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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

The explanatory stories that people find compelling are simple; are concrete rather than abstract; assign a larger role to talent, stupidity, and intentions than to luck; and focus on a few striking events that happened rather than on the countless events that failed to happen. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

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RIP Financial Conferences

The Big Picture

It didn’t take much to terminate the almost dead : Decades of the same people saying the same things in the same hotel ballrooms and conference centers were simply too much of a bad thing. Stop throwing us into giant windowless locations. Stop shoveling tedious panels forecasting the future at us. Challenge us.

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Future Proof 2023

The Big Picture

We took people’s ideas to heart, and I am even more excited about this year’s event. Come join us on September 10th through 13th in Huntington Beach, California. You will meet great people, learn a lot about the direction of our industry, and have a lot of fun to boot. Come join us in September!

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Tuesday links: raw materials for LLMs

Abnormal Returns

(morningstar.com) Why people make seemingly bad financial decisions. sherwood.news) Amazon ($AMZN) has installed more than 17,000 chargers at about 120 warehouses around the US. ofdollarsanddata.com) Companies Meta ($META) never wants to be at the mercy of Apple ($AAPL). stratechery.com) Starbucks ($SBUX) has some $2.2

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How a Physics Whiz Made a Fortune Betting on Nature’s Catastrophes : John Seo used his scientific knowledge to develop a winning formula for trading catastrophe bonds — a market that’s booming thanks to climate change and inflation.

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Shift Your Perspective

The Big Picture

After yesterday’s discussion on the uncertainty monster , a friend who “loves perspective changers” reached out with a challenge: “Most people rarely question their own basic ideas,” he said, He challenged me to find 10 concepts to do just that. Survivorship bias rules the world around us. Paying up does not. What’s Different? :

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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 1 This is significant for two reasons: First, it is a full 5 million more people working today than in January 2020, just before the pandemic struck. Secondly, it is useful to provide context to help avoid denominator blindness.

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