Sat.Mar 23, 2024 - Fri.Mar 29, 2024

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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site What is wrong with this picture? How your charitable intentions can get co-opted after you are gone. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. (morningstar.com) How home buying is going to change with the upheaval of realtor commissions. (thebasispoint.com) Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the re

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How To Bring A Team Together For A (First-Time, In-Person) Retreat

Nerd's Eye View

For the advisor leading a virtual team, the day-to-day can offer a rewarding blend of flexibility, creativity, and productivity; at the same time, though, many of the benefits of remote work can also make it challenging to build a tight-knit team culture. For example, with flexibility comes fewer synchronous interactions, which in turn can result in less innovation, team bonding, and collaboration.

Planning 209
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6 Signs It’s Time to Ditch DIY Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

Retirement planning is a journey that generally takes decades to complete and most of us start out along the do-it-yourself path. More than likely, your first step was to enroll in an employer-provided plan such as a 401(k) or setting up an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA. But at some point, most of us need to graduate from the DIY approach and seek advice from a retirement planning professional.

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Live Demo: How to Achieve Reconciliation Zen

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Billionaires know they are. Low-wage workers are very well aware that they aren’t. But vast swaths of America’s “regular rich” don’t feel that way, and it’s keeping everybody down. [link] via Bloomberg. Electric Boogie Woogie Wagon [link] 17 astounding scientific mysteries that researchers can’t yet solve What is the universe made out of?

Math 180

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (March 30-31)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” – this week’s edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey suggests Americans are increasingly prioritizing work-life balance over higher salaries, with 2/3 of respondents indicating that they would rather work at a job that they loved rather than a job they disliked but paid more money.

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Are We Living in The Roaring 20s?

A Wealth of Common Sense

In March 2020, at the height of uncertainty at the outset of the pandemic, I wrote about what it took to get to the roaring 1920s. This chart sums it up nicely: Here’s what I wrote at the time: How many people at the time would have predicted during the war/pandemic/recession/depression years that the 1920s would be one of the most innovative, prosperous periods our country had ever seen?

Marketing 134
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.0% year-over-year in January

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in January 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Assets 132
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Tuesday links: moving toward the mean

Abnormal Returns

Markets The equity risk premium is skimpy at the moment. (capitalspectator.com) Higher for longer is helping to push Treasury yields higher. (wsj.com) Books Gary Stevenson’s book “The Trading Game” helps explain the past twenty years in the financial markets. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) What you can learn from Carrie Sun's new book “Private Equity: A Memoir.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Why Guyton-Klinger Guardrails Are Too Risky For Most Retirees (And How Risk-Based Guardrails Can Help)

Nerd's Eye View

One way financial advisors can add value for retiring clients is to estimate how much they can spend sustainably during their retirement years without depleting their investment portfolio. Advisors in this position have several options to help them determine a client's initial spending level, from 'static' approaches like the 4% Rule to more dynamic approaches that allow for higher initial withdrawal rates (but introduce the possibility of spending cuts during retirement).

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The Corporate Transparency Act: What You Need to Know

Carson Wealth

By Mike Valenti, CPA, CFP®, Director,Tax Planning LLCs can provide legal protections and a level of anonymity, either or both of which can be beneficial for business owners, investors, and others with valid intentions. But those features also attract criminal activity, and layers of shell companies can create excellent cover for those involved in fraudulent activities.

License 129
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average.

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Research links: noisy, unreliable data

Abnormal Returns

ETFs How the existence of sector ETFs affects analyst estimates. (papers.ssrn.com) How mutual funds and ETFs can exist side-by-side. (papers.ssrn.com) Macro Hedging inflation risk is harder than it looks. (insights.finominal.com) How do macro factors affect trend following returns? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Quant stuff It's not difficult to calculate downside beta.

Portfolio 245
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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#FA Success Ep 378: Scaling Growth At 1/4th The Cost Of M&A By Wading Through The “No’s” Of SmartAsset Leads, With Michael Collins

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 378th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Michael Collins. Michael is the CEO & Founder of WinCap Financial, an RIA based in Boston, Massachusetts, that oversees $80M in assets under management for 70 client households. What's unique about Michael, though, is that since 2021 he has been able to grow WinCap Financial at a rate of more than $10M of AUM per year through consistently reaching out to leads purchased through SmartAs

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How Bad is Credit Card Usage in America?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I got a new credit card this week. What can I say? I’m a sucker for a good sign-up bonus and the free bags on American flights will basically pay for the annual fee. A new card always comes with a lot of paperwork. They have all sorts of numbers to run by you, along with plenty of fine print. As a personal finance junkie, I always like to thumb through this stuff.

Numbers 119
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 127
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Longform links: enduring communication

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America" by Abrahm Lustgarten. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Jonathan Haidt author of "The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness." (davidepstein.substack.com) An excerpt from "Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout" by Cal Newport.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Will Tech VC Funds Become the New Frontier for Private Wealth?

Wealth Management

Investing in venture capital funds targeting tech start-ups carries high risks and requires a tolerance for decades of illiquidity. But all it takes is one outperforming company to make it worth it.

Investing 119
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How Bad is Wealth Inequality in America?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last week I wrote about how the collective net worth of Americans is at a new all-time high. A reader asked a fair follow-up question: I’d be interested in seeing the concentration of that net worth though…I’m guessing it’s an inverted direction. Just because many households are richer than ever doesn’t mean all of them are.

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Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy

Meb Faber Research

Guest: Steve Edmundson is the Chief Investment Officer at the Public Employees’ Retirement System of Nevada (NVPERS), overseeing over $60 billion in assets. Recorded: 3/18/2024 | Run-Time: 48:01 Summary: As pension funds continue to hire more employees, pay more and more fees and build more complex portfolios, Steve is an outlier for his approach that emphasizes […] The post Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy appeared first on Meb Faber

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Monday links: doing new things

Abnormal Returns

Bonds The U.S. Treasury market is only getting bigger. (wsj.com) The yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. (axios.com) Junk bond issuers are rushing to refinance and extend maturities with spreads at multi-year lows. (finance.yahoo.com) Which bonds prove as the best portfolio diversifier? (morningstar.com) AI Don't let AI mumbo jumbo from a fund manager fool you.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since July 2021

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since July 2021 this month according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 2.5 points (3.3%) to 79.4 from the February final. The latest reading was below the forecast of 76.5.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Brent Brodeski on the Strategy Behind Savant's Rapid Growth

Wealth Management

Savant CEO and founder Brent Brodeski shares his playbook of success through M&A as a means to fill service gaps and expand his service model across 15 states, with national ambitions.

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Personal Income increased 0.3% in February; Spending increased 0.8%

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays for February: Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $145.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Food 113
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Adviser links: better Medicare coverage

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces and Carl Richards talk about how to help clients find their 'enough.' (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks financial well-being with Philip Courtenay. (standarddeviationspod.com) The biz Goldman Sachs ($GS) wants its place at the model portfolio table. (investmentnews.com) Vanguard is not budging in its negative view on crypto products.

Insurance 147
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Finishes Strong First Quarter Up 10.2%

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 closed out the first quarter of 2024 with another record close and finished Q1 up 10.2%. The index is currently up 10.79% year to date and has set a new record closing high 22 times so far this year.

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Altruist Launches Cash Platform

Wealth Management

Advisors that custody with Altruist get access as a feature of the platform, but non-Altruist advisors can join and use it as a standalone product as well.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.6% in February; Down 7.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose 1.6% in February Pending home sales in January grew 1.6% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February.

Sales 112