December, 2023

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Market Commentary: Things You Don’t See in a Recession

Carson Wealth

Stocks Remain Strong Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there.

Marketing 143
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Lessons of “Number Go Up”

The Big Picture

Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.

Numbers 310
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9 Year-End Planning Tips from a Wealth Planner

Carson Wealth

By Mark N. Petersen, CPA, CFP ® , CP, Affluent Wealth Planning The holidays are upon us! That must mean it’s time to roll up my sleeves and get to work on year-end financial planning – with an emphasis on 2023 income tax. One consideration this year is that we’re two years from the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TJCA). This will mean: · Elimination of the state and local tax cap of $10,000 · The return of other itemized deductions in 2026 · Reversion of individua

Planning 143
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Six charts that defined markets in 2023. (axios.com) If you're such a great trader why are you spending all your time and effort selling a trading course? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ben Carlson, "I will never understand the permabear mindset – these people that prey on the fears of others for personal gain." (awealthofcommonsense.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality?

Marketing 283
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Live Demo: How to Achieve Reconciliation Zen

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Rich Author, Poor Readers

A Wealth of Common Sense

Robert Kiyosaki wrote one of the most-read personal finance books of all time — Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I read it early on in my career. It never really did it for me but I can see why people latch onto the allegory he shares about learning the right financial habits. It’s a good thing to get people interested in personal finance because no one teaches you this stuff.

Marketing 143

More Trending

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.7% YoY in November

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November , down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Retail Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”

The Big Picture

No, “ nearly half ” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the professional b *s at the National Retail Federation. Here’s Reuters : “The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.

Retail 352
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10 Predictions for 2024

The Irrelevant Investor

Market predictions are silly. We all learned this a long time ago. But that doesn’t mean they’re completely worthless. Even though forecasts are almost always wrong, they can be entertaining and educational. That’s all I’m trying to do with this post. Entertain and educate. Needless to say, but I have to say it anyway, nothing in this list is investment advice.

Education 127
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Thursday links: a million variables

Abnormal Returns

Markets Some data matters more than others for the stock market. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) All the price trends are headed in the right direction. (capitalspectator.com) Global The FTSE 100 trades around 10x earnings. (economist.com) Why Japanese retail investors are notoriously equity-averse. (ft.com) Strategy Historically the stock market recovers to all-time highs, sometimes it just takes time.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Staying the Course is Harder Than it Sounds

A Wealth of Common Sense

After suffering drawdowns of 21%, 25% and 35% in the bear market of 2022, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all broke even on a total return basis this week: Sure that means these markets went nowhere for nearly two years but just look at the returns since the start of 2020: Considering everything we’ve lived through those returns are not bad at all.

Investing 135
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Former Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Stifel Advisor Convicted in $4M Health Care Fraud

Wealth Management

Kaival Patel was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire and health care fraud to pocket money raised from fraudulent compound medication prescriptions, according to the DOJ.

Medical 134
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

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Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.

Economy 279
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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The Compound and Friends: Surprise! A Conversation with CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz

The Irrelevant Investor

On today’s special edition of The Compound and Friends, we are joined by George Kurtz, CEO of CrowStrike! On today’s show, we discuss: CRWD performance in 2023 Tech stock volatility post-pandemic Tech spending in 2024 CrowdStrike’s latest earnings results AI and generative AI in 2024 and beyond Listen here: Charts: Contact us at askthecompoundshow@gmail.com with any feedback, recommend.

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Personal finance links: closing out the year

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Dave Nadig about the differences between mutual funds and ETFs. (ritholtz.com) Preet Bharara talks with Morgan Housel author of "Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes." (cafe.com) Jim Dahle talks charitable giving with Adam Nash, CEO and co-founder of Daffy. (whitecoatinvestor.com) Khe Hy talks with Joe Hudson about why we worry about money.

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2023: It Was a Good Year

A Wealth of Common Sense

2022 was one of the worst years ever for financial markets. Over the past 100 years: It was the third worst year for a 60/40 portfolio. It was the seventh worst year for the S&P 500. It was the worst year ever for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Market Index. It was the worst year ever for the 10 year Treasury bond. Here’s what I wrote last year at this time: Expected returns are now higher.

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The Temptation of Factor Timing

Alpha Architect

The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle. The Temptation of Factor Timing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Economics 126
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Downshift in Economic Activity Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 20th consecutive month in November as the LEI suggests a downshift in economic activity ahead. The index dropped 0.5% from last month to 103.0, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.

Economics 121
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Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas

The Big Picture

Billie Eilish may be only 22, but she sings like a chanteuse with decades of hard living behind her — a world-weary angel. Her version of this little tune gives it an entirely different read than the original Judy Garland take from Meet Me in St Louis. I imagine this version has some studio exec suggesting she do an album of Christmas songs; but not only is it way too early in her career) for that, it’s a bit lightweight and ephemeral for her wonderful voice and phrasing; instead, sh

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Comments on November Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since Febr

Retail 122
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Research links: replacing anomalies

Abnormal Returns

Quant stuff You don't want your AI model to 'hallucinate' when analyzing SEC filings. (cnbc.com) A round-up of recent research on portfolio design including 'Outperforming Equal Weighting.' (capitalspectator.com) Regime changes happen in markets. (priceactionlab.com) Research Can machine learning help select outperforming mutual funds? (alphaarchitect.com) The Achilles heel of momentum strategies is tail risk.

Economics 271
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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The Biggest Risk in 2024

A Wealth of Common Sense

In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. These thought leaders were worried about the lasting impacts of Brexit, the upcoming U.S.

Economy 127
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Welcome to the Jungle: Mark Hurley Says the Party’s Over For Wealth Management

Wealth Management

The independent wealth management space is becoming less a friendly club and more a pitiless jungle, with big firms squeezing smaller competitors, poaching talent and where organic growth, not M&A, will drive firm value.

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The Case Against Factor Investing

Advisor Perspectives

Investing in “smart beta” was the rage in the early 2000s, as small-cap-value stocks vaulted over large-cap-growth stocks. But like all supercharged investment strategies, it didn’t last. Factors premiums have not materialized since the financial crisis. For most of the last decade, value has underperformed growth, driving the underperformance of the largest category of smart-beta strategies.

Investing 122
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ATM: Investing Skill vs. Luck 

The Big Picture

 Investing Skill vs. Luck with Michael J. Mauboussin, Counterpoint Global (Dec 6, 2023) Is it better to be lucky or good? How much of a role does luck pay in investing? And how can you tell the difference between chance and skill? In this episode of At the Money, I speak with Michael Mauboussin. ~~~ About Michael J. Mauboussin: Michael Mauboussin is head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Investing 268
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October"

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months • In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the past three months – Palm Bay (+22pp), Lakeland (+21pp), Tampa (+19pp), Cape Coral (+18pp), North Port (+16pp) and Orlando (+14pp) – are located in th

Sales 119
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) Investing is hard. Really hard. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? (tker.co) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better.

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How Many Millionaires Are There?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben in your recent blog post you said $1M investable wealth makes you rich. I would like to provide a counterargument to that. When you retire, $1M basically gives you $40,000 per year to live off of, assuming the 4% rule of thumb is a reasonable starting point to think about retirement income. So is $40k spend a year really rich? I would argue that it is middle class at best; probably lower middle class.