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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative. GDP) continues to expand.

Economics 171
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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing.

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Market Commentary: Carson Investment Research Looks at the Year Ahead

Carson Wealth

We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye. We continue to favor the U.S.,

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Weekly Economic Insight – February 27, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

FOMC Says Inflation Is Still Too High Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week. However, members diverged on the economy, with some members finding the risk of recession elevated.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year : Cambell Harvey’s work showed link between curve inversion and growth Strong labor demand, risk avoidance support US economy now. Bloomberg ). The index is now up 8.9% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03

Economy 161
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Market Commentary: Earnings Season Flouts Calendar Effects

Carson Wealth

We Aren’t Alone Anymore A year ago, we told anyone who would listen that the economy would likely avoid a recession and stocks were going to have a great year. Since avoiding a recession is normal, falling concern about the economy isn’t contrarian in itself, but we do lose some extra fuel from bearish views unwinding.

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Markets surge despite continued uncertainty

Nationwide Financial

This either sets the stage for upward revisions as pessimism eases or suggests the S&P 500 has gotten ahead of itself, with a valuation of 18x forward earnings. Pessimists argue about still elevated inflation, tightening financial conditions, the risk to earnings estimates, and rising valuations. Consumer spending was up 0.2%

Marketing 105