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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. 24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.

Marketing 290
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. Social Leverage recently launched its 4th fund.

Math 140
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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?

Insurance 130
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Bernstein on Bulletproof

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

That is difficult to pull off but if you do the math on that it shows long term outperformance. Remember, the peak in the S&P 500 in October, 2007 was 1565. He makes a good point about not relying solely on math to assess markets and portfolio construction, that the psychology of markets is important too.

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50% Risk-free Annual Returns

The Big Picture

emphasis added) The red flags were there for anyone who could put their greed aside and simply focus on the math. August 10, 2007) Source : An alleged $500 million Ponzi scheme preyed on Mormons. It ended with FBI gunfire. By Lizzie Johnson Washington Post, February 1, 2023 _ 1.

Math 61
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Hold Cash or Invest? History Shows Cash Isn’t King for Long

Darrow Wealth Management

The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. Again just using simple math, this presumes the par value will roll over each month and reinvest at the same rate to get to the annual yield. This has been the faster pace of rate hikes since the 1980-1981 cycle. 467% a month.

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Throw It All Out And Start Over?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Using Vanguard funds as proxies, VFINX for domestic equities and VGTSX for international equities, an investor who retired with $1 million on Dec 31, 2007 who immediately took out their 4% for 2008 would have had $576,000 at the end of 2008. in November.