Sat.Mar 23, 2024 - Fri.Mar 29, 2024

article thumbnail

Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

article thumbnail

Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site What is wrong with this picture? How your charitable intentions can get co-opted after you are gone. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. (morningstar.com) How home buying is going to change with the upheaval of realtor commissions. (thebasispoint.com) Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the re

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

How To Bring A Team Together For A (First-Time, In-Person) Retreat

Nerd's Eye View

For the advisor leading a virtual team, the day-to-day can offer a rewarding blend of flexibility, creativity, and productivity; at the same time, though, many of the benefits of remote work can also make it challenging to build a tight-knit team culture. For example, with flexibility comes fewer synchronous interactions, which in turn can result in less innovation, team bonding, and collaboration.

Planning 242
article thumbnail

6 Signs It’s Time to Ditch DIY Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

Retirement planning is a journey that generally takes decades to complete and most of us start out along the do-it-yourself path. More than likely, your first step was to enroll in an employer-provided plan such as a 401(k) or setting up an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA. But at some point, most of us need to graduate from the DIY approach and seek advice from a retirement planning professional.

article thumbnail

Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

article thumbnail

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Billionaires know they are. Low-wage workers are very well aware that they aren’t. But vast swaths of America’s “regular rich” don’t feel that way, and it’s keeping everybody down. [link] via Bloomberg. Electric Boogie Woogie Wagon [link] 17 astounding scientific mysteries that researchers can’t yet solve What is the universe made out of?

Math 189
article thumbnail

Tuesday links: moving toward the mean

Abnormal Returns

Markets The equity risk premium is skimpy at the moment. (capitalspectator.com) Higher for longer is helping to push Treasury yields higher. (wsj.com) Books Gary Stevenson’s book “The Trading Game” helps explain the past twenty years in the financial markets. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) What you can learn from Carrie Sun's new book “Private Equity: A Memoir.

More Trending

article thumbnail

How Bad is Wealth Inequality in America?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last week I wrote about how the collective net worth of Americans is at a new all-time high. A reader asked a fair follow-up question: I’d be interested in seeing the concentration of that net worth though…I’m guessing it’s an inverted direction. Just because many households are richer than ever doesn’t mean all of them are.

141
141
article thumbnail

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.0% year-over-year in January

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in January 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Assets 134
article thumbnail

Monday links: doing new things

Abnormal Returns

Bonds The U.S. Treasury market is only getting bigger. (wsj.com) The yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. (axios.com) Junk bond issuers are rushing to refinance and extend maturities with spreads at multi-year lows. (finance.yahoo.com) Which bonds prove as the best portfolio diversifier? (morningstar.com) AI Don't let AI mumbo jumbo from a fund manager fool you.

article thumbnail

Why Guyton-Klinger Guardrails Are Too Risky For Most Retirees (And How Risk-Based Guardrails Can Help)

Nerd's Eye View

One way financial advisors can add value for retiring clients is to estimate how much they can spend sustainably during their retirement years without depleting their investment portfolio. Advisors in this position have several options to help them determine a client's initial spending level, from 'static' approaches like the 4% Rule to more dynamic approaches that allow for higher initial withdrawal rates (but introduce the possibility of spending cuts during retirement).

article thumbnail

Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

article thumbnail

Are We Living in The Roaring 20s?

A Wealth of Common Sense

In March 2020, at the height of uncertainty at the outset of the pandemic, I wrote about what it took to get to the roaring 1920s. This chart sums it up nicely: Here’s what I wrote at the time: How many people at the time would have predicted during the war/pandemic/recession/depression years that the 1920s would be one of the most innovative, prosperous periods our country had ever seen?

Marketing 140
article thumbnail

The Power of Silence: Turning Off Notifications Enhances Productivity

Wealth Management

Reclaim your attention by embracing intentional disconnection.

133
133
article thumbnail

Longform links: enduring communication

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America" by Abrahm Lustgarten. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Jonathan Haidt author of "The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness." (davidepstein.substack.com) An excerpt from "Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout" by Cal Newport.

article thumbnail

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average.

130
130
article thumbnail

Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

article thumbnail

How Bad is Credit Card Usage in America?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I got a new credit card this week. What can I say? I’m a sucker for a good sign-up bonus and the free bags on American flights will basically pay for the annual fee. A new card always comes with a lot of paperwork. They have all sorts of numbers to run by you, along with plenty of fine print. As a personal finance junkie, I always like to thumb through this stuff.

Numbers 139
article thumbnail

Goldman Sachs: More Than One in Four Women Retire with Less Than $50K

Wealth Management

In a gender-based look at saving for retirement, the bank found some signs of improvement amid ongoing challenges faced by women.

article thumbnail

Research links: noisy, unreliable data

Abnormal Returns

ETFs How the existence of sector ETFs affects analyst estimates. (papers.ssrn.com) How mutual funds and ETFs can exist side-by-side. (papers.ssrn.com) Macro Hedging inflation risk is harder than it looks. (insights.finominal.com) How do macro factors affect trend following returns? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Quant stuff It's not difficult to calculate downside beta.

Portfolio 264
article thumbnail

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 130
article thumbnail

The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

article thumbnail

What About 60/30/10 Instead of 60/40?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben always shares the long-run returns for stocks, bonds and cash. It’s essentially 10%, 5% and 3%. I know past is not predictive, blah, blah, blah but am well aware that cash has the lowest prospective returns of the main asset classes. Knowing this full well, I still want to keep 10% of my portfolio in cash in retirement so I can sleep at night.

article thumbnail

Legacy in Limbo: Family Businesses Without Heirs

Wealth Management

Proactive succession planning can ensure a smooth transition and continued success.

Planning 131
article thumbnail

Adviser links: better Medicare coverage

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces and Carl Richards talk about how to help clients find their 'enough.' (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks financial well-being with Philip Courtenay. (standarddeviationspod.com) The biz Goldman Sachs ($GS) wants its place at the model portfolio table. (investmentnews.com) Vanguard is not budging in its negative view on crypto products.

Insurance 147
article thumbnail

#FA Success Ep 378: Scaling Growth At 1/4th The Cost Of M&A By Wading Through The “No’s” Of SmartAsset Leads, With Michael Collins

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 378th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Michael Collins. Michael is the CEO & Founder of WinCap Financial, an RIA based in Boston, Massachusetts, that oversees $80M in assets under management for 70 client households. What's unique about Michael, though, is that since 2021 he has been able to grow WinCap Financial at a rate of more than $10M of AUM per year through consistently reaching out to leads purchased through SmartAs

article thumbnail

Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

article thumbnail

The Corporate Transparency Act: What You Need to Know

Carson Wealth

By Mike Valenti, CPA, CFP®, Director,Tax Planning LLCs can provide legal protections and a level of anonymity, either or both of which can be beneficial for business owners, investors, and others with valid intentions. But those features also attract criminal activity, and layers of shell companies can create excellent cover for those involved in fraudulent activities.

License 129
article thumbnail

Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy

Meb Faber Research

Guest: Steve Edmundson is the Chief Investment Officer at the Public Employees’ Retirement System of Nevada (NVPERS), overseeing over $60 billion in assets. Recorded: 3/18/2024 | Run-Time: 48:01 Summary: As pension funds continue to hire more employees, pay more and more fees and build more complex portfolios, Steve is an outlier for his approach that emphasizes […] The post Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy appeared first on Meb Faber

article thumbnail

$750M Advisor Joins Raymond James from Schwab

Wealth Management

Lynette Ancona will be part of Raymond James’ employee advisor channel. Previously, she was a branch-based advisor with Charles Schwab.

124
124
article thumbnail

Economic Momentum

Alpha Architect

Strong empirical evidence demonstrates that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Economic Momentum was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Economics 123
article thumbnail

Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

article thumbnail

Personal Income increased 0.3% in February; Spending increased 0.8%

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays for February: Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $145.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Food 118
article thumbnail

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since July 2021

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since July 2021 this month according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 2.5 points (3.3%) to 79.4 from the February final. The latest reading was below the forecast of 76.5.

115
115
article thumbnail

The WealthStack Podcast: Top Tactics for High-Growth Firms with Sara Baker

Wealth Management

Triad Wealth Partners' Sara Baker details the innovation and tailor client experiences high-growth firms use to differentiate in a 'sea of sameness.

Clients 122
article thumbnail

Options 101: Understanding Options Basics

Alpha Architect

Options have a bad reputation, and for good reason. After all, our friends at Wall Street Bets have taken over and turned the options market into a casino. But just like options can be used for gambling, they can also be used to structure risk and formulate payoffs that have the potential to reduce risk at the portfolio level. In fact, options are one of the best tools at our disposal to manage portfolio risk, if used correctly.

Portfolio 120
article thumbnail

Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.