Nationwide Financial

APRIL 17, 2023

March’s cooler CPI data provided further evidence that price pressures are fading in many pockets of the economy. April 20: Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) LEI points to elevated recession risk The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to retreat again in March, marking the twelfth straight month of decline.

Economics 98

Economics Retail Economy Sales 98

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. (nytimes.com) How to get free online access to the updated version of "Poor Charlie's Almanack."

Financial Advising 248

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 248

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Let’s look at the scorecard: Bitcoin – it boomed in 2020 well in advance of the big inflation spike in 2021 & 2022 and weirdly busted as inflation reared its ugly head. Gold & Commodities – They largely did the same thing except they boomed in early 2020 and meandered sideways since.

Economy 77

Economy Retail Government Banking 77

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22.

Economy 321

Economy Economics Portfolio Media 321

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

Economics 332

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 332

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 91

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 91

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

March 3: ISM Services ISM services expected to fall, but remain in expansion territory The service sector grew in January following the first contraction reading in December since May 2020. Under normal circumstances, January’s spending would be celebrated as a sign of robust consumer activity and continued economic expansion.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. Analysis: Job growth still solid Nonfarm payroll growth continued to moderate in March, slowing to 236,000 — a still-solid number, but the weakest monthly growth since December 2020.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.1 1 Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Business Cycle Dating.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Retail Tax Planning 52

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The fall in output was the solid overall and the second-sharpest since May 2020. ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM.

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 6, 2023

Other economic data showed a surprising jump in housing market activity and jobless claims remained very low, while core durable goods orders and shipments when adjusted for inflation were softish. However, our forecast still represents a solid increase as labor demand remains vibrant, especially in the services side of the economy.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Economy 52

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The resulting impact on CRE land and liabilities is a risk factor for the banking sector, and potentially a threat to the broader economic system. In the pre-2020 seller’s market, building owners found ways to make nearly every square foot of CRE property profitable. So far, these have achieved only mixed success.

Retail 183

Retail Economics Distribution Economy 183

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy.

Banking 141

Banking Economics Retail Economy 141

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction.

Manufacturing 337

Manufacturing Economy Economics Portfolio 337

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 350

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 350

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 321

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 321

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2023

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 286

Valuation Advertising Economy Food 286

Carson Wealth

APRIL 29, 2024

The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy The economy grew 1.6% Excluding these categories provides a much clearer picture of actual spending and production in the economy, i.e., final demand after adjusting for inflation. After adjusting for inflation, the economy is almost 1% larger than the CBO projected.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Validea

MAY 5, 2023

With valuations still high, the threat of a recession still looms over the economy, ushering in a prolonged period of low returns across the market, from stocks and real estate to corporate profits, as well as elevated inflation and unemployment rates. But for long-term prosperity in the U.S.

Economics 52

Economics Government Economy Banking 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? 2020 threw a wrench in everything. Things are very weird right now.

License 278

License Economics Banking Economy 278

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 Nominal GDP is plus 7.8%

Government 286

Government Economy Economics Marketing 286

Mauldin Economics

JUNE 11, 2021

This may be an economically significant problem soon. But even if the virus disappears, we are going to spend years repairing the economic damage already done… and more may be coming. Source: CDC But starting in March 2020, COVID-19 generated excess deaths every week for almost an entire year. The economy will, too.

Economy 52

Economy Healthcare Medical Economics 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

December 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the second consecutive month following a 29-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 51.4%, up from 48.4% percent , 0.6

Manufacturing 40

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 40

MarketWatch

APRIL 4, 2023

economy could be about to tip into a recession, following Tuesday’s data which revealed the red-hot labor market is finally loosening up. That occurred as the 2-year Treasury yield experienced its biggest-monthly plunge since January 2008, and the 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y had its largest monthly drop since March 2020. in New York. “It

Economy 76

Economy Marketing Marketing Banking 76

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. Revenues , too).

Economics 258

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 258

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The strength of the global economy is a big question this week and next as industrials and technology companies gear up to report earnings. With greater exposure to international markets, their performance will be a good guidepost for how the global economy is doing compared to the U.S.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 105

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Historical impact of pandemics on the economy Historically, health pandemics have caused significant shocks to the U.S. Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. economy with effects that could linger for years.

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2023

CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill. CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill.

Risk Management 281

Risk Management Manufacturing Management Government 281

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2024

April 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April after one month of expansion following 16 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 48.6%, up from 47.4% percent , 2.3

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2020 Pandemic Panic ?!? ( 1987 Crash 3.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Nationwide Financial

MAY 16, 2023

Kathy Bostjancic: Given the severity of the last two recessions (the Great Recession in 2007-08 and the COVID recession in 2020), it’s likely not surprising that many investors think the next downturn could be just as severe. KB: Inflation remains a key factor in our broader economic outlook. However, most recessions in the U.S.

Economics 52

Economics Retirement Clients Retirement Planning 52

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI ® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percentage points lower than the 50.2

Manufacturing 222

Manufacturing Business Planning Management Economy 222