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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. The fall in backlogs of work was the sharpest in two-and-ahalf years, with manufacturers reporting the steeper decline in work-in-hand.

Economy 290
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Manufacturing Has Peaked This Cycle, 8 of 11 ISM Components in Contraction

Mish Talk

Please consider the November 2022 Manufacturing ISM ® Report On Business ® “Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Key Details “The November Manufacturing PMI ® registered 49 percent, 1.2 The Manufacturing PMI ® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent, 4.2

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ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.3% in March

Calculated Risk

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.3% March 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March after contracting for 16 consecutive months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

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Monday links: big lessons

Abnormal Returns

(finance.yahoo.com) Global With a rate hike in the books, is Japan's economy finally normalizing? bloomberg.com) Economy The employment economy is humming along. bonddad.blogspot.com) Where the manufacturing economy stands. on.ft.com) European companies are coming around to stock buybacks.

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ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.8% in February

Calculated Risk

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8% From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8% Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “ The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 in January.

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Wednesday links: the shelf life of a stock

Abnormal Returns

apolloacademy.com) China has a glut of traditional auto manufacturing plants. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. (vox.com) How aid to Ukraine will flow through the U.S.

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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 117