by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2023 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 46.4% in July, up from 46.0% in June. The employment index was at 44.4%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.3%, up from 45.6%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4% July 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the ninth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.3 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.6 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 48.3 percent is a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to June’s figure of 46.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 42.6 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the June figure of 41.8 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.8 percent, 4.1 percentage points higher than the June reading of 38.7 percent. The Employment Index dropped further into contraction, registering 44.4 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from June’s reading of 48.1 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in July.  This was close to the consensus forecast.