article thumbnail

Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 112
article thumbnail

Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 17 Percent in 2023; 42% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 128
article thumbnail

Update: The Inland Empire

Calculated Risk

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be. And sure enough, the economies of housing dependent areas like the Inland Empire were devastated during the housing bust.

Economy 134
article thumbnail

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Almanac Trader ) • This Time Really Is Different for the Economy. We use the term “Octoberphobia” to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout. Just Look at the Job Market’s Confounding Strength.

Economics 245
article thumbnail

10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Ask people what they’ve heard about the economy, and they’ll tell you it’s bad. Americans remain deeply pessimistic about the economy: A large percentage mistakenly think we’re in a recession or will be hit by one this year. This year looks worse. ( Stay-At-Home Macro ) see also Stop the gloom and doom.

article thumbnail

10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy

The Big Picture

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc., 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1.

Investing 344