Sat.Apr 06, 2024 - Fri.Apr 12, 2024

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A Short History of Stocks

The Big Picture

Confused about where we are today? A favorite exercise is to go back to first principles to consider how we got to where we are. (That is a favorite way to find fresh insights). On the equity side, you have to go back a century or so. Equities were considered speculative endeavors, best suited for gamblers and punters. The exceptions? A handful of “Widows & Orphan” stocks, like Ma Bell, some railroads, utilities and the rare bank that was not suffering regular runs.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Better investors make fewer decisions. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% return in Q1. (wsj.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2024. (capitalspectator.com) How to choose among total stock market ETFs. (humbledollar.com) Hyundai and Kia are crushing it in the U.S.

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In The Long Run, Stocks Outperform Bonds… Or Do They?

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advicers are intimately familiar with the phrase, "Past results are not indicative of future performance." Every document that considers the facts around any particular asset class will invariably include that disclaimer, but constructing a portfolio consisting of a mix of equities, fixed income, and other assets requires investors and advicers to make some fundamental assumptions around long-term expected returns and correlations between assets. 3 common assumptions that have driven a

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2024.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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What Recession? State Coincident Indicators

The Big Picture

Between book leave and COVID I have been pretty quiet lately. Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening.

More Trending

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 13-14)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study has found that many small- and mid-sized advisory firms that use "supported independence" platforms for their technology and back-office needs, have the potential to see greater growth in the years ahead given the efficiencies gained (and potential cost savings compared to creating a tech stack and hiring their own staff 'a la carte'), and give aspiring firm

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Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Rises to 2.1% in March

Advisor Perspectives

Wholesale inflation heated up last month but came in slightly lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.6% in February to 2.1% in March.

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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The Real Crisis in Humanities Isn’t Happening at College Our problem is in the real world—not the ivory tower—and so is the solution. ( The Honest-Broker ) • Transparent Vice: How Vice’s execs burned down its newsroom : Once promised to become the brash young voice of news, it became a den of wild expenses, shady deals, and greed turned it into ‘a f **g clown show.’ ( The Verge ) • The Future of Am

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Thursday links: quality strategies in disguise

Abnormal Returns

Markets These 15 stocks destroyed the most value in the past decade. (morningstar.com) Is the worst over for the UK stock market? (ft.com) Strategy All-time highs shouldn't prevent you from investing in the stock market. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) What perma-bears get wrong about this stock market. (theatlantic.com) Financial media Robinhood-backed ($HOOD) Sherwood News has launched.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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#FA Success Ep 380: Expanding Capacity For $500M Of Organic AUM Growth In Just 4 Years By Increasing The Density Of Team Talent, With Andrew Leonard

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 380th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Andrew Leonard. Andrew is the Managing Partner of Geometric Wealth Advisors, an RIA based in Washington, D.C., that oversees approximately $750 million in assets under management for about 200 client households. What's unique about Andrew, though, is how his firm has been able to triple its AUM in the past 4 years while offering a high-touch client experience by adopting the a

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Everything I Am

The Irrelevant Investor

The most important thing that determines how successful you are in life cannot be quantified. Success is a loaded word that means different things to everyone. At its core, success is happiness. Hard stop. If you’re rich and miserable, you’re not successful. There’s a hierarchy of happiness. At the foundational level is health. Without that, you have nothing.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000 , a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average.

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Monday links: big lessons

Abnormal Returns

Strategy It's way too easy to mislead someone with charts. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Once you start humble bragging, it's time to rein things in. (radreads.co) Companies Taiwan Semi ($TSM) is doubling down on its U.S. production plans. (arstechnica.com) The path to a new and improved Paramount Global ($PARA) is complex. (finance.yahoo.com) Global With a rate hike in the books, is Japan's economy finally normalizing?

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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What It Takes To Attract And Serve HNW Entrepreneurs As A Financial Advisor

Nerd's Eye View

Among the many client niches financial advisors serve, successful business owners are often seen as an attractive group to work with, given the complexity of their financial situations (meaning that advisors have significant room to add value) and that many fall into the High Net Worth (HNW) category with as much as $5 million (and more) in assets, giving advisors a chance to move 'upmarket'.

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Who is Buying a House in this Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

According to Redfin, we just hit another new all-time high in the median monthly payment (based on current home prices and mortgage rates): The median payment for a new purchase has doubled since 2021. Mortgage rates were back up to 7.4% this week. Nationwide housing prices are still are all-time highs and up around 50% since the end of 2019. There has been this feeling of something has to give for a while now but nothi.

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Don’t Be Afraid

The Irrelevant Investor

I want to talk about the feelings we get when putting money to work at all-time highs. But first, a quick programming note. Two of the things I love the most are movies and business. Nobody talks about the intersection of my two favorite topics like Matt Belloni. I read him every week at Puck and listen to him every week on The Ringer’s The Town.

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Friday links: infrequent revolutions

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Prospective bond returns are buoying the prospects for a 60/40 portfolio. (axios.com) How indexing came to dominate the investment business. (ritholtz.com) 15 investing principles including 'I believe managing one’s behavior is more important than managing one’s investments.' (betterletter.substack.com) Companies BP ($BP) is the cheapest stock among the giants.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Merit Financial Advisors: Using Technology To Fuel Growth

Wealth Management

JP Pattinson, wealth manager, vice president of technology and partner at Merit Financial Advisors, has helped shape the rapid expansion of the $10-billion-AUM firm through technology.

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How to Lie With Charts

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader sent me the following chart asking for my thoughts: I honestly don’t know who the creator of this chart is. I don’t know the intention of it either but the fact that the title contains the word collapse makes it sound scary. Knowing that housing prices in the U.S. are at all-time highs makes this chart seem suspect, but the data checks out.

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NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Falls to Lowest Level Since 2012

Advisor Perspectives

The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 88.5 in March, the lowest level since 20212. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 88.8 and marked the 27th straight month the index has been below the series average of 98.0.

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Sunday links: for the joy of it

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Ben Carlson "Constantly predicting the end times might help you gain subscribers but it doesn’t help people make money." (awealthofcommonsense.com) Who says bull markets can't be stressful? (tker.co) Things that are obvious, often aren't. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Companies Why Chipotle ($CMG) is splitting its stock 50:1. (wsj.com) Cruise line Viking has filed to go public.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Carson Group Names Dani Fava As Chief Strategy Officer

Wealth Management

The news comes just days after the firm revealed that CEO and founder Ron Carson was stepping down from his role to become chairman of the board.

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 9% in March

Calculated Risk

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Fell 9% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 8.6% in March to 164.0 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 179.5. Over the month, commercial planning fell 3.2% and institutional planning dropped 17.2%. “In 2023, commercial planning decreased while institutional planning notably improved, sitting 29% above year-ago levels in February 2024.

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Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI

Advisor Perspectives

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for March puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.48%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 10th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.79%.

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Longform links: changing your mind

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "The Weight of Nature: How a Changing Climate Changes Our Brains" by Clayton Page Aldern. (grist.org) A Q&A with Steven Kurutz author of "American Flannel: How a Band of Entrepreneurs Are Bringing the Art and Business of Making Clothes Back Home." (insidehook.com) Annie Duke talks with Michael Norton, author of "From Habit to Ritual, Harness the Surprising Power of Everyday Actions.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Retirement Planning Cannot Be Linear

Wealth Management

Adopting an adaptive approach to retirement planning acknowledges the dynamic nature of spending patterns and emphasizes flexibility in financial strategies.

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BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in March; Core CPI increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose in March , as did the index for gasoline.

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Direct plans of mutual funds offer much higher returns than regular plans, more than the difference in their expense ratio

Truemind Capital

Do you know that direct plans of mutual funds offer much higher returns than regular plans, more than the difference in their expense ratio? To know better, read it till the end. Every mutual fund scheme has two plans to offer – Regular & Direct. Both plans have the same fund manager and the same portfolio. The only difference is the expense ratio.

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