November, 2023

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4 Charts That Explain the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

I saw a chart this week from Bank of America that more or less sums up my entire investment philosophy: In the long run, stock prices go up. I view the stock market as a way to invest in innovation, profits, progress and people waking up in the morning looking to better their current situation. While I love the fact that this chart illustrates my long-term philosophy it’s a bit misleading.

Marketing 128
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Breaking the Chains of Time

Advisor Perspectives

Investors should embrace a genuine long-term perspective, extending their time horizons to at least 20 to 30 years. The traditional notion of long-term investing (five to 10 years) may fall short of realizing the full benefits of long-term strategies.

Investing 124
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Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

Calculated Risk

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Below 4% The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest since the Great Depression). The unemployment rate is up from 3.7% a year ago (October 2022).

Economics 128
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The Performance of Major Private Equity/LBO Firms

Alpha Architect

The claims of superior risk-adjusted performance by the PE industry are exaggerated. Given their lack of liquidity, opaqueness, and greater use of leverage, it seems logical that investors should demand something like a 3-4% IRR premium. Yet, there is no evidence that the industry overall has been able to deliver that. The Performance of Major Private Equity/LBO Firms was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Slowing U.S. Economy, State by State

The Big Picture

We spend way too much time trying to predict the future (especially this time of year). Rather than engage in futility, let’s look at the coincident indexes in all 50 states over the past 3 months, via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (October 2023). Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag).

Economy 353

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Yes, You Can Make a Solid Long-Term Care Plan: Here’s How and Why It’s Important

Carson Wealth

By Matt Lewis, CLTC ® , Vice President, Insurance In today’s world it’s fair to say that most reasonable people believe they are going to live a long life. And when you live a long life, it’s also fair to say that sooner or later, we’re going to need some form of care. Seven out of 10 people will eventually require long-term care in their lifetime. 1 How expensive that care is depends on where you live.

Planning 143
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Digital Admin for Alts Raises $20M in Latest Funding Round

Wealth Management

New York-based Arch, which aims to solve for the workflow and data problems behind alternative investments, has received funding from Focus Financial Partners, the founders of Vanilla and Altruist, and others.

Investing 140
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Should CalPERS Fire Everyone And Just Buy Some ETFs?

Meb Faber Research

“He was a U.S.-class smooth politician, which is the only way you’re going to survive in that job. It has nothing to do with investing.” That’s how Institutional Investor recently described a former CIO of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, also known as CalPERS. The description is especially interesting when considering that the “I” […] The post Should CalPERS Fire Everyone And Just Buy Some ETFs?

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My Sacreligious Personal Finance Beliefs

A Wealth of Common Sense

Personal finance was my first love in the money world. I was a saver before I ever knew what investing even was. Yet my relationship with personal finance has evolved as I’ve aged and changed my habits. Many of the personal finance rules written in stone will always apply. Live below your means. Pay yourself first. Stay out of credit card debt.

Investing 132
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Investing Behavioral Hacks

The Big Picture

Markets screamed higher yesterday after a benign CPI report showed a 0.0% monthly price increase and inflation falling to 3.2% year over year. After a big gap opening, latecomers piled in; many had been sitting on the sidelines following a challenging 2022, while others got panicked out during the 10% October drawdown. It was a classic fear-driven error, a combination of bad market timing and poor impulse control.

Investing 343
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Saturday links: years of effort

Abnormal Returns

EVs The EV business has hit a speed bump. (theverge.com) Tesla ($TSLA) has an Elon Musk problem. (lefsetz.com) EVs have an affordability problem. (businessinsider.com) Solid state batteries will change the EV equation. (axios.com) Transport Just how quickly can the shipping industry green itself? (nytimes.com) Railroad companies have been lax in maintaining bridges.

Medicine 291
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Medicare Time – Now What? Things to Know as You Start Out

Carson Wealth

By Matt Lewis, CLTC ® , Vice President, Insurance You’re turning 65 this year and Medicare is on your mind. Medicare is a subset of Social Security and run by the Social Security Administration. In my experience, it may be almost as complicated as the Internal Revenue Code! With that said, let’s answer some common questions about Medicare to help you get started.

Insurance 143
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BoB World App Scam: How Bank of Baroda cheated their own customers?

Trade Brains

BoB World App Scam : The RBI raised a red flag against the Bank of Baroda (BoB) and has suspended their mobile app ‘BoB World’ from onboarding new clients because of a 22 lakh fraud affecting 362 customers. Nearly six customers have lost around Rs. 1.1 lakh each, whereas one lost almost Rs. 1.77 lakh, and an agent stole over Rs. 3.96 lakh. So, what in the world is ‘BoB World’?

Banking 131
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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CPA Firm Windes Partners With Integrated to Launch Wealth Firm

Wealth Management

California-based accounting firm Windes will leverage Integrated Partners’ platform to provide more comprehensive services for complex clients through a new wealth management practice.

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Comments on October Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. Leisure and hospitality gained 19 thousand jobs in October. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 223 thousand jobs since Februa

Retail 131
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Interest Payments Are An Increasingly Large Part Of The US Budget Deficit

The Big Picture

Source: Chartr We talked about this 2 weeks ago , but the nation missed a fantastic opportunity to refinance all of the outstanding US debt at much lower levels. Every corporate debt issuer and homeowner in America refinanced at lower rates — except for Uncle Sam. If you were in Congress from 2015-2021, you are the reason why HALF of the projected federal debt will soon be interest payments.

Budgeting 318
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site this week Over a lifetime, you can accumulate a lot of stuff. The chances are nobody wants any of it. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why it's a great time to be an investor. (blog.validea.com) Some behavioral hacks to prevent you from blowing up your portfolio. (ritholtz.com) What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall?

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Recession Signal Resumes as Index Declines Further

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 19th consecutive month in October as the LEI resumed signaling a recession in the near term. The index dropped 0.8% from last month to 103.9, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.

Economics 128
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A Short History of the 60/40 Portfolio

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Can you please explain why financial media personnel keep saying the 60/40 is dead but they are not saying target date funds are dead? Last year was one of the worst years ever for a 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds. These are the 10 worst calendar year returns for a portfolio comprising the S&P 500 and 10 year Treasuries going back to 1928: By my calculations, 2022 was the third worst year for.

Portfolio 121
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October Brought Another Torrent of ETF Launches

Wealth Management

For the second straight month, sponsors launched dozens of new ETFs. That included eight bond ETFs, one commodoties ETF, 45 equities-based ETFs, 12 target date/multi-asset ETFs and four others.

Assets 130
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AIA: "Continuing Decline in Architecture Billings"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 15th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Continuing Decline in Architecture Billings, AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Reports The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reports that business conditions at architecture firms continued to soften in October. For the third consecutive month, the ABI score was under 50, indicating that a significant share of firms is seeing a decline in billings.

Numbers 128
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Not only are the odds stacked against you, but very often systems that have successfully timed the market have been simply lucky, and do not succeed in out-of-sample tests.

Marketing 300
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Personal finance links: cheat days

Abnormal Returns

Podcast Noah Kagan talks with Morgan Housel author of "Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes." (noahkagan.com) Peter Lazaroff on how to research a firm using it's Form ADV. (peterlazaroff.com) Khe Hy talks with Sarah Chappell about the challenges of walking away from good money. (podcasts.apple.com) Dan Haylett talks with Mike Drak about better retirement lifestyle design.

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Managing Taxes in Retirement using the Effective Marginal Tax Rate

Advisor Perspectives

Research on tax-efficient retirement distribution strategies aims to sequence withdrawals from taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-exempt accounts to maximize after-tax spending. That can be either in terms of meeting an after-tax spending goal for as long as possible or preserving the most after-tax legacy after meeting spending needs over a specified timeframe.

Taxes 126
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The First thing to Go in a Recession

The Irrelevant Investor

Leading Economic Indicators have been warning us of a recession for a long time. They’ve been negative on a year-over-year basis for 15 straight months, which is the second-longest streak of negative readings. Despite all the warnings and despite the Fed trying to slow the economy, it continues to march on: The unemployment rate has been below 4% for twenty straight months.

Economy 121
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Using Technology To Become A ‘Cyborg’ Advisor

Wealth Management

“Technology is not going to replace advisors, but advisors who do embrace technology are going to replace advisors who don’t,” said David Karr, chairman of Equitable Advisors.

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Fed SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards, Weaker Demand for All Loan Types

Calculated Risk

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2023.

Banking 128
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Adam Neumann Wounded WeWork, an Office Market Bust Finished It Off : Once the country’s most-valuable startup, the flexible-workspace company is expected to file for bankruptcy. ( Wall Street Journal ) • How to Turn Your Electric Car Into a Mobile Power Plant : “Bidirectional charging” promises to transform EVs into backup power sources and help utilities hedge against cli

Medicine 298