Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 110

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 110

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in January.

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 52

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

And now the world’s 2nd largest economy is experiencing a fall after the covid lockdown recovery. 2023 was supposed to be China’s economic comeback year. It is also not shocking that China is reducing the release of lots of public economic data. And this is not the first time China’s economy has run into trouble.

Economy 72

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investing 72

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.1 The PMI® was at 47.1% in March, up from 46.3%

Manufacturing 97

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 97

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 21, 2024

humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality. npr.org) Economy Why wealth inequality is growing. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. theatlantic.com) How success is changing Novo Nordisk ($NVO).

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Taxes Communication Manufacturing 242

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in December.

Manufacturing 46

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 46

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

ft.com) Economy Q4 GDP is tracking at 2%. econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. tker.co) On the divergence between consumer sentiment and the economy. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Economic activity continues to shift toward these four Sunbelt cities. npr.org)

Financial Advising 217

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 217

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent , 1.2 The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 (Posted with permission).

Manufacturing 102

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 102

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

The latest batch of economic data continue to signal that a recession is on the horizon — we still foresee a downturn unfolding in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) posted its 12th straight monthly decline, falling to its lowest level since November 2020. from a year ago. jump in February.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Food 52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 in October.

Manufacturing 49

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 49

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 217

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 217

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 in September.

Manufacturing 51

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 51

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent , 0.9 Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a seventh month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.

Manufacturing 66

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 66

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

March 1: ISM Manufacturing ISM manufacturing stays in contraction The ISM manufacturing index is expected to see a slight uptick in February but should remain in contractionary territory. Under normal circumstances, January’s spending would be celebrated as a sign of robust consumer activity and continued economic expansion.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

(entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago.

Financial Advising 178

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 178

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.6% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.6% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.6 (Posted with permission). Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 52

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 52.8%

Manufacturing 75

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 75

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Manufacturing activity was mixed, although contacts across multiple Districts noted an improving outlook for the sector. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth.

Economics 58

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 58

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9 The PMI® was at 46.9% in May, down from 47.1%

Manufacturing 62

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 62

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

The ISM manufacturing and services surveys both fell, with manufacturing falling further into contraction and services nearing contraction. The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. What we’re watching this week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

MarketWatch

APRIL 4, 2023

stock indexes fell on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 both snapping a 4-session win streak, as economic data showed more signs of a sputtering U.S. Investors were eyeing less robust economic data out Tuesday. Investors were eyeing less robust economic data out Tuesday. The number of U.S.

Economy 75

Economy Manufacturing Economics Numbers 75

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 21, 2024

apparel manufacturers are facing new competitive pressure. theatlantic.com) Economy Americans are pretty happy with their own finances. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Policy Noah Smith, "U.S. industrial policy is running into at least three big sets of problems." noahpinion.blog) U.S.

Financial Advising 169

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 169

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 46.3%

Manufacturing 59

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 59

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 7, 2023

coindesk.com) Companies How Apple ($AAPL) saves money on new chips manufactured by Taiwan Semi ($TSM). wsj.com) Economy Tyler Cowen, "It’s important to resist the temptation to think of economic expansions in moral terms." Crypto PayPal ($PYPL) has launched its own stablecoin. second quarter results.

Financial Advising 216

Financial Advising Manufacturing Media Economy 216

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

finance.yahoo.com) Economy The ISM Manufacturing index fell for the 12th straight month. advisorperspectives.com) Americans aren't used to economic volatility. (nytimes.com) A new hedge fund is set to launch with a unique structure: an attached news organization attached. on.ft.com) Two Sigma is spinning off its impact arm.

Financial Advising 157

Financial Advising Retail Manufacturing Media 157

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 46.4%

Manufacturing 40

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 40

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 (Posted with permission). in January.

Manufacturing 54

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 54

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 19, 2023

rollingstone.com) Ammunition manufactured in a federal facility has found its way into the hands of mass shooters. wsj.com) Economy The hard part of disinflation is done. apricitas.io) The economic schedule for the coming holiday-shortened week. nytimes.com) AR-15s are designed to kill human beings. largely unchecked.

Financial Advising 236

Financial Advising Commission Manufacturing Media 236

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

You can see why the NBER does not rely on GDP (pink line) alone; GDP was slightly negative, while Manufacturing and Trade Sales were more negative. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk.

Manufacturing 316

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 316

The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

Manufacturing firms? This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. That was supposed to be a headwind to the US economy and inflationary pressures. And P&G does not appear to have found it yet. Pushing price. Services firms? Pushing price.

Economy 321

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 321

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% Since then, the economy has accelerated. annualized pace over the last three months.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Nationwide Financial

MAY 30, 2023

2) June 1: ISM Manufacturing Further contraction in the manufacturing sector The ISM manufacturing index should show continued contraction in the manufacturing sector as businesses reduce plans for future investment amid falling sales. This would be highly disruptive for the economy and financial markets.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Economy Financial Market 52

MarketWatch

JUNE 23, 2023

manufacturing-sector data and a spate of European central bank interest-rate hikes from Thursday. The Treasury market is telling us there’s trouble ahead of us on the economic front. It has a lag time of six to 12 months or beyond, and the economy can take a while to make big turns. If the global economy falls, the U.S.

Economy 75

Economy Marketing Marketing Banking 75

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.2 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 50.2%

Manufacturing 46

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 46

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 6, 2023

Other economic data showed a surprising jump in housing market activity and jobless claims remained very low, while core durable goods orders and shipments when adjusted for inflation were softish. However, our forecast still represents a solid increase as labor demand remains vibrant, especially in the services side of the economy.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Economy 52