work, yet I’ve noticed you guys continue podcasting even during your vacations.