The Big Picture

OCTOBER 13, 2023

November 3, 2006) Tracking NAR Spin (April 23rd, 2008) Realtors Get Real (March 2007) Pending Home Sales Index, NAR Housing Market “Bottoms” (January 2008) How Counter-Productive is Realtor Association Spin?

Numbers 293

Numbers Sales Management Marketing 293

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for March (red). The trend was largely true over the entire first quarter, as deliveries of more affordable vehicles led the three-month period to a 5.1% year-over-year gain. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in March (15.49 from March 2023.

Sales 91

Sales Marketing Marketing 91

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 131

Economy 131

oXYGen Financial

APRIL 30, 2023

Named after the Senator of Delaware William Roth, the Roth IRA was created in 1998 and its employer plan counterpart the Roth 401k was created in 2006. How a Roth accounts works: ]]

Retirement 105

Retirement Accounting Taxes Planning 105

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2024

In the January Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 71% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak.

105

105

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for February (red). The combined December-February seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.7 million units is more indicative of current demand, despite the gyrations of the past three months. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in February (15.81

Sales 85

Sales Marketing Marketing 85

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red). The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 million SAAR in May 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.5% from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% from May 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 144

Sales Marketing Marketing 144

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red). Hard to say exactly how much but sales could have been slightly stronger in September if not for some lost inventory caused by production cuts related to plant shutdowns from UAW strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

Sales 134

Sales Marketing Marketing 134

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Here is the expanded series from the MBA of mortgage credit availability that includes the bubble years (2004 - 2006). Look at that huge increase in mortgage credit availability back in the 2004 - 2006 period (remember “fog a mirror, get a loan”, NINJA loans: No Income, No Job or Assets?).

Sales 102

Sales Assets 102

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.

Management 176

Management Medical Portfolio Management Economics 176

The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

That hasn’t happened since 2006. I heard Cousin Sal say the previous 2,200 times a team was up that much with that little time remaining, they won. Wild stuff. The Dolphins came back after being down 21 points going into the fourth quarter. Tua Tagovaila had six touchdowns. The Lions, which have been one of the w.

123

123

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red). Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 143

Sales 143

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a Non-business bankruptcy filings fell 6.3 percent, to 374,240, compared with 399,269 in the previous year. Click on graph for larger image.

138

138

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph below) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006. Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. Speculative bubbles can go on and on.

Marketing 114

Marketing Marketing 114

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for January (red). Click on graph for larger image. Sales in January (15.0 million SAAR) were down 5.2% from December, and down 0.7% from January 2023. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales 87

Sales Marketing Marketing 87

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 15% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: [link] Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak.

105

105

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 66% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

One victim said they “felt a bit violated really.” ( 404 Media ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016.

Economics 245

Economics Accounting Banking Media 245

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 27, 2024

One method introduced by Jonathan Guyton and William Klinger in 2006 is the "guardrails" framework.

Retirement 183

Retirement Portfolio Clients Financial Advisor 183

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 64% above the bubble peak in 2006. below the recent peak in early 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been over 16 years since the bubble peak.

95

95

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2023

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6%

114

114

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2024

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for December (red). While CUVs accounted for over half the market for the second time ever, vehicles impacted by the strikes were largely behind weakness in pickups, SUVs and vans. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in December were up 3.3%

Sales 89

Sales Accounting Marketing Marketing 89

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. Speculative bubbles can go on and on.

Economics 113

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 113

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

. • In the absence of any meaningful private-labeled securities market, the rise in FHA delinquencies is worth watching, as FHA and VA loans can be early indicators of broader mortgage performance trends • While low credit score lending hit a record low, by count, in 2023, 90% below the years leading up to the great financial crisis, FHA and VA products (..)

Marketing 119

Marketing Marketing Accounting Banking 119

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 19, 2023

It was the highest level since the summer of 2006. Last week Wednesday two year treasury yields closed the day at 5.05%. That’s a pretty juicy yield for short-term government bonds. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. Look at the plunge in rates since the banking crisis took hold late last week: It looks like a stock market crash.

Government 82

Government Banking Marketing Marketing 82

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak in early 2006.In However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

98

98

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Cerberus Capital Management paid $350 million in 2006 for struggling Albertsons stores as a real estate play. In the years since, the private equity firm has added to its stake, bulked up through acquisitions and (repeatedly) tried to part with the U.S.

Management 78

Management 78

MarketWatch

MARCH 24, 2023

Known for Moore’s Law — or the idea that the number of transistors in a chip will roughly double every two years — Moore served a variety of executive roles at the chip maker, and retired from the company in 2006. In 2000, he and his wife established the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in 2000.

Retirement 98

Retirement Numbers Marketing Marketing 98

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.

52

52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2023

In the September Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 69% above the bubble peak in 2006. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.9%

114

114

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 13, 2023

Not that different from the tulip mania (see the picture below), the dot-com boom, or the house flippers and mortgage boom of 2006-2008 (see the Big Short for similar stories of excess). Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.

Numbers 313

Numbers Government Assets Management 313

Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Let’s look at how it unfolded, from 2006 to the day when Tata secured its victory. May 18, 2006: The West Bengal government, headed by Buddhadeb Bhattacharya allocated 1,000 acres of land in Singur to Tata Motors for manufacturing its affordable Nano car on a 99-year lease. What actually led to this legal battle?

Government 59

Government Manufacturing Investing Investments 59

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for March (red). Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.82 million SAAR in March 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), essentially unchanged from the February sales rate, and up 9.3% from March 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 98

Sales 98

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 4, 2023

Washington Post ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.

Economics 261

Economics Banking Government Investing 261

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

In Q2 2022, mortgage debt increased $263 billion, the most since 2006. Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Strong in Q2 Excerpt: Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1

Sales 109

Sales Accounting 109