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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 258
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Americonned

The Big Picture

To put it in numbers: Their share has gone from about 23% to about 32%. Previously : America’s Corporate Welfare Queens (November 13, 2013) Minimum Wage Increases Do Not Destroy Jobs (January 24, 2019) Generational Reset of Minimum Wage (November 30, 2021) Wages in America The post Americonned appeared first on The Big Picture.

Numbers 328
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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 325
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NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Drops to 10-Year Low

Advisor Perspectives

The headline number for April dropped to its lowest level since January 2013, coming in at 89.0, from the previous month and below the Investing.com forecast of 89.6. April's reading remains below the series average of 98.2 for the 16th consecutive month. The index is at the 5th percentile in this series.

Numbers 132
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Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top

The Big Picture

I suspect most people don’t have any idea about these numbers, and imagine the various starts to be closer together in dollar amounts than they actually are. The top 0.01% of US households had at least $111 million in net worth in 2012, compared to $4 million for the 1 %.

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2% Inflation Target is Silly

The Big Picture

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The case for 4% inflation , Laurence Ball, VoxEU/CEPR 24 May 2013 3. Peasants: We have found a witch! (A a witch!)

Economy 246
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AAR: January Rail Carloads Increased and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

On the discouraging side, January 2023 was the worst January for intermodal since 2013 , with originations down 8.1% Intermodal volume averaged 229,982 units per week in January 2023, the fewest for January since 2013. January 2022 was the worst January for total carloads in our records that begin in 1988. from last year. railroads.

Retail 94