April, 2024

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A Short History of Stocks

The Big Picture

Confused about where we are today? A favorite exercise is to go back to first principles to consider how we got to where we are. (That is a favorite way to find fresh insights). On the equity side, you have to go back a century or so. Equities were considered speculative endeavors, best suited for gamblers and punters. The exceptions? A handful of “Widows & Orphan” stocks, like Ma Bell, some railroads, utilities and the rare bank that was not suffering regular runs.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week You likely don't need a long-term bond fund. (wsj.com) Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." (barrons.com) Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) At what age do we say people are 'old'? (scienceblog.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps.

Valuation 272
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How Advisors Can Work With Attorneys To Drive Better Estate Planning Outcomes For Clients

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors add value for their clients not only by helping them grow their wealth, but also by working with them to create a plan for how to use it. While much of this process may focus on the client's own lifetime planning needs (e.g., helping them develop a retirement income plan), it often also addresses the client's goals for their wealth after their death.

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The News is Making You Miserable

A Wealth of Common Sense

There was a recent poll about my home state of Michigan where they asked people for their thoughts on the state of the nation’s economy today. Just 35% of people described the economy as excellent (6%) or good (29%) while 65% described it as either not so good (28%) or poor (37%). But when asked how they would describe their own personal financial situation these days, a majority of people (61%) described their circ.

Economy 145
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4 Things Great Companies Do to Improve Cash Flow

Speaker: Indy Chakrabarti, Chief Marketing Officer at HighRadius

4 Case Studies to Optimize DSO 26 Days Sales Outstanding. Already better than most. But, should you improve on that? Why would 3 fewer days even matter? It matters because it fundamentally transforms business outcomes. Join this webinar to explore 4 things companies do to reclaim hard dollars - not just soft costs - and go from good to great! What You'll Learn 6 operational KPIs every AR manager should track: Define and track these metrics to enhance performance, drive efficiency, and make infor

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Chicago PMI Falls to 17-Month Low

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 37.9 in April from 41.4 in March. This is the fifth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since November 2022. The latest reading is worse than the 44.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a fifth consecutive month.

More Trending

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What Recession? State Coincident Indicators

The Big Picture

Between book leave and COVID I have been pretty quiet lately. Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Better investors make fewer decisions. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% return in Q1. (wsj.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2024. (capitalspectator.com) How to choose among total stock market ETFs. (humbledollar.com) Hyundai and Kia are crushing it in the U.S.

Assets 260
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#FA Success Ep 383: Leveraging YouTube Videos To Organically Grow 9X To $750M In Just 5 Years, With Troy Sharpe

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 383rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Troy Sharpe. Troy is the Founder and CEO of Oak Harvest Financial Group, an RIA based in Houston, Texas, that oversees approximately $750 million in assets under management for about 1,000 client households. What's unique about Troy, though, is how his firm's emphasis on driving organic growth through a multi-pronged marketing strategy, including a radio show, in-person semina

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30 Years of Financial Market Returns

A Wealth of Common Sense

A colleague recently asked me to run the 30 year annual returns for U.S. stocks, bonds and cash. He just wanted the returns. I couldn’t help but slice and dice the numbers and overanalyze the data because that’s what we do here. Let’s dig in. First the annual return numbers for the S&P 500, 10 year treasuries and 3 month T-bills over the 30 years ending in 2023: Some thoughts about these numbers: St.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Is Sector Neutrality in Factor Investing a Mistake?

Alpha Architect

The justification for neutralizing sectors in factor strategies is a work in progress. To date, academic researchers haven't had an empirical model to mimic the impact of removing sector "effects" on the measurement and performance of factor strategies. The authors develop and test a two-component model to address the question of, "Is Sector Neutrality in Factor Investing a Mistake?

Investing 133
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Helping Aging Parents Manage and Protect Their Finances

Carson Wealth

Your parents taught you everything you know about money. From opening your first checking account to taking out your first car loan, they were always there to guide you. But as your parents get older, they may begin turning to you for help with their finances. How do you begin to navigate this new reverse dynamic? It’s not always easy. There are both practical and emotional challenges to consider before you step in and take over your parents’ financial situation.

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1958 BMW 507 Series II Roadster

The Big Picture

In the northeast, Spring has fully sprung. Temps are expected to kiss 80 today, and after a mild winter, we have been enjoying abundant sunshine. The daffodils and tulips are up, the magnolias are blooming, and the pear and cherry trees are explosions of colors! All of that blue sky beckons us to hop in a roadster to enjoy the open road. My first high HP car was a BMW convertible, but the open-top car that set the standard was the 507.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Some interesting developments in the financial media space. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week These 15 stocks destroyed the most value in the past decade. (morningstar.com) It's way too easy to mislead someone with charts. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Two things you probably don't need to worry about, including index concentration.

Media 258
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Auditpalooza: Rocking the Month-End Close Audit

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

A good, fast, clean audit leads to a happy work life. Join us in this one-hour webinar, where we share the best ways to prepare and conduct your audit process to maximize audit satisfaction and minimize administrative time in month-end close and financial reporting. Learning objectives: This course objective is to review leading practices to maximize audit success.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 27-28)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Department of Labor released the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (a.k.a. the Fiduciary Rule 2.0), which is set to go into effect in September and (if it survives anticipated legal challenges) would represent a significant shift toward greater fiduciary standards in the financial services industry, including by defining as a fiduciary act a one-time recomm

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Generational Luck in the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Millennials around my age group graduated into the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. The labor market stunk and not just for a short while. The unemployment rate in America averaged nearly 7% from 2006 through the end of 2015: It was hard for young people to find work. And if you did find a job it probably wasn’t something you actually wanted to do.

Marketing 137
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Social Media, Analyst Behavior and Market Efficiency

Alpha Architect

Hibbert, Kang, Kumar and Mishra provided us with yet another explanation: social media is providing analysts with information that reduces their forecasting errors. The result has been an increase in market efficiency, leading to a reduction in the PEAD anomaly. The bottom line is that the ability to generate alpha continues to be under assault—trying to outperform the market by stock selection is becoming even more of a loser’s game.

Media 126
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FHFA House Price Index Rebounds in February to New High

Advisor Perspectives

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rebounded to 423.0 in February, a new all-time high. U.S. house prices increased by 1.2% from the previous month and are up 7.0% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.8% month-over-month and up 5.1% year-over-year.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Everything I Am

The Irrelevant Investor

The most important thing that determines how successful you are in life cannot be quantified. Success is a loaded word that means different things to everyone. At its core, success is happiness. Hard stop. If you’re rich and miserable, you’re not successful. There’s a hierarchy of happiness. At the foundational level is health. Without that, you have nothing.

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Thursday links: analysts and accountants

Abnormal Returns

Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. (allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. (morningstar.com) Strategy Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit. (seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.

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Reframing Risk In Retirement As “Over- And Under-Spending” To Better Communicate Decisions To Clients, And Finding “Best Guess” Spending Level

Nerd's Eye View

Over the past few decades, advicers have used Monte Carlo analysis tools to communicate to clients if their assets and planned level of spending were sufficient for them to realize their goals while (critically) not running out of money in retirement. More recently, however, the Monte Carlo "probability of success/failure" framing has attracted some criticism, as it can potentially alter the way that a client perceives risk, leading them to make less-than-ideal decisions.

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Is Auto Insurance Becoming a Crisis?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I was perusing the BLS data following the inflation release last week and one number sticks out like Victor Wembanyana standing next to a group of kindergartners. Auto insurance was up 22% over the previous 12 months versus an overall inflation rate of 3.5%. Look at the change in auto insurance rates these past few years: It’s like a meme stock.

Insurance 132
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Minimizing the Risk of Cross-Sectional Momentum Crashes

Alpha Architect

While the empirical research on cross-sectional (long-short) momentum has shown that returns have been high, investors have also experienced huge drawdowns—momentum exhibits both high kurtosis and negative skewness. Since 1926 there have been several momentum crashes that featured short, but persistent, periods of highly negative returns. For example, from June to August 1932, the momentum portfolio lost about 91%, followed by a second drawdown from April to July 1933.

Portfolio 127
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Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Rises to 2.1% in March

Advisor Perspectives

Wholesale inflation heated up last month but came in slightly lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.6% in February to 2.1% in March.

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Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.8%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent).

Food 120
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. Time to buy. (morningstar.com) Why everyone in finance seems to be doing deadlifts. (wealthmanagement.com) Franklin Templeton ($BEN) is moving aggressively beyond stocks and bonds. (wsj.com) 15 more ideas from Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety" including 'Investment must be thought of as more than stock selection or making a series of solid individual investment decisions.

Economy 255
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Assessing Payouts And Platform Fees For Profitability When Choosing An Independent Advisor Platform To Affiliate With

Nerd's Eye View

Broadly speaking, there are 2 models of working as a financial advisor: operating independently as a firm owner or with a large affiliate platform such as a wirehouse broker-dealer, independent broker-dealer, or larger corporate RIA. Deciding which model to work under is a key moment in beginning or evolving a career as an advisor. In the independent model, owners/advisors are generally paid directly by the clients they serve, and they select and pay for the vendors, services, and employees that

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A Necessary Evil in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

In the early-1980s, Robert Shiller set out to answer the question: Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? The idea was to figure out how well the stock market tracks the present value of future cash flows in the short-term. Shiller concluded that, no, stock prices do not neatly track fundamentals. He updated that data in his book Irrational Exuberance: The cash flows move very l.

Marketing 130
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Valuing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks

Alpha Architect

While there is literature that describes the "domain" of artificial intelligence, there are very few, if any that analyze the valuation and pricing of AI stocks. The authors attempt to fill the void with a two part methodology. Valuing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Valuation 123