Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 11, 2023
Stocks Remain Strong Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 13, 2023
Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.
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Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 8, 2023
By Mark N. Petersen, CPA, CFP ® , CP, Affluent Wealth Planning The holidays are upon us! That must mean it’s time to roll up my sleeves and get to work on year-end financial planning – with an emphasis on 2023 income tax. One consideration this year is that we’re two years from the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TJCA). This will mean: · Elimination of the state and local tax cap of $10,000 · The return of other itemized deductions in 2026 · Reversion of individua
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 24, 2023
Top clicks this week Six charts that defined markets in 2023. (axios.com) If you're such a great trader why are you spending all your time and effort selling a trading course? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ben Carlson, "I will never understand the permabear mindset – these people that prey on the fears of others for personal gain." (awealthofcommonsense.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality?
Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem
Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 6, 2023
SoFi Securities, SogoTrade, M1 Finance and Open to the Public Investing will pay more than $1 million in restitution after clients were promised fees from lending securities they allegedly never received.
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The Irrelevant Investor
DECEMBER 30, 2023
Market predictions are silly. We all learned this a long time ago. But that doesn’t mean they’re completely worthless. Even though forecasts are almost always wrong, they can be entertaining and educational. That’s all I’m trying to do with this post. Entertain and educate. Needless to say, but I have to say it anyway, nothing in this list is investment advice.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 11, 2023
No, “ nearly half ” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the professional b *s at the National Retail Federation. Here’s Reuters : “The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 22, 2023
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November , down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 14, 2023
Markets Some data matters more than others for the stock market. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) All the price trends are headed in the right direction. (capitalspectator.com) Global The FTSE 100 trades around 10x earnings. (economist.com) Why Japanese retail investors are notoriously equity-averse. (ft.com) Strategy Historically the stock market recovers to all-time highs, sometimes it just takes time.
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Wealth Management
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Kaival Patel was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire and health care fraud to pocket money raised from fraudulent compound medication prescriptions, according to the DOJ.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 17, 2023
After suffering drawdowns of 21%, 25% and 35% in the bear market of 2022, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all broke even on a total return basis this week: Sure that means these markets went nowhere for nearly two years but just look at the returns since the start of 2020: Considering everything we’ve lived through those returns are not bad at all.
The Irrelevant Investor
DECEMBER 28, 2023
On today’s special edition of The Compound and Friends, we are joined by George Kurtz, CEO of CrowStrike! On today’s show, we discuss: CRWD performance in 2023 Tech stock volatility post-pandemic Tech spending in 2024 CrowdStrike’s latest earnings results AI and generative AI in 2024 and beyond Listen here: Charts: Contact us at askthecompoundshow@gmail.com with any feedback, recommend.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 6, 2023
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 10, 2023
Top clicks this week Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) Investing is hard. Really hard. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? (tker.co) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 6, 2023
The independent wealth management space is becoming less a friendly club and more a pitiless jungle, with big firms squeezing smaller competitors, poaching talent and where organic growth, not M&A, will drive firm value.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 31, 2023
2022 was one of the worst years ever for financial markets. Over the past 100 years: It was the third worst year for a 60/40 portfolio. It was the seventh worst year for the S&P 500. It was the worst year ever for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Market Index. It was the worst year ever for the 10 year Treasury bond. Here’s what I wrote last year at this time: Expected returns are now higher.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 26, 2023
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 20th consecutive month in November as the LEI suggests a downshift in economic activity ahead. The index dropped 0.5% from last month to 103.0, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 24, 2023
Billie Eilish may be only 22, but she sings like a chanteuse with decades of hard living behind her — a world-weary angel. Her version of this little tune gives it an entirely different read than the original Judy Garland take from Meet Me in St Louis. I imagine this version has some studio exec suggesting she do an album of Christmas songs; but not only is it way too early in her career) for that, it’s a bit lightweight and ephemeral for her wonderful voice and phrasing; instead, sh
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since Febr
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 26, 2023
Quant stuff You don't want your AI model to 'hallucinate' when analyzing SEC filings. (cnbc.com) A round-up of recent research on portfolio design including 'Outperforming Equal Weighting.' (capitalspectator.com) Regime changes happen in markets. (priceactionlab.com) Research Can machine learning help select outperforming mutual funds? (alphaarchitect.com) The Achilles heel of momentum strategies is tail risk.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 22, 2023
Industry experts point to continued proliferation of AI, tech stack integration, software supporting new fee models and advisors using an increasingly diverse array of applications to offer additional services as storylines to look out for in the coming year.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 26, 2023
In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. These thought leaders were worried about the lasting impacts of Brexit, the upcoming U.S.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Investing in “smart beta” was the rage in the early 2000s, as small-cap-value stocks vaulted over large-cap-growth stocks. But like all supercharged investment strategies, it didn’t last. Factors premiums have not materialized since the financial crisis. For most of the last decade, value has underperformed growth, driving the underperformance of the largest category of smart-beta strategies.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 18, 2023
Love this giant chart! You can order one at Investments Illustrated The post 2023: The Big Picture appeared first on The Big Picture.
Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®
Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 4, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months • In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the past three months – Palm Bay (+22pp), Lakeland (+21pp), Tampa (+19pp), Cape Coral (+18pp), North Port (+16pp) and Orlando (+14pp) – are located in th
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 27, 2023
Markets Every yield curve steepening is different. (integratinginvestor.com) What panic looks like in real-time. (investmenttalk.co) Strategy Forecast all you want, but unexpected stuff will happen in 2024. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Michael reviews his ten predictions from 2023 including Bitcoin prices. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Banks JP Morgan Chase ($JPM) is going earn nearly 20% of U.S. bank profits in 2023.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 15, 2023
The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle. The Temptation of Factor Timing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
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