Abnormal Returns
APRIL 25, 2024
Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. (allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. (morningstar.com) Strategy Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit. (seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 26, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Department of Labor released the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (a.k.a. the Fiduciary Rule 2.0), which is set to go into effect in September and (if it survives anticipated legal challenges) would represent a significant shift toward greater fiduciary standards in the financial services industry, including by defining as a fiduciary act a one-time recomm
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The Big Picture
APRIL 25, 2024
A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears. Some of this is that “long and variable lag” of higher rates starting to bite — but it’s not just that.
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 23, 2024
There was a recent poll about my home state of Michigan where they asked people for their thoughts on the state of the nation’s economy today. Just 35% of people described the economy as excellent (6%) or good (29%) while 65% described it as either not so good (28%) or poor (37%). But when asked how they would describe their own personal financial situation these days, a majority of people (61%) described their circ.
Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem
Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 21, 2024
Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. Time to buy. (morningstar.com) Why everyone in finance seems to be doing deadlifts. (wealthmanagement.com) Franklin Templeton ($BEN) is moving aggressively beyond stocks and bonds. (wsj.com) 15 more ideas from Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety" including 'Investment must be thought of as more than stock selection or making a series of solid individual investment decisions.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
APRIL 26, 2024
This week, we speak with Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research , a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in New York City. He taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and t
Calculated Risk
APRIL 26, 2024
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent).
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 21, 2024
Rates Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." (barrons.com) You likely don't need a long-term bond fund. (wsj.com) Strategy The market's most important lessons have to be experienced. (microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Financial trends reverse just when they seem inevitable. (humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 24, 2024
Over the past few decades, advicers have used Monte Carlo analysis tools to communicate to clients if their assets and planned level of spending were sufficient for them to realize their goals while (critically) not running out of money in retirement. More recently, however, the Monte Carlo "probability of success/failure" framing has attracted some criticism, as it can potentially alter the way that a client perceives risk, leading them to make less-than-ideal decisions.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Big Picture
APRIL 21, 2024
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘Water is more valuable than oil’: the corporation cashing in on America’s drought : In an unprecedented deal, a private company purchased land in a tiny Arizona town – and sold its water rights to a suburb 200 miles away. Local residents fear the agreement has ‘opened Pandora’s box.’ ( The Guardian ) • Why don’t rich people eat anymore?
Calculated Risk
APRIL 26, 2024
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in March , down slightly from 5.8% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 23, 2024
Geopolitics A look at how geopolitical events affect the stock market. (carsongroup.com) Why we fear doing nothing during a geopolitical crisis. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Strategy Investors need to understand history and be willing to look ahead. (morningstar.com) Why people make seemingly bad financial decisions. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Companies Meta ($META) never wants to be at the mercy of Apple ($AAPL).
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 21, 2024
In the early-1980s, Robert Shiller set out to answer the question: Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? The idea was to figure out how well the stock market tracks the present value of future cash flows in the short-term. Shiller concluded that, no, stock prices do not neatly track fundamentals. He updated that data in his book Irrational Exuberance: The cash flows move very l.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Wealth Management
APRIL 26, 2024
As clients become increasingly aware of the complexities of wealth transfer, asset protection and legacy planning, they expect comprehensive guidance from their advisors.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 24, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 26, 2024
The biz Beware the fake podcast invite. (bigtechnology.com) The Apple ($AAPL)-Spotify ($SPOT) battle is just exhausting. (spyglass.org) Economy Barry Ritholtz talks with Bill McBride about which economic data really matters. (ritholtz.com) James Pethokoukis talks economic optimism with Ed Yardeni. (fasterplease.substack.com) Derek Thompson talks with Ravi Agrawal, the editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, about India under Modi.
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 26, 2024
Here’s the lede from a Bloomberg article about rich people trying to avoid taxes in New York City: At New Jersey’s Teterboro and Long Island’s Islip airports, dozens of private jets destined for Florida take off at times such as 11:42 p.m. or 11:54 p.m. Over at JFK, a regular flight from San Juan, Puerto Rico, arrives at a seemingly purposeful time: about 15 minutes after midnight.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 25, 2024
In the week ending April 20, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 214,000 jobless claims.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 25, 2024
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2023. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2023 was 3,591,328, down 2% from 2022. The general fertility rate was 54.4 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, down 3% from 2022. The total fertility rate was 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women in 2023, a decline of 2% from 2022.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 24, 2024
Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. peaked in 2012. (sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads. (bloomberg.com) ETFs Where active ETFs are growing fastest. (morningstar.com) The iShares Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT) is a runaway hit. (theblock.co) Retail investors trade leveraged ETFs way too much. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) TikTok The clock is now ticking for a TikTok divestiture.
Wealth Management
APRIL 24, 2024
Prosperitage Wealth's Brian Seymour explains the crucial role coaching played in shaping his career, helping him identify his unique strengths and develop his “super power.
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Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 26, 2024
The S&P 500 capped off its best week of the year as it rose 2.67% from last Friday. The weekly gain ends the index's streak of three straight weekly losses. The index is currently up 7.53% year to date and now sits 2.94% below its record close from March 28, 2024.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 24, 2024
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 212 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 22, 2024
Podcasts Brian Portnoy talks human-centric advice with Kelsey McKenna and Zachary Conway of Seeds Investor. (youtube.com) Larry Sprung talks with Josh Brown about his path to wealth management. (mitlinmoneymindset.libsyn.com) Jordan Haynes talks with Justin Castelli about his transition into life planning, especially for financial advisers. (getelements.com) Frazer Rice talks with Christopher Holtby about the role of a directed trustee.
Walkner Condon Financial Advisors
APRIL 26, 2024
Whether you are engaged or have recently married, developing a plan to combine finances with your partner can significantly reduce finance-related stress down the road by promoting transparency and simplicity in your relationship. According to a 2021 survey conducted by Ramsey Solutions , 41 percent of married couples said that they fight about finances.
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Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.
Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 23, 2024
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained slow in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -7 this month from -11 in March, marking its 6th consecutive negative reading. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 21, 2024
As of December 2023, looking at the "dot plot" , most FOMC participants expected between 2 and 4 rate cuts in 2024: As of Dec 2023 Meeting 25 bp Rate Cuts FOMC Members No Change 2 One Rate Cut 1 Two Rate Cuts 5 Three Rate Cuts 6 Four Rate Cuts 4 More than Four 1 As of the March 2024 meeting , FOMC participants were down to 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2024: As of Mar 2024 Meeting 25 bp Rate Cuts FOMC Members No Change 2 One Rate Cut 2 Two Rate Cuts 5 Three Rate Cuts 9 Four Rate Cuts 1 Most market partici
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 22, 2024
Markets Commodities are having a standout 2024. (capitalspectator.com) When did investing become so political? (economist.com) ETFs Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust will have a 0.15% expense ratio. (coindesk.com) More mutual fund to ETF conversions are coming. (advisorhub.com) Finance The NYSE is testing 24-hour trading. (on.ft.com) Want a stake in a hot AI startup?
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