Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 73

Economy Sales Economics Investing 73

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 105

Economy Sales Economics Investing 105

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. Inflation Pinched Pockets. 1] [link]. [2] 2] [link]. [3]

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Alas, utterly nothing. of its value.

Economy 321

Economy Economics Portfolio Media 321

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 30, 2024

One definition , according to a speech delivered by Tom Barkin, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, is “where inflation completes its journey back to normal levels while the economy stays healthy”. One might then wonder 1) what are normal inflation levels and 2) what defines a healthy economy. during this period.

Economy 75

Economy Financial Advisor Banking Economics 75

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Economics 68

Economics Sales Economy Food 68

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. year-over-year in November compared to November 2021. compared to the same period in 2021.

Economics 107

Economics Sales Economy Banking 107

The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 13, 2024

Articles Instead of viewing behavioral economics as a window, we should regard it as a mirror. (By By Ben Carlson) Podcasts The movie. The post These Are the Goods appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Economy 98

Economy Economics Planning 98

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. 2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 337

Manufacturing Economy Economics Portfolio 337

Nationwide Financial

JULY 20, 2022

and its impact on economic growth, George Bernard Shaw’s quote seems apropos. Undeniably, for decades, economists and deficit hawks alike have been debating the merits of rising national debt and weaker economic activity as a result. growth rate for 2021. growth rate for 2021.

Economics 59

Economics Budgeting Economy Government 59

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Let’s look at the scorecard: Bitcoin – it boomed in 2020 well in advance of the big inflation spike in 2021 & 2022 and weirdly busted as inflation reared its ugly head. TIPS – Like most bonds, TIPS surged in 2020 & 2021 and then got clobbered when inflation spiked. 3) The “This is Fine” Economy.

Economy 80

Economy Retail Government Banking 80

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 22, 2023

Whether the Fed raises rate or holds steady on Wednesday, we see the unfortunate banking developments and ensuing tightening of lending standards as reinforcing our view that the economy is headed for a moderate recession in the second half of the 2023. This should drive economic growth at around an annualized 2.5-3.0

Economics 98

Economics Banking Sales Retail 98

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Analysis: Acceleration in consumer inflation increases the odds of further Fed action Robust spending and income for January was in line with other strong economic data for the month, showing renewed economic vigor despite the Fed’s efforts to cool inflationary conditions. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed by 1.8

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 6, 2023

Other economic data showed a surprising jump in housing market activity and jobless claims remained very low, while core durable goods orders and shipments when adjusted for inflation were softish. 1) Services employment picks up The employment component of February’s ISM services index climbed to its highest level since December 2021.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Economy 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

If these two markets appear to be suggesting two different future economic results, it is more likely a reflection of those investor differences than a result of markets collectively forecasting two different things. Real Wages (November 22, 2021). One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). The Great Reset (June 2, 2021).

Marketing 312

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 312

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs added in 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2022. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 89

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 89

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.1 1 Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Business Cycle Dating.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Retail Tax Planning 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 15, 2023

theatlantic.com) The IRS is still working through 2021 paper returns. wsj.com) Has economics run out of big ideas? awealthofcommonsense.com) The labor economy is already cooling off. bloomberg.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. nytimes.com) Why the labor economy is still so tight. nytimes.com).

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Retail Economics 130

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 17, 2023

In other economic news, the NFIB small business survey showed decreasing optimism among small business owners, many of whom have a negative outlook on the economy and expected sales for 2023. The 12-month change in the CPI fell for a sixth straight month and is now at its lowest level since October 2021. CPI growth falls again.

Economics 52

Economics Numbers Retail Sales 52

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Historical impact of pandemics on the economy Historically, health pandemics have caused significant shocks to the U.S. Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. percent in mid-2021. What is transitory inflation?

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. 4 Consider : We had 2% inflation expectations the entire post-GFC era.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 350

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 350

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Carson Wealth

JULY 31, 2023

After a large reversal Thursday, stocks bounced back Friday, bolstered by the continued impressive performance of the economy (further details below). Economic growth accelerated over the past year, defying tight policy and expectations. However, the last time this happened was in 2021, and that was followed by a drop of nearly 12%.

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing Compliance 52

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

What it does reveal is that the Federal Reserve is not current with the latest research on 1) What drives inflation; 2) The fallibility of surveys and polling data; 3) An updated understanding of behavioral economics and how human decision-making works.

Economy 294

Economy Economics Investing Investments 294

NAIFA Advisor Today

APRIL 22, 2024

With millions of Americans engaged in the care of loved ones, Golden reveals the economic and emotional challenges that persist in what she refers to as the "shadow" caregiving economy.

Financial Planning 52

Financial Planning Economics Planning Economy 52

Brown Advisory

MAY 25, 2021

Economy: Risks & Recommendations ajackson Tue, 05/25/2021 - 08:12 Our new report, “Inflation in the U.S. Economy: Risks & Recommendations”, by Sid Ahl, Taylor Graff and Tom Graff is now available. Inflation in the U.S.

Economy 52

Economy Clients Economics Portfolio 52

Brown Advisory

MAY 25, 2021

Economy: Risks & Recommendations. Tue, 05/25/2021 - 08:12. Economy: Risks & Recommendations”, by Sid Ahl, Taylor Graff and Tom Graff is now available. Inflation in the U.S. Our new report, “Inflation in the U.S. Why, despite mounting inflationary pressures, comparisons to 1970s-style runaway inflation may be unwarranted.

Economy 52

Economy Clients Economics Portfolio 52

Park Place Financial

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Estates Estate Planning in this Economic Climate Schedule a Complimentary Financial Review CLICK HERE TO SCHEDULE. Between inflation, increasing interest rates, federal changes to monetary policies, and global conflict, many factors are putting a strain on the current economic situation. million per person in 2021 to $12.06

Estate Planning 52

Estate Planning Economics Planning Financial Planner 52

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (July 9, 2021).

Medicine 325

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 325

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 4, 2022

(on.ft.com) 2022 ETF launches are lagging behind 2021's pace. morningstar.com) Economics The economics profession has a sexual harassment problem. morningstar.com) Economics The economics profession has a sexual harassment problem. statnews.com) Economy The November NFP shows a slowing, but still growing, economy.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Economics Economy 130

ClearMoney

JANUARY 4, 2022

Coming out of a volatile 2020, investors sought signals as to which way the global economy was headed. The distribution of vaccines and the easing of lockdowns were followed by an economic rebound, but the emergence of new variants would be a setback for the recovery. The S&P 500 Index1 generated returns of 28.71%.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Commission Government 52

Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 5, 2021

For both companies and governments, this provides incredible economic and infrastructure opportunities, but also exposes massive risks to security and privacy. Technology rules the way we communicate, connect, consume and collaborate.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Clients Valuation 52

Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 5, 2021

Investment Insights: What you need to know about Technology in 2021. Fri, 02/05/2021 - 05:00. For both companies and governments, this provides incredible economic and infrastructure opportunities, but also exposes massive risks to security and privacy. Technology rules the way we communicate, connect, consume and collaborate.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Clients Valuation 52

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 12, 2022

Global Leaders Investment Letter: December 2021. After one offsite a couple of years ago we reduced the number of potential moats from six broad categories including economies of scale, intangibles, network effects etc. Ultimately, the most important thing is that the moats protect the key economic drivers of our investment thesis.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Clients Economics 52