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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This is before we get to the issue of capital gains taxes, which create a hurdle of (minimum) 20% on those pesky profits just to get to breakeven. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. Let’s add some color to the discussion on timing itself and add a little nuance.1

Marketing 293
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Hold Cash or Invest? History Shows Cash Isn’t King for Long

Darrow Wealth Management

The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. Again just using simple math, this presumes the par value will roll over each month and reinvest at the same rate to get to the annual yield. This has been the faster pace of rate hikes since the 1980-1981 cycle. 467% a month.

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Transcript: Tom Hancock, GMO

The Big Picture

You wouldn’t be surprised to learn the tax consequences of owning a mutual fund is a part of it. I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. Really fascinating guy. So I was at Harvard.

Valuation 130
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Transcript: Matt Levine

The Big Picture

I published what’s called a comment, so like a very short one about this great tax law case with this guy who like won the lottery and then wanted to get his lottery winnings treated as capital gains. So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? Matt Levine : 00:03:44 You know, I did. And he lost.

Retail 130
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Transcript: Anat Admati

The Big Picture

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.

Banking 195
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Transcript: Graeme Forster, Orbis Investments

The Big Picture

So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. You don’t have to pay any tax and just let the rest ride. It’s just math stick to it over long periods of time. You give out 5%.

Investing 130
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Transcript: Ted Seides

The Big Picture

SEIDES: John Yeah, I said back then, the bet started in 2007 and I say today, being in the market and investing in hedge funds is completely apples and oranges. So for a taxable investor, hedge funds generally aren’t tax efficient. This is the summer of 2007. RITHOLTZ: 2007. So back in 2007. SEIDES: Yeah.