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Is It Time to Back Away from Big Tech?

Advisor Perspectives

The economy, inflation, interest rates and market valuations drive the key questions facing advisors. Does the tech stock landscape mirror the boom of 1996 or the bust of 2000? What will be the impact of Meta's inaugural dividend payment? Is now the time to increase allocations to international Markets?

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They’ve Ruled Out Tail Risk

Advisor Perspectives

from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history. As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7%

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Nvidia is not the first giant tech company to trade at a rich valuation. Irrelevant Investor ) see also “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (2000) 23 years ago, Fortune magazine’s cover story about networking gear maker Cisco was published. We can’t compare things to the future, so we look to the past.

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Small Cap Value: Waiting for the Jumpstart

Validea

By Justin Carbonneau ( Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube ) — Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen a number of charts highlighting the opportunity in small-cap stocks given their absolute and relative valuations. The chart below, also from our market valuation tool, compares small cap value to large cap growth stocks. Only 12.4%

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Small caps: Near-term risks vs. long-term potential

Nationwide Financial

The Russell 2000® Index (which tracks small-cap stock performance) was up only 0.44%. Are the Russell 2000’s weak returns a sign of slowing economic growth, or is the recent underperformance of small caps reflecting investor sentiment about current market opportunities? times earnings over the same period.

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Are Growth Stocks Cheap?

Validea

No matter what metric you looked at, the peak valuations for growth stocks in mid-2021 were extreme. This is a chart of the valuation of the most expensive decile of our investable universe using the Price/Sales ratio. But even after that decline, the overall valuation remains about 30% above its average for the full period.

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Round Trip

The Big Picture

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. But we won’t know how big a losing trade it might be until early 2024, when we see the updated valuations. Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP? Too rapid rate increases? –

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