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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. Catching the exact right moment when the crowd is mostly wrong goes against all of your instincts as a social primate.3 More on this later.

Marketing 293
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Bernstein on Bulletproof

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

That is difficult to pull off but if you do the math on that it shows long term outperformance. Having that much in asset classes that are intended to not look like equities should mean that the long term result won't look anything like the stock market. Remember, the peak in the S&P 500 in October, 2007 was 1565.

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Hold Cash or Invest? History Shows Cash Isn’t King for Long

Darrow Wealth Management

The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. So when the federal funds rate goes up, it can have an outsized impact on shorter term interest rates on assets like Treasury bills (T-bills). This has been the faster pace of rate hikes since the 1980-1981 cycle. 467% a month.

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Transcript: Tom Hancock, GMO

The Big Picture

I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. Then what enables that you have to have some asset ability capability that competitors can’t equally duplicate. Finance was the natural fit for GMO.

Valuation 130
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Throw It All Out And Start Over?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Using Vanguard funds as proxies, VFINX for domestic equities and VGTSX for international equities, an investor who retired with $1 million on Dec 31, 2007 who immediately took out their 4% for 2008 would have had $576,000 at the end of 2008. in November.

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Transcript: Matt Levine

The Big Picture

But there’s also a lot of, like at Wittel, you know, I was at Wachtel in 2005 to 2007, so really near the peak of a big merger’s boom. So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? And I love that.

Retail 130
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Transcript: Julian Salisbury, GS

The Big Picture

He is the Chief Investment Officer of Asset and Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs. He co-chairs a number of the asset management investment committees. trillion in assets under supervision. JULIAN SALISBURY, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF ASSET AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT, GOLDMAN SACHS: Thanks, Barry. And I think you will also.

Assets 286