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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 286
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Market Commentary: Checking In on Market Fundamentals

Carson Wealth

economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Pockets of attractive valuations exist despite above-average valuations in some high-profile areas of the market. economy, and the job market is leading the way. Payroll growth picked up in recent months.

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Tuesday links: a healthy accounting system

Abnormal Returns

Markets How major asset classes performed in October 2020. capitalspectator.com) Don't be surprised to see the stock market rally before the economy bottoms out. every.to) Q3 saw big drops in startup valuations. klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy The Fed is most hurting the middle class through rising rates.

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Wednesday links: late strategizing

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market valuations are a lot more attractive than they were a year ago. interest rates since 2020. finance.yahoo.com) Economy Auto loan delinquencies are on the rise. blog.validea.com) Visualizing U.S. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy The hardest part of investing is holding through tough times.

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Is Big Tech’s dominance over?

Nationwide Financial

These recurring shifts in the composition of the benchmark stock Index can offer insight into how different factors, such as cyclicality, long-term growth potential, and valuation, may impact stock performance in the future. The outsized influence of tech company earnings on the S&P 500 is important to understand.

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Round Trip

The Big Picture

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP? Too rapid rate increases? –

Economics 246
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Market Commentary: Carson Investment Research Looks at the Year Ahead

Carson Wealth

We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye. We continue to favor the U.S.,