Brown Advisory

JUNE 24, 2019

That metaphor is particularly fitting for economic and credit cycles. Investors in corporate credit are generally looking at the same risks as equity investors, and during times of economic or company-specific stress, value tends to shift “up” the capital structure—i.e., Test enterprise valuation. Test the worst-case scenario.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 24, 2019

That metaphor is particularly fitting for economic and credit cycles. Investors in corporate credit are generally looking at the same risks as equity investors, and during times of economic or company-specific stress, value tends to shift “up” the capital structure—i.e., Test enterprise valuation. Test the worst-case scenario.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2015

Late in an economic cycle, investors in corporate bonds tend to snap up securities that offer a comparatively high yield but understate the risks of default. From telecommunications companies in 2000, to homebuilders in 2007, to coal mining companies in 2014, recent history offers plenty of cautionary tales for high-yield investors.

Economics 40

Economics Economy Clients Investing 40

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

could fall victim to long-term economic stagnation, similar to the fate that befell Japan starting in the 1990s. Japan’s GDP had grown by an average of more than 5% per year from 1950 to 1989—a true post-War economic miracle. As important, however, is the contrast in how the two countries have dealt with financial or economic crises.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Assets Economics 52

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

could fall victim to long-term economic stagnation, similar to the fate that befell Japan starting in the 1990s. Investors who were active in the late 1980s will recall that asset prices in Japan reached extreme levels as money poured into the country from all over the world, propelled by extraordinary economic growth. was prevented.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Assets Economics 52

Brown Advisory

APRIL 1, 2015

Although we expressed some worry about the long-term effects of mounting deficits, we concluded that stocks and other assets were not in bubble territory and represented good value despite what we saw as a weak economic recovery. It’s remarkable how far the markets have come in the five years since then. Possible Signs. Then and Now.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Assets 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

Which has in turn triggered the more skittish stock investors to run for the exits and completely change their view of our economic future, flooding the financial news with red ink and scary headlines. Now that we’ve covered the background, we can get into some better news: This is all a normal, healthy part of the economic cycle.

Marketing 57

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investing 57

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 6, 2019

A better historical understanding of these events helps us take into account a wider range of possibilities as we consider potential market and economic outcomes in the future. housing in 2007) or a spike in oil prices (1973, 1980 and 1990)—conditions that are not present today. Additionally, while it is true that the U.S.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Management Clients 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 6, 2019

A better historical understanding of these events helps us take into account a wider range of possibilities as we consider potential market and economic outcomes in the future. housing in 2007) or a spike in oil prices (1973, 1980 and 1990)—conditions that are not present today. Additionally, while it is true that the U.S.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Management Clients 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

While these efforts are valuable – they may eventually lead to well-defined ESG factors that resonate with economic principles – it is easy to forget that they cannot prove whether "ESG investing" can be a source of market-independent returns, or alpha. Resource and Energy Economics 41:103-121. Journal of Financial Economics.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investing Investments Management 52

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

While these efforts are valuable – they may eventually lead to well-defined ESG factors that resonate with economic principles – it is easy to forget that they cannot prove whether "ESG investing" can be a source of market-independent returns, or alpha. Resource and Energy Economics 41:103-121. Journal of Financial Economics.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investing Investments Management 52

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

The emerging markets asset class outperformed all others in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009, while finishing second in 2004, 2006, and 2012. large cap stocks in 2003-2007 and underperformance in 2019-2023. I could pull out some socio-economic Jenga pieces that include the high valuation of the U.S. Sounds unstoppable, right?

Assets 59

Assets Investing Investments Marketing 59

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Since then, value has outperformed growth for the longest sustained period since 2003–2007. The monetary factor is the factor we are focused on, as the two periods of sustained value outperformance in the last 20 years (now, and 2003-2007) coincide with the last two periods when both market interest rates (measured by the 10-year U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

The initial optimism over a Fed pivot has shifted following strong economic data, elevated inflation, and hawkish Fed commentary, sending interest rates higher and valuations lower. News An economic release on Friday was a reminder of the current economy’s strength and the challenge the Fed continues to face in controlling inflation.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Retail Economics 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. And then I was having lunch with Jeremy in Boston. RITHOLTZ: Yes.

Banking 141

Banking Valuation Economy Investing 141

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

at year-end can largely explain the compression in valuation, especially for higher multiple equities, primarily during the first half of the year. Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. by year-end.

Clients 98

Clients Economy Economics Investing 98

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Outside of the pandemic, the rate of sales were close to sales rates in 2007 and 2008, when the economy was in the depths of a housing crisis [Figure 3]. Regional differences are profound.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

Brown Advisory

JUNE 12, 2017

Berkshire Hathaway In the 52 years since Buffett took control, Berkshire Hathaway has grown from a small, economically challenged New England textile company to one of the largest U.S. In the last 10 years, 2007 through 2016, Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price compounded at roughly 9.3%

Investing 52

Investing Investments Ethics Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 12, 2017

In the 52 years since Buffett took control, Berkshire Hathaway has grown from a small, economically challenged New England textile company to one of the largest U.S. In the last 10 years, 2007 through 2016, Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price compounded at roughly 9.3% Berkshire Hathaway.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Ethics Taxes 52

Bell Investment Advisors

MARCH 15, 2023

There’s maybe a similar valuation to what you might have seen in 2017, 2018, or 2019. Well, what’s that’s set us up for is actually, I haven’t seen the bond market look this good probably since about 2007 or so. The stock market is valued still historically high, but not nearly as high as it was.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Investing Investments 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 17, 2023

A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. And you do a lot of work with infinity [Barry Ritholtz] : 00:03:29 [Speaker Changed] And then economics, which is a little bit squishier. What made you add economics to your, to your graduate degree? What is that?

Investing 130

Investing Investments Clients Management 130

Brown Advisory

OCTOBER 18, 2019

We know that equity valuations in the U.S. CURRENT VALUATION PREMIUMS, S&P 500 INDEX Metric Most Recent Long-Term Average Premium vs. Average Timeframe Trailing P/E 19.4 CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index, 1/1/2007-8/30/2019 Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). 17% 3/31/1954- 9/30/2019 Price/Book Value 3.4

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Numbers 52

Brown Advisory

OCTOBER 18, 2019

We know that equity valuations in the U.S. CURRENT VALUATION PREMIUMS, S&P 500 INDEX. CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index, 1/1/2007-8/30/2019. In the current environment of elevated valuations and low interest rates, it may make sense to consider investment opportunities with low correlation to equities and fixed income.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Numbers 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 31, 2023

The best example I always love to give is that Amazon’s last private round was at a $60 million post money valuation. Post money valuations until the market has changed dramatically. So, so let’s talk a little bit about valuation. 00:09:39 [Speaker Changed] That’s unbelievable. 00:38:31 [Speaker Changed] Huh.

Management 152

Management Investing Investments Portfolio 152

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

SEIDES: John Yeah, I said back then, the bet started in 2007 and I say today, being in the market and investing in hedge funds is completely apples and oranges. This is the summer of 2007. RITHOLTZ: 2007. So back in 2007. SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns. SEIDES: Yeah.

Management 130

Management Investing Investments Government 130

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

You’ve probably heard some aspects of this from the various interviews I’ve done with Howard Marks talking about the distressed asset fund they set up in 2007. You joined in 2007. But, but fast forward to June of 2007, you know, oaktree in the distressed debt landscape is, is really, you know, second to none.

Banking 130

Banking Investing Investments Clients 130

Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2016

Instead, we’re looking 10, 20 or 30 years ahead—a long enough horizon to smooth out short-term fluctuations resulting from variables such as economic cycles, changes in interest rates and geopolitical events. Following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, some observers began referring to the “new normal.”

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 52

Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2016

Instead, we’re looking 10, 20 or 30 years ahead—a long enough horizon to smooth out short-term fluctuations resulting from variables such as economic cycles, changes in interest rates and geopolitical events. Following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, some observers began referring to the “new normal.”

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 52

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 17, 2015

Rational measures of valuation had taken a backseat to “mouse clicks and momentum,” as Robertson put it, and he had no stomach for more punishment. Druckenmiller "Druckenmiller understood the stock market better than the economists and understood economics better than the stock pickers." "In

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Recruitment Assets 52

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 14, 2022

MCCARTHY: I’d back up actually a little bit further in thinking about how did I get there, because I don’t think it was very obvious actually that I would come out of Yale with an ethics, politics and economics degree — RITHOLTZ: Perfect really, right? You could argue buying that in 2007 was the worst possible time.

Assets 152

Assets Investing Investments Portfolio 152

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And we’d sort of turn that into a valuation business. MILLER: Well actually I thought, leading up to the great financial crisis, I thought to myself, we’re going to be out of business within a couple of years because nobody wanted an independent valuation. What are the, you know, I’d literally have it in my handheld.

Sales 130

Sales Numbers Taxes Marketing 130

The Big Picture

APRIL 18, 2023

In the short run, there can be distortions in public market valuations as we saw in 2001 and we saw prior to that in 2007, and prior to that in 2000, in ‘99. Valuations go up and you saw it, of course, in the late ‘90s, in the tech sector. You see these things before they start to show up in the economic data.

Assets 152

Assets Investing Investments Valuation 152

The Big Picture

APRIL 11, 2023

 The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Aswath Damodaran: Valuations, Narratives & Academia , is below. You’re known as the dean of valuation. He said, oh, dean of valuation, it’s easier to say. So let’s start with the question, what led you to focus on valuation? RITHOLTZ: Right. And I said, why?

Valuation 286

Valuation Education Government Numbers 286

The Big Picture

MARCH 12, 2024

So in this, in this context of, of a mortgage now being clear to everyone that this default risk is present, it’s real, and it’s hard to price because following the borrower’s economic profile, there, there are defaults that are related to just life events, but there’s also defaults related to a macroeconomic event.

Banking 141

Banking Investing Investments Marketing 141

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

You get an economics PhD from California, Berkeley in 82, and around the same time you become an economist at the Federal Reserve Board from 81 to 83. Well, I had about I seven months of calm and then chaos started in August of 2007. Let, let’s talk a little bit about your background. Tell, tell us a little bit about that role.

Economy 141

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 141

David Nelson

MAY 8, 2023

Patience Investors are generally not a patient breed but the overriding challenge for the broad market is the following: Bloomberg Data Stocks don’t live in a vacuum and most valuation models start with the risk-free rate which is now the highest since 2007. I’m not sure that’s the right way to put it.

Banking 52

Banking Valuation Economy Insurance 52