The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7.

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The Big Picture

MAY 12, 2023

The post-pandemic economy differs significantly from the 2010s. ( New research shows how narrow the field of American economics has become.( Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, accounting gor a 5.5% The Big Picture ) • Who’s Not Sweating the Debt Ceiling? That’s Not Great!

Economics 141

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

There is a rosy projection for the US economy. Meltdown of 2007-09 fostered less risky tactics; not as much debt. Economic Outlook: Rubber Bands on a Watermelon : With enough pressure, the watermelon *will* explode. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Bloomberg ). Americans may not have felt it : 2.9% Bloomberg ).

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Nationwide Financial

MAY 16, 2023

Kathy Bostjancic: Given the severity of the last two recessions (the Great Recession in 2007-08 and the COVID recession in 2020), it’s likely not surprising that many investors think the next downturn could be just as severe. KB: Inflation remains a key factor in our broader economic outlook. However, most recessions in the U.S.

Economics 52

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Truemind Capital

JANUARY 19, 2024

India is strongly intertwined with Global markets financially and economically. Thus what happens in the USA and other developed economies has a significant impact on the Indian economy as well. Whereas in reality, our investment returns are majorly affected by what happens globally.

Economy 52

Economy Investing Investments Economics 52

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

The Fed made a big shift in its projections and is now much more bullish on the economy. Expectations for a stronger economy also mean the Fed is projecting fewer rate cuts next year. Two: Fed members are buying that the economy is strong. That is a huge shift and an acknowledgement that the economy is strong.

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around.

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Ballast Advisors

JULY 19, 2023

As we reach the end of the second quarter of 2023, we want to provide you with an update on the markets and key developments that have occurred in the economy. Overall Economic Overview: The second quarter of 2023 has witnessed a mixed economic landscape characterized by a series of challenges and opportunities.

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Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 12, 2022

The previous bear market occurred in 2007-09, during the Global Financial Crisis. Of course, earnings and profits are dependent to a large extent on economic performance (although not for all companies and not all in the same manner.). People also still need electricity, gas, and phone service in an economic downturn.

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Zoe Financial

OCTOBER 9, 2023

to 4.79, which is a yield level we had not seen since 2007. Economic data we can point to this: September employment data came out and payroll gains came in at 336,000. Economic Snapsot: Average hourly earnings came in at 4.15 Long-term bonds try to give a proxy for inflation + real economic growth (nominal GDP growth).

Marketing 52

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Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. But this was not because the productive capacity of the economy expanded.

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The Irrelevant Investor

NOVEMBER 15, 2020

Matthew Klein wrote about the end of Moore's law and the effect it's having on the economy in Barron's this weekend. economy grew about 4.3% According to a new study from economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 1.4 economy during that period came from the tech sector.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices. October 7, 2022).

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Validea

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Even if the economy avoids a recession, the Fed is unlikely to pivot back to cutting rates, which could hurt stocks. equities are now the priciest they’ve been since 2007, entering a level the strategists called a “death zone.” The Morgan Stanley team isn’t the only one sounding the alarm; JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Economy 52

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. for the first time since 2007, while mortgage rates hit 8%–the highest level since mid-2000. Economic Strength, Housing Weakness The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week.

Marketing 90

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Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 13, 2022

Even if the economy created zero jobs over the next year, 2022 would be the 9 th best year for job creation since 1940. The highest it got to during the 2003–2007 expansion was 80.3%. When times are good and the economy is expanding, firms hire temps to ramp up quickly. Initial unemployment benefit claims are near record lows.

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Carson Wealth

JANUARY 22, 2024

For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, download our 2024 Market Outlook. That bear eventually ended in October 2022, and since then stocks have defied many experts, who continually (and incorrectly) touted a weakening economy, tapped-out consumer, and many other reasons to doubt the new bull market.

Marketing 97

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Validea

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Wall Streeters give a lot of credence to economic forecasts at the start of every year, as corporations project demand and craft their budgets and money managers plan out their strategies for the next year. While the pandemic obviously caused a massive impact, the following year was just as wrong, when economists were off by 1.9

Portfolio Management 59

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 27, 2023

There are certainly more questions than answers right now, and yes, the odds of a recession have increased as banks will tighten lending, which could lead to an economic slowdown. Still, economic data is improving. Recent sentiment polls show a high number of bears while worries about the economy and earnings continue to expand.

Marketing 52

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Investing Caffeine

MAY 2, 2022

Although I have noted some of the key headwinds the economy faces above, it is worth noting that current corporate profits remain at/near all-time record highs (see chart below) and the 3.6% As Albert Einstein stated, “In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”.

Electronics 59

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Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Notable in the release was the 26% contraction in the housing market, the sharpest decline since 2007. A Bloomberg Economics model puts the odds of a recession over the next year at 100%. Economic data include JOLTS job openings and PMI data on Tuesday, durable goods on Thursday, and the monthly payroll report on Friday.

Marketing 52

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Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

Myth 1: Credit Card Debt Is Out of Control We hear a lot about how credit card debt cracked $1 trillion for the first time ever and the only reason the economy is growing is because people are buying everything on credit cards. In fact, historically a higher trending 10-year yield amid an improving economy has led to strong stock gains.

Economics 144

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Validea

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Of course, getting that timing right is a challenge, but Arnott points to the Shiller price-to-earning ratios, which shows that equities are still expensive and the S&P 500, while trading below its recent peaks, is still well above the low it hit during the 2007-09 financial crisis.

Marketing 52

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The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 20, 2020

The chart below shows that the money supply has doubled since 2007, and while prices might be rising in certain areas of the economy like health care and education, nobody would argue that this has been an inflationary environment. A home builders' association in Kentucky published a wanted poster for Volcker.

Economics 52

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Validea

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

Of course, getting that timing right is a challenge, but Arnott points to the Shiller price-to-earning ratios, which shows that equities are still expensive and the S&P 500, while trading below its recent peaks, is still well above the low it hit during the 2007-09 financial crisis.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Investment Advisor 52

Nationwide Financial

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

Tightening global financial conditions is pressuring bond yields, with the 2-year Treasury yield at the highest level since 2007 and the yield curve at the most inverted level since 2000. The statement was little changed from July, though the Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) rose the median rate to 4.4% What to Watch.

Marketing 52

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Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2015

Late in an economic cycle, investors in corporate bonds tend to snap up securities that offer a comparatively high yield but understate the risks of default. From telecommunications companies in 2000, to homebuilders in 2007, to coal mining companies in 2014, recent history offers plenty of cautionary tales for high-yield investors.

Economics 40

Economics Economy Clients Investing 40

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 77

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Among the concerns breeding skepticism about the economy and the markets are on-again/off-again trade negotiations, disruption of supply chains, declines in manufacturing activity, and sluggish capital spending. economy that may restrain the country's ability to grow at rates considered normal over the last several decades.

Investing 52

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Among the concerns breeding skepticism about the economy and the markets are on-again/off-again trade negotiations, disruption of supply chains, declines in manufacturing activity, and sluggish capital spending. economy that may restrain the country's ability to grow at rates considered normal over the last several decades.

Investing 52

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The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 332

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 108

Economy Sales Economics Investing 108

Brown Advisory

DECEMBER 2, 2015

Weak commodity prices and flagging emerging market economies have dimmed the outlook for energy and metals companies, and are shaking up the high-yield bond market. Debt in well-managed companies positioned to weather an economic slump return nearly three times the 2.3% yield of the 10-year Treasury bond.

Clients 52

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. in November – but as I have been warning since 2007, we measure this incorrectly using a poor model of housing prices called “Owners Equivalent Rent.”

Economy 325

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Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. So if you’re under 40, some of this may feel unfamiliar.

Marketing 57

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James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

Marketing 52

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Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

The expected competitive forces don’t materialise, and we believe that superior economics can be maintained for a lot longer than our standard microeconomics mean-reversion frameworks would suggest. Behavioural economics has a lot to say about these cycles, we will come back to this another time. specialty insurer Hiscox.

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