Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 31, 2024

Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Excerpt: Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill Single-family and multi-family serious delinquencies increased in November.

162

162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2025

However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph below) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006. Speculative bubbles can go on and on.

Marketing 191

Marketing Marketing 191

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

162

162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2025

In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak.

Numbers 191

Numbers 191

The Big Picture

APRIL 13, 2023

They have seen a significant uptick in overall participation rate, which has increased from 62% in 2006 to 82% in 2021. As of 2021, Generation Z’s participation rate was more than twice as high as similarly aged employees in 2006. Eligible employees deferred nearly 40% more in 2021 than in 2006.

Retirement 276

Retirement Planning 276

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

147

147

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for April (red). There was more strength, in general, in demand for fullsize and luxury-segment trucks than for more affordable vehicles, including cars and small and midsize CUVs and SUVs. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in April (17.27

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red). Regardless of any coming impacts from tariffs, March's booming results will cause lower volume in the second quarter due to the additional drain to dealer inventory that, based on industry norms, was already lean prior to the month.

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red). Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 357

Sales 357

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2025

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for December (red). Click on graph for larger image. Sales in December (16.80 million SAAR) were up 1.8% from November, and up 5.5% from December 2023. Sales in December were above the consensus forecast.

Sales 182

Sales Retail Government 182

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red). The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 million SAAR in May 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.5% from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% from May 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 360

Sales Marketing Marketing 360

The Big Picture

JULY 17, 2022

Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p). Source: Visual Capitalist. I never know what to make of these grand extrapolations but submitted for your approval… The post Coming Shift in Global Economic Power? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economics 287

Economics 287

The Big Picture

APRIL 4, 2025

Before joining General Atlantic in 2012, Martn was Co-Founder and CFO of Submarino.com, a leading Brazilian online retailer that went public on the Bovespa and was sold to Lojas Americanas in 2006. He was recently appointed to the Harvard Management Company Board.

Asset Allocation 146

Asset Allocation Wealth Management Assets Retail 146

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a Non-business bankruptcy filings fell 6.3 percent, to 374,240, compared with 399,269 in the previous year. Click on graph for larger image.

345

345

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

In the February Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 79% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak.

Numbers 147

Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak.

Numbers 162

Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

JUNE 3, 2025

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for April (red). That dynamic likely continues not just in June, but into Q3, as most automakers do not currently appear anxious to raise production levels enough to fully replace declining stock levels. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in May (15.65

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 4, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for Augus (red). Calendar-year 2024 sales through August totaled 10.5 million units, 2.2% above like-2023’s 10.3 Click on graph for larger image. Sales in August (15.13 million SAAR) were down 4.3% from July, and down 1.1% from August 2023. million.

Sales 287

Sales 287

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Here is the expanded series from the MBA of mortgage credit availability that includes the bubble years (2004 - 2006). Look at that huge increase in mortgage credit availability back in the 2004 - 2006 period (remember “fog a mirror, get a loan”, NINJA loans: No Income, No Job or Assets?).

Sales 260

Sales Assets 260

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red). Hard to say exactly how much but sales could have been slightly stronger in September if not for some lost inventory caused by production cuts related to plant shutdowns from UAW strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

Sales 338

Sales Marketing Marketing 338

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

The higher cost of homeownership has clearly eroded affordability, as inflation-adjusted monthly mortgage expenses are now even higher than they were at their former peak in 2006.” emphasis added

Marketing 362

Marketing Marketing 362

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006. Job growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Cerberus Capital Management paid $350 million in 2006 for struggling Albertsons stores as a real estate play. In the years since, the private equity firm has added to its stake, bulked up through acquisitions and (repeatedly) tried to part with the U.S.

Management 250

Management 250

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

In the March Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak.

Numbers 147

Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote : As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be.

Economy 339

Economy Numbers 339

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 331

Economy 331

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 66% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

246

246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 15% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

246

246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

In the May Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 18 years since the bubble peak.

297

297

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Note: This table includes both annual change and Q4 over the previous Q4 (two slightly different measures). For 2024, I used a 2.6% growth rate Q4 over Q4. this gives 2.8% real annual growth). Real GDP Growth Year Annual GDP Q4 / Q4 2005 3.5% 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2009 -2.6% 2020 -2.2% -1.0% 2024 1 2.8% 1 2024 estimate based on 2.8%

Economy 173

Economy Economics Sales Investing 173

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

In Q2 2022, mortgage debt increased $263 billion, the most since 2006. Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Strong in Q2 Excerpt: Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1

Sales 277

Sales Accounting 277

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006.In However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

246

246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 64% above the bubble peak in 2006. below the recent peak in early 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been over 16 years since the bubble peak.

237

237

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2023

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6%

292

292

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph below) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006. Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. Speculative bubbles can go on and on.

Marketing 291

Marketing Marketing 291

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

In the July Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 74% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak.

Numbers 278

Numbers 278

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363