Sat.Apr 08, 2023 - Fri.Apr 14, 2023

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CPI = 5.0% (Time to Stop Raising Rates)

The Big Picture

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. ( April 2023 ) As much as I want to jump up and down about 0.1% seasonally adjusted (after a 0.4% prior month), the big number is not so big: 5.0% A 5 handle is a huge development, even with the core remaining sligh

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Revolutionizing Advice – April 19th!

The Reformed Broker

A must-attend event for every RIA owner and practitioner, featuring Michael Kitces, Josh Brown, and Penny Phillips. Register here to secure your spot Michael Kitces is known as every financial advisor’s favorite financial advisor, with Kitces.com serving nearly 3,000 members and his Nerd’s Eye View blog reaching more than 200,000 unique visitors monthly.

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Personal finance links: life filters

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Morgan Housel talks about the importance of 'playing your own game.' (open.spotify.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with James Choi about personal financial advice and the importance of defaults. (morningstar.com) Wealth Baby Boomers control a majority of American wealthy, but it's concentrated in a minority. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Being wealthy is about not worrying about money.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 15-16)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that on the heels of introducing its own self-clearing platform and acquiring fellow RIA custodian Shareholder Services Group, Altruist announced that it raised $112 million in a series D funding round, bringing its total funding to more than $290 million.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Help Wanted!

The Big Picture

Nonfarm payrolls came out Friday, and once again they impressed with their underlying strength: 236,000 new workers were added in March, with February NFP revised upward to 326,000, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. But there remains nearly two job opening for each unemployed worker, and despite rising wages, lots of decent positions remain unfilled.

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Wednesday links: fee efficiency

Abnormal Returns

Fund management Don't look to the UK for successful active managers. (ft.com) A Texas-focused ETF is coming down the pike. (finance.yahoo.com) ETNs are not the same as ETFs. (barrons.com) AI Why AI hasn't taken over Wall Street, yet. (wsj.com) How Qraft Technologies plans to limit access to its AI tools. (institutionalinvestor.com) Companies Meta ($META) has a morale problem.

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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

Nine years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group. Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030.

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MiB: Aswath Damodaran: Valuations, Narratives & Academia

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Aswath Damodaran, who holds the Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education at New York University’s Stern School of Business. A nine-time “Professor of the Year” winner at NYU, Damodaran teaches classes in corporate finance and valuation to MBA students. He has also written several books on corporate finance and equity valuation and has published widely in journals.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Biotech, Defense, Thermo Fisher & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Adviser links: the power of selectivity

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Justin L. Mack talks with Zach Conway, who is CEO of Seeds Investor. (financial-planning.com) Frazer Rice talks family offices with Edward Marshall, Head of the Global Family Office at Dentons, the international law firm. (podcasts.apple.com) Direct indexing Savvy Wealth has launched a direct indexing tool. (wealthmanagement.com) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) has a lower minimum for its DIY direct indexing tool.

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Worry About the Right Things

The Irrelevant Investor

My colleague Nick in Louisiana wrote something excellent that I wanted to share with you. Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. “Do you know the difference between me and you? Me: Happy, happy, happy, dead. You: Worry, worry, worry, dead.” – Catch-22. The last few years reminded us that it’s more important to know how it feels to lose money than to make it.

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Nudging Investors into Better 401k Behavior

The Big Picture

Some encouraging news about people saving for retirement: A study by Vanguard Group found that “Automatic enrollment and the rise of target-date funds” are having a substantial and positive impact on retirement savers, in particular, on Millennials and Generation Z investors. They have seen a significant uptick in overall participation rate, which has increased from 62% in 2006 to 82% in 2021.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in March

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in March and was little changed in the first quarter, increasing at an annual rate of 0.2 percent. In March, manufacturing and mining output each fell 0.5 percent. The index for utilities jumped 8.4 percent, as the return to more seasonal weather after a mild February boosted the demand for heating.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Friday links: playing your own game

Abnormal Returns

Markets Q1 S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline for the second quarter in a row. (axios.com) Gold is back at all-time highs. (allstarcharts.com) Bonds Individual investors are getting a crash course in bond buying. (wsj.com) Treasury bonds are no longer a crazy proposition. (morningstar.com) Technology Why Intel's ($INTC) turnaround is a long shot.

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Lucky in Life

The Irrelevant Investor

Luck is an important ingredient in success. I was thinking about this today while listening to Danny Meyer with Tim Ferris. Meyer was talking about all of the different things that had to happen to get him to where he is today. The funny thing about success is you never know which moment in time will shape the rest of your life. People love to talk about their bad luck. “Watch.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Failed to Take Part in First-Quarter Rally : Bearish positioning, less exposure to big tech stocks hurt active fund managers. ( Wall Street Journal ) see also Take ‘Potential Winners’ With a Grain of Salt : Investment fads are nothing new, as the Salton Sea’s mid-century boom-turned-bust shows—a timeless lesson. ( Fisher Investments ) • Bond Market Is Overplaying the Risk of a Deep Recession : Trading in other major markets suggests a p

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How Rich Are the Baby Boomers?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I don’t know if this is my finance brain at work or just hitting middle age but anytime I travel now there invariably comes a point where I pull up home listings in the area on Zillow to get a sense of the local housing market. My family was in Marco Island, FL last week for spring break so of course I had to do some channel checks on housing prices in the area: Two things stand out here: (1) There are tons of list.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Tuesday links: unproven fears

Abnormal Returns

Strategy The stock market is converting bears into bulls. (allstarcharts.com) Broad diversification is back! (morningstar.com) Companies Tupperware ($TUP) is at-risk of going bankrupt. (axios.com) Boeing ($BA) jumped ahead of Airbus in deliveries for the first time since Q2 2018. (finance.yahoo.com) Chipotle Mexican Grill ($CMG) is rolling out a new all-electric restaurant concept.

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Merger Arbitrage as Diversification Strategy

Alpha Architect

Merger arbitrage is an investment style in which investors seek to buy shares of firms that are acquisition targets with the objective of realizing the difference between the amount for which the target is being acquired and the stock price of the target shortly after the acquisition is announced. The stock price of the target company typically sells below the acquisition price, reflecting the uncertainty of the deal being completed (the arbitrage spread).

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Nine Must Reads for Real Estate Investors Today (April 12, 2023)

Wealth Management

Diversified Healthcare Trust struck a merger agreement with Office Properties Income Trust, reports McKnights Senior Living. Commercial Observer looks at the conflicting pictures of what's going on in the multifamily sector. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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There is No Index Fund For the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

The stock market crashed more than 85% from 1929-1932 during The Great Depression. Millions saw their finances get decimated in that period but for most people it was from the economy getting crushed, not their portfolios. Back then the stock market was a place reserved only for the wealthy and bucket shop speculators. In fact, less than 1% of the population was even invested in the stock market heading into the great c.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Monday links: effective leadership

Abnormal Returns

Housing The housing market is locked up. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why there is no index fund for the housing market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Higher mortgage rates are making it more challenging for divorcing couples. (wsj.com) Apple Apple ($AAPL) Mac sales took it on the chin in Q1. (arstechnica.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) needs a standalone password app.

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No Sellers, No Buyers

The Irrelevant Investor

A new construction a couple of blocks away from me has been listed on Zillow for 213 days. The house is beautiful. The only thing wrong with it is when it was listed. This home would have sold for asking or above if it had been built twelve months earlier. The mortgage market has had a heck of a transformation over the past year. From 2014 through 2021, the average 30-year mortgage was 3.8%.

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Passively Managed Mutual Funds Outpace Their Active Counterparts During Q1

Wealth Management

Despite common perception that active beats passive during times of volatility, only 25% of large value, blend and growth mutual funds outperformed their category index during the first quarter of 2023.

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Remote Work and Household Formation

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Remote Work and Household Formation A brief excerpt: Back in September 2021, I wrote Household Formation Drives Housing Demand So what is driving demand for both homeownership and rentals? Household formation! Over time, housing economist Tom Lawler and I unraveled the household formation mystery.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Your investment strategy needs to work in all markets. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Interrupt compounding as little as possible. (bestinterest.blog) Index funds don't call you in the middle of the night saying the roof is leaking. (businessinsider.com) How to dole out risk in your portfolio. (humbledollar.com) It's hard to get past the difference in valuation between European and U.S. stocks.

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10 Largest Stock Exchanges in the World By Market Cap – Complete List Of Stock Exchanges

Trade Brains

List of Largest Stock Exchanges in the World: People who invest in stocks must be familiar with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ, and Shanghai stock exchange as some of the most popular exchanges in the world. But there are a few large stock exchanges with which we may not be familiar. In this post, we are going to discuss the biggest and largest stock exchanges in the world by the total market cap of all listed companies.

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Eight Must Reads for Real Estate Investors Today (April 14, 2023)

Wealth Management

Financial Times lays out the case for why the extent of the likely troubles in the commercial real estate sector is exaggerated. Shadow lenders are getting ready to fill the debt gap left by banks and CMBS shops, according to Bloomberg. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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