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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. This was a money-losing set of narratives. 2024: It’s a bubble!

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Podcast links: the case for value

Abnormal Returns

semafor.com) If Google Podcasts worked, why did Alphabet ($GOOGL) kill it? content will break the internet as we know it' (nytimes.com) Ezra Klein talks AI with Ethan Mollick author of “Co-Intelligence: Living and Working With A.I.” (ritholtz.com) AI Ezra Klein talks with Nilay Patel about how 'A.I.

Economy 223
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Wednesday links: the end of an era

Abnormal Returns

(ft.com) Charlie Munger Charlie Munger taught us how to think, not just about investing. morningstar.com) Charlie Munger, "I wish everything else in America was working as well as Costco does. Think what a blessing that would be for us all." wsj.com) Things that are conspiring to make work better. economist.com)

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

New York Times ) • How creators became an economic juggernaut and the new American Dream : Millions have ditched traditional career paths to work as online creators and content-makers, using their computers and phones to amass followers and build businesses whose influence now rivals the biggest names in entertainment, news and politics.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning reads: • How to Tweak Your Investments for a More Normal Market : Convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA; Higher interest rates means cash gets a respectable yield; Revisit concentrated positions; consider adding international stocks; buy longer-dated Treasuries. economy. ( WSJ ) • No, Really.

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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2

Economy 290
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Is 50% the New (Metro) RTO?

The Big Picture

New York City, the biggest US metro center, is one of the laggards with an office occupancy rate of 46%. Hybrid work models are now well-established. It just might be… Previously : Of Course WFH is “Really Working” (March 29, 2023) WFH vs RTO (February 16, 2023) Why Aren’t There Enough Workers?

Numbers 311