2023 Rhymes with 2007
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 19, 2023
The beginning of the banking and commercial real estate crisis this year has many parallels to the start of the residential real estate crisis in 2007.
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Advisor Perspectives
JULY 19, 2023
The beginning of the banking and commercial real estate crisis this year has many parallels to the start of the residential real estate crisis in 2007.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 22, 2024
Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. Ask yourself this: Is 2024 more akin to 2007, or most other markets where new all-time highs were made? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month.
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Advisor Perspectives
JULY 20, 2023
The beginning of the banking and commercial real estate crisis this year has many parallels to the start of the residential real estate crisis in 2007.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 20, 2023
US five- and 10-year yields rose to the highest levels since 2007 after hotter-than-anticipated inflation data in Canada and rising oil prices added to global concerns about resurgent price pressures.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 26, 2022
” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today. In 2007, the very same year of the Nokia Forbes cover, Apple rolled out the iPhone; not long after, the decline of Nokia’s mobile phone business began. Forbes, Oct 26, 2007. Or, they were simply unable to make the turn. Predictions and Forecasts.
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 9, 2024
Hedge funds are paid big bucks for making smart market bets. Yet these days, a simple feature of the financial plumbing — largely overlooked on Wall Street during the low interest-rate era — is helping juice industry returns.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 1, 2022
Events such as the tech/dotcom implosion, the double low in Oct 2002 and March 2003, the Great Financial Crisis in late 2007/early 2008, the lows in March 2009, and more recently, the 2020 pandemic. Genius bottom tick (2007-09): . Buying on the way down and on the way up (2007-09): .
A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 22, 2024
We were in a good negotiating position because we didn’t have a house to sell (this was back in 2007 when it was hard to sell a house). We talked to the bank ahead of time so we knew our budget. We could search for homes online. Why hire a realtor? Then we went to a showing and the realtor s.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 18, 2023
morningstar.com) The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is at its highest level since 2007. (thereformedbroker.com) Five common portfolio mistakes including 'portfolio sprawl.' capitalspectator.com) Fund fees really do matter. bilello.blog) Focus on the role bonds play in your portfolio.
Advisor Perspectives
AUGUST 22, 2023
The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain elevated even after the Federal Reserve winds up its hikes.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 15, 2022
The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 5, 2023
On the heels of its 10th consecutive rate hike since March 2022, the Federal Reserve hedged its bets on pausing rate adjustments.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 11, 2024
wsj.com) Uranium prices are at their highest level since 2007. Markets Microsoft ($MSFT) has nearly overtaken Apple ($AAPL) as the market cap leader. semafor.com) Crypto How to choose among the many spot Bitcoin ETFs. morningstar.com) How long can Grayscale hold out against the Bitcoin ETF fee war?
The Big Picture
AUGUST 24, 2023
– Fortune, August 24, 2007 The post Forget the iPhone: BlackBerry is still the one to beat appeared first on The Big Picture. The gains came at the expense of Palm (PALM), which slid from 33 percent to 24 percent.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 16, 2023
Markets The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is at its highest level since 2007. capitalspectator.com) A successful restaurant IPO doesn't imply a green light for big VC-backed tech IPOs. theinformation.com) Strategy A well thought out investment philosophy will save you a lot of trouble.
MarketWatch
FEBRUARY 28, 2023
The rate on the 6-month T-bill jumped to 5.140% on Tuesday morning and headed for its highest level since February 2007, according to Tradeweb. Short-term rates rose after data from France and Spain showed inflation to be persistently stubborn outside the U.S., suggesting the need for continued tightening by central banks.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 26, 2023
August 10, 2007) What is your Value Add ? April 12, 2018) The post How to Avoid Financial Disasters appeared first on The Big Picture.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 10, 2023
The 10 year Treasury yield recently hit 4.8%, its highest level since the summer of 2007. That’s higher than the dividend yield on all but 53 stocks in the S&P 500. Just four stocks out of 30 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average yield more than the benchmark U.S. government bond.1
The Big Picture
JANUARY 23, 2023
Unemployment is low, job openings are still high, and what looks salaries are still rising. ~~~ I have a very vivid recollection of massive firings during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Last, the Labor market remains very robust. As the chart above shows, Unemployment spiked to 10%, layoffs were ubiquitous.
The Irrelevant Investor
NOVEMBER 14, 2023
Confirmed: The iPhone 15 is the most affordable iPhone since 2007 What the US got right that Europe did not 20. The post Animal Spirits: People Love to Complain appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 13, 2023
November 3, 2006) Tracking NAR Spin (April 23rd, 2008) Realtors Get Real (March 2007) Pending Home Sales Index, NAR Housing Market “Bottoms” (January 2008) How Counter-Productive is Realtor Association Spin?
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 27, 2024
million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Wealth Management
JUNE 1, 2023
Blackstone has brought its office holdings from 60% of its portfolion in 2007 down to 2% today, according to The Real Deal. REITs are seeking higher share prices by stepping up mergers and acquisitions, reported Bisnow. These are among today’s must reads for real estate investors.
Advisor Perspectives
MARCH 21, 2024
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 and has eliminated the yield curve control framework. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Economist Rini Sen expects the bulk of further tightening will likely come in 2025 as BoJ seeks to reach a sustainable 2% inflation target by end of fiscal year 2025.
Wealth Management
JUNE 27, 2023
Established in 2007, a private equity capital investment by Corsair Capital recently kicked off a new phase of growth for the firm.
Advisor Perspectives
JANUARY 4, 2024
Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007? The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve.
Validea
NOVEMBER 13, 2023
Between the 1970s and 2007, value investing—where investors identify stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value—reigned supreme for two generations of investors. Many investors hopped on his bandwagon and received outstanding returns for decades, until the financial crisis in 2007, the article relates.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 22, 2023
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 28, 2023
million Total Housing Completions in 2022 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 • Has Housing "Bottomed"? At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • New Home Sales at 616,000 Annual Rate in December; Previous 3 Months Revised Down Sharply • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December • 1.51
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 10, 2024
Job growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong. The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 3, 2023
I remember the exact moment in 2007 when I knew the financial industry was headed for a reckoning. There was no data point that tipped me off, no great insight about the housing market.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 15, 2023
Confirmed: The iPhone 15 is the most affordable iPhone since 2007 What the US got right that Europe did.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 30, 2023
The yield on 10-year Treasuries went above 5% last week for the first time since July 2007, when the first Transformers movie was topping the box office and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 14,000 for the first time in history.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 5, 2023
The Federal Reserve may be putting its hoped-for soft landing of the economy at risk by tacitly accepting a run-up in long-term interest rates to the highest levels since 2007.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 20, 2023
We bought our first home in late 2007. Our rate at the time for a 30 year fixed was something like 6.25% or 6.5%. It didn’t seem high at the time but then again we didn’t have 3% rates in the rearview mirror to compare it to.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 23, 2023
for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation. Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5%
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 11, 2023
Stock markets that have refused to buckle under the highest yields since 2007 face a new test. Third-quarter results will shine a light on how much those rates are already hitting profits — and what they’ll do to lofty equity valuations.
The Big Picture
MAY 13, 2023
He founded Wall Strip (sold to CBS in 2007), co-founded StockTwits (which pioneered the ‘cashtag’ e.g., $AAPL), and was the first investor in Robin Hood. So were cultural institutions, museums, universities, subways, buses, cars, and garages. ( He is the founder and CIO of Social Leverage , where he makes early-stage investments.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 3, 2023
from 2007 to 2022—a 16-year period covering the long value rout and its aftermath. With negligible incremental risk, a RAFI Global Index hypothetically outperformed a Cap-Weighted Global Index by 40 bps per annum and a Cap-Weighted Global Value Index by 2.2%
Advisor Perspectives
JANUARY 27, 2023
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 7, 2024
Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. In Q4 2023, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 73.4% - down from 73.9% in Q3, 2023.
Wealthfront
SEPTEMBER 18, 2023
This year, interest rates reached their highest level since 2007 and are expected to stay relatively high through 2024. This higher-rate economic environment brings excitement but also confusion. You may be asking, “with all of the compelling ways to earn more on my savings, are equities worth the risk?”
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 24, 2023
Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year Ended Streak, Months 2019 100 1990 48 2007 46 1979 45 1943 33 1986 33 2000 33 2023 1 32 1967 29 1995 25 1 Currrent Streak
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 6, 2023
We believe the US economy is late in the credit cycle as US Treasury bond yields move to highs not seen since 2007.
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