Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

232

232

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

268

268

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.5% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Inventory will pass 2020 levels in the next two weeks, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. Inventory was up 32.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 33.4%), and down 16.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%).

281

281

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

277

277

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. in February 2020. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. by 2033 due to demographics.

Economics 290

Economics Economy Sales Commission 290

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 309

Sales Investments Investing Economy 309

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2025

The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored. The homeownership rate of 65.1 in Q1, from 65.7%

Numbers 240

Numbers Media Sales 240

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2025

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February. Services less rent of shelter was up 3.3% YoY in March, down from 3.8% YoY in February.

Food 272

Food 272

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in December to 7.60 million from 8.12 million in November.

Numbers 269

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 269

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Services less rent of shelter was up 4.5% YoY in October, up from 4.4% YoY in September. Durables were at -2.5% YoY as of October 2024, up from -2.9% YoY in September.

Food 311

Food Accounting 311

Calculated Risk

JUNE 3, 2025

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings increased in April to 7.39 million from 7.20 million in March.

Numbers 251

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 251

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.9% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%).

Retail 279

Retail Numbers Economics Sales 279

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.8 percent , a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (19722024) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization.

Manufacturing 179

Manufacturing 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 12, 2025

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Services less rent of shelter was up 3.8% YoY in February, down from 3.9% YoY in January. Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of February 2025, unchanged from -1.2% YoY in January.

Food 251

Food 251

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.5% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 15, 2025

Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in April, experiencing its largest monthly decline in five years. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.5% month-over-month after a flat reading in March. This was lower than the expected 0.2%

88

88

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2025

But hard means challenging, difficult, and requires work it does not mean impossible. Being the next Warren Buffett? Thats all but impossible. Be like you. Previously : You Are Not Jim Simons Neither am I.

Investments 296

Investments Investing Portfolio Planning 296

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Note: In 2020, prices increased late into the year and peaked in October, but prices peaked in June for all the other years. Change in Median House Price from January to June 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 January to June 13.7% The NAR reported the median price was $396,900 in January 2025, down 7.0% from $426,900 in June 2024.

Sales 162

Sales 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2024

months in August 2020. The months of supply decreased in November to 8.9 months from 9.2 months in October. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 264

Sales 264

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in February to 7.57 million from 7.76 million in January.

Numbers 229

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 229

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

months in August 2020. The months of supply increased in January to 9.0 months from 8.0 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 221

Sales 221

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

from 385 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 10.6% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ? Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5%

363

363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

from 339 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 14.3% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅ 4. Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory decreased last week. from 468 thousand.

361

361

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

from 375 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 12.9% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ? Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Altos reports inventory is down 0.8% week-over-week and down 2.3%

360

360

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

MARCH 31, 2025

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2024.

Distribution 162

Distribution 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization stepped down to 77.8 percent , a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (19722024) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.8% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

For the 2020 calendar year, the fund gained 153%; from the March 2020 COVID lows to its peak 11 months later, ARKKs returns were an eye-popping 359%. Most ARKK ETF holders got in near the 2020 top after its surge. Woods was lauded with recognitionand huge inflows. In 2023, he tweeted a list of overlooked facts.

Investing 267

Investing Investments Accounting Startup 267

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red).

Sales 360

Sales Marketing Marketing 360

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2023

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Peak Month June June Oct June June December -7.0% -3.8% -0.7% -2.2% -11.3% N/A In 2020, prices increased late into the year and only decline slightly seasonally (the start of the pandemic buying boom), and in 2021, median prices only declined about 3% from peak to bottom. January -8.9% -6.7% -1.2% -3.4%

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2025

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in March to 7.19 million from 7.48 million in February.

Numbers 194

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 194

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (19722024) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147