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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020.

Economy 290
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CB Leading Economic Index: Fragile Outlook for U.S. Economy

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in March to its lowest level since May 2020. The index fell 0.3% from last month to 102.4. Overall, the LEI continues to signal a fragile outlook for the U.S.

Economy 64
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 114
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 136
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 145
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 137
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 140