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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 290
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Further slowing of economic activity as Fed rate hikes bite: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook

Nationwide Financial

March’s employment report showed a continued moderation in job growth, but the number of hires was still solid. The ISM manufacturing and services surveys both fell, with manufacturing falling further into contraction and services nearing contraction. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Manufacturing jobs are still strong, at least as reported. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.2 I expected that decline in manufacturing hours and expect still more coming up. hour to 34.4

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Sunday links: a liberating mindset

Abnormal Returns

(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips. bloomberg.com) Ukraine is trying to boost its own weapons manufacturing. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago.

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Comments on March Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment was unchanged and is now 176 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31

Numbers 124
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Service sector showing some cracks, too: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook

Nationwide Financial

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.