Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline.

Economics 101

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DECEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent , 1.2 The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 (Posted with permission).

Manufacturing 104

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FEBRUARY 1, 2024

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in December.

Manufacturing 49

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Abnormal Returns

APRIL 8, 2024

marketwatch.com) How India could help drive global economic growth. bonddad.blogspot.com) Where the manufacturing economy stands. (on.ft.com) European companies are coming around to stock buybacks. bloomberg.com) Economy The employment economy is humming along. econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: elder finances.

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NOVEMBER 29, 2023

On balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report , with four Districts reporting modest growth, two indicating conditions were flat to slightly down, and six noting slight declines in activity. Manufacturing activity was mixed, and manufacturers' outlooks weakened. Travel and tourism activity was generally healthy.

Economics 64

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JULY 3, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent , 0.9 emphasis added This suggests manufacturing contracted in June. (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 46.0%

Manufacturing 68

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DECEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 in October.

Manufacturing 52

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Abnormal Returns

APRIL 9, 2024

(cnbc.com) Global Japan is trying to rebuild its chip manufacturing sector. wsj.com) Economy State coincident indicators show continued economic strength. nytimes.com) Russia is illegally holding Ukrainians in Crimea. vanityfair.com) How Starlink boxes are ending up all over the world including in the hands of Russian forces.

Financial Advising 263

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NOVEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 in September.

Manufacturing 54

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 54

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SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.6% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.6% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.6 (Posted with permission). Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 56

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 56

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

March 1: ISM Manufacturing ISM manufacturing stays in contraction The ISM manufacturing index is expected to see a slight uptick in February but should remain in contractionary territory. Under normal circumstances, January’s spending would be celebrated as a sign of robust consumer activity and continued economic expansion.

Economics 98

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JUNE 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.1% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9 The PMI® was at 46.9% in May, down from 47.1%

Manufacturing 65

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Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

The ISM manufacturing and services surveys both fell, with manufacturing falling further into contraction and services nearing contraction. The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. What we’re watching this week: (pg.

Economics 52

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Abnormal Returns

APRIL 21, 2024

humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Financial trends reverse just when they seem inevitable. nytimes.com) Chipotle ($CMG) is on a roll.

Financial Advising 266

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OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Manufacturing activity was mixed, although contacts across multiple Districts noted an improving outlook for the sector. emphasis added The beige book reports have shown far less economic growth in Q3 than the key economic indicators.

Economics 60

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 60

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APRIL 3, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.3% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The March Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.3 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 46.3%

Manufacturing 62

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 62

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SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 52.8%

Manufacturing 75

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 75

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MARCH 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.7% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 (Posted with permission). in January.

Manufacturing 58

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Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. The fall in backlogs of work was the sharpest in two-and-ahalf years, with manufacturers reporting the steeper decline in work-in-hand.

Economy 290

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AUGUST 1, 2023

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 46.4%

Manufacturing 40

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 40

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

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NOVEMBER 12, 2023

(econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Economic activity continues to shift toward these four Sunbelt cities. nytimes.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. ft.com) How this manufacturer is making a four-day workweek work. npr.org)

Financial Advising 245

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JULY 12, 2023

Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May. Manufacturing activity edged up in half of the Districts and declined in the other half. Overall economic expectations for the coming months generally continued to call for slow growth. Auto sales remained unchanged or exhibited moderate growth across most Districts.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Retail Manufacturing 52

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NOVEMBER 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.2 (Posted with permission). The PMI® was at 50.2%

Manufacturing 49

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 49

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DECEMBER 31, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bbc.com) Belarus is complicit in the abduction of Ukrainian children. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 245

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Nationwide Financial

MAY 30, 2023

2) June 1: ISM Manufacturing Further contraction in the manufacturing sector The ISM manufacturing index should show continued contraction in the manufacturing sector as businesses reduce plans for future investment amid falling sales. (see more below) What we’re watching this week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Economy Financial Market 52

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 11, 2023

As developments on the banking sector settled down in the latest week, economic data returned to center stage, highlighted by the February’s consumer inflation and spending data. The Chicago PMI directionally has a particularly tight fit with the ISM manufacturing index over time, though it records larger swings at times.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Banking Marketing 52

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 30, 2023

February 1 & 3: ISM indices likely to stay in contractionary territory New orders, a leading indicator for demand and production, dropped steeply in December for both services and manufacturing, reflecting a sharp retrenchment in customer demand. The ISM services index plunged in December to join manufacturing in contraction territory.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Numbers Education 52

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 9, 2023

Conversely, the ISM surveys for both manufacturing and services showed contraction in December — the first time both surveys have been simultaneously in contraction in over 13 years outside of the Covid lockdown period — with reduced price pressures across the business sector. It is the first non-Covid contractionary reading since 2009.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Food Marketing 52

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 6, 2023

Other economic data showed a surprising jump in housing market activity and jobless claims remained very low, while core durable goods orders and shipments when adjusted for inflation were softish. Economic data remains positive Other economic indicators also pointed to continued growth. percent after it cooled to 4.4

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Economy 52

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 3, 2023

January 4 & 5: ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes – a tale of two sectors. The ISM manufacturing index is likely to fall further below the 50 boom-bust mark to a reading of 48.5 Manufacturing activity is contracting as new orders demand wanes. What we’re watching this week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Numbers Economy 52

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 The PMI® was at 52.8% in July, down from 53.0%

Manufacturing 43

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 43

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

FOMC Says Inflation Is Still Too High Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week. 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Durable Goods Orders. Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Economics 59

Economics Taxes Investment Advisor Investing 59

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 18, 2023

US retail sales exceeded all forecasts and industrial production strengthened last month, fresh evidence of a resilient American consumer whose spending is helping stabilize manufacturing.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Manufacturing Sales 52

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 7, 2022

(nytimes.com) High tech immigration is necessary for rebuilding US manufacturing. politico.com) How friendships across economic classes affect income mobility. theconversation.com) Economics Putting the July NFP into some historical perspective. (wsj.com) The 3 month-10 year term spread is nearing inversion.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Economics Food Manufacturing 242

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 7, 2023

coindesk.com) Companies How Apple ($AAPL) saves money on new chips manufactured by Taiwan Semi ($TSM). wsj.com) Economy Tyler Cowen, "It’s important to resist the temptation to think of economic expansions in moral terms." Crypto PayPal ($PYPL) has launched its own stablecoin. theverge.com) Five questions about the PayPal stablecoin.

Financial Advising 235

Financial Advising Manufacturing Media Economy 235

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MARCH 20, 2024

bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago. (entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy.

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