The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 22, 2024
A quick note to answer this question: What happens after markets make a new all-time high (after a year w/o one)? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month. Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. That was after housing had peaked, subprime mortgages were defaulting, and the great financial crisis was about to start.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 13, 2024
Private equity What does the research say about private equity performance? (morningstar.com) Why it's so hard to compare public and private investments. (caia.org) Fund management How should we assess 'pedigree' when it comes to investment managers? (investmentecosystem.com) Why hedge funds are happy with higher short term interest rates. (bloomberg.com) Quant stuff Researchers are now unleashing ChatGPT on stock selection models.
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Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
The firm’s board is already conducting a search for his successor. Additionally, Greg Davis has been appointed as president in addition to his current role as chief investment officer.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 14, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem
Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 27, 2024
Despite 5% short-term interest rates and stickier inflation than some people would like and the Fed potentially pushing back interest rate cuts for a few months and the new True Detective seasons being a massive disappointment…the S&P 500 continues to take out new all-time highs. By my count there have already been a baker’s dozen in 2024 alone.1 Here are the new highs by year since 2015: 2015: 10 2016: 1.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 14, 2024
At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? (February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? What is the correlation between geopolitical conflict and inflation? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? In this episode, I speak with Jeffrey Hirsch about what happens to equities after global conflicts.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 4, 2024
Top clicks this week Josh Brown, "Just please, no matter what you do, don’t say the G word. Never say it." (downtownjoshbrown.com) Should you invest in stocks when they are at all-time highs? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why the vast majority of investors should avoid alternatives. (humbledollar.com) Are you doing these seven things that represent 'real financial planning'?
The Irrelevant Investor
FEBRUARY 26, 2024
Today was one of the best days of my life. I got to meet and interview my favorite athlete of all time, Eli Manning. Surreal is putting it mildly. I’ve never felt more of an emotional connection to an athlete than Eli, and I never really thought about why until this weekend when I was writing an introduction for him. I am a lifelong die-hard Giants and Knicks fan.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Receded 4.9% in January Pending home sales in January dropped 4.9% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest and South recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 74.3 in January.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 4, 2024
Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis there was this running narrative that the United States economy was the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry hamper. Yes, our economic recovery was tepid but the rest of the world was a mess. The European Union was falling apart. Emerging markets were in disarray. China seemed like it wanted to put up a fight for our economic seat on the throne but never made a serious attempt to di.
Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 22, 2024
Investors tend to appreciate private credit for delivering current income and lower volatility. In a world of higher interest rates, it also gives them the opportunity to achieve higher yields.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 15, 2024
Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up ” As the chart above shows, Shelter was 2/3rds of the increase in the most recent. ( Chart thanks to Michael McDonough ).
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 26, 2024
Podcasts Frazer Rice talks Florida and California property insurance issues with Aon's LaTanya Simmons. (open.spotify.com) Michael Kitces talks with Ben Hockema. who is the Founder of Illuminate Wealth Management about how to fund your RIA. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby on why not caring what other people think is a valuable asset. (standarddeviationspod.com) Diana Britton talks with Michael Kitces about adviser well-being.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
The Irrelevant Investor
FEBRUARY 1, 2024
Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by BlackRock: See here for more information on BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust On today’s show, we discuss: New York Community Bancorp stock plunges 38%, reigniting fears for regional banks Mark Zuckerbergs reported $100M compound in Hawaii Listen here: Charts: Tweets: Worst Fed day for the stock market since March 2023 (and fourth-worst.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 28, 2024
"Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity", Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 18, 2024
There’s a cohort of people who think the stock market is rigged. They assume it’s a casino where only certain people win and everyone else loses. Or everything is manipulated by the Fed and the results are fake. If it weren’t for the bailouts or falling interest rates or government spending or the Taylor Swift Eras Tour, the whole house of cards would collapse.
Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 28, 2024
Nesvold says she’ll certainly use her M&A know-how, but she’ll also play a larger role connecting the dots between Emigrant’s businesses—with the high-net-worth individual at the center of it all.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
A century of tech adoption in 30 seconds click for animation Source: Blackrock The post U.S. Technology Adoption, 1900-2021 appeared first on The Big Picture.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 19, 2024
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff dives deeper into equity compensation with Derek Jess of Plancorp. (peterlazaroff.com) Why older women are saying no to marriage, largely for money reasons. (washingtonpost.com) Daniel Crosby offers another sneak preview of an essay from his upcoming book, "The Soul of Wealth." (standarddeviationspod.com) Trends The wealth management industry is going to be slammed with demand.
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 6, 2024
As advisors are striving for that truly personal touch with their clients (and how much more personal can you get than eye-to-eye), there is increased interest in more in-person prospecting events. My guest today will discuss how he and his team have unlocked the power of seminars, giving advisors and firms opportunities to make a lasting impression and turn intrigued prospects into clients.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 27, 2024
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 5.5% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2023 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 8, 2024
A reader asks: Investing at all time highs is counterintuitive. Does it produce great returns because the market is forward-looking and investors are momentum investors? It doesn’t seem to make sense to buy just before a long severe bear market. I understand the worry here. All-time highs seem scary because every stock market crash in history started from one.
Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 15, 2024
Anya Coverman, president and CEO of the Institute for Portfolio Alternatives, talks about potential policies at the federal and state levels that could stem advisors’ ability to use alternative investments in client portfolios.
Alpha Architect
FEBRUARY 2, 2024
While the evidence makes clear that active management is a loser’s game (one that it is possible to win but so unlikely you should not try), we don’t want active managers to disappear. Hope should continue to triumph over evidence, wisdom, and experience because active managers help eliminate market anomalies and inefficiencies created by the misbehavior of investors (such as noise traders).
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 28, 2024
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff with five reasons you need a financial plan that have nothing to do with money. (peterlazaroff.com) Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand talk with Justin Castelli about your mission in life. (youtube.com) How well do you know yourself? Barry Ritholtz talks with David Dunning. (ritholtz.com) Christine Benz and Amy Arnott talk with Marc Freedman who the co-CEO and founder of Encore.org about working later in life.
Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®
Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 12, 2024
There are three pitfalls that I most commonly see income investors fall victim to. I hope illustrating them will help you avoid their damaging effects on your investment portfolio.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2024. CPI Shelter was up 6.1% year-over-year in January, down from 6.2% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.1% YoY in January , down from 6.3% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
A reader asks: What’s the biggest risk in the markets right now? The simple answer here is the one everyone has been preparing for over the past 24 months — a recession. In the post-WWII era, the U.S. economy has slipped into a recession roughly once every 5 years or so, on average. Look at how spaced out those recessions (the grey bars) have become in recent decades: From the late-1940s through the early-198.
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