Thu.Oct 26, 2023

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Thursday links: an emotional trap

Abnormal Returns

Markets Why aren't stocks down more? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock-bond correlation does one thing: it changes. (fa-mag.com) Stocks outperform bonds over the long run, but not every year or even decade. (bestinterest.blog) 60/40 portfolios Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands. (morningstar.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio endures. (demystifyingmarkets.com) Strategy On the importance of being able to sit on your hands.

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Navigating Financial Disasters

The Big Picture

Earlier this year, I gave my first presentation since the pandemic began. I discussed all of the many ways we hurt ourselves financially, specifically, the focus was on the 3 biggest mistakes high net-worth people make. I got lots of good feedback about the presentation, but my favorite note from someone in the room was: “ Thanks for identifying these issues, but how do I navigate them ?

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CoreLogic: "US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August"

Calculated Risk

From CoreLogic: US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August • The share of U.S. borrowers who were in serious mortgage delinquency (90 days or more late on payments) dropped to 0.9% in August, the lowest recorded since January 1999. • The overall national mortgage delinquency rate (30 days or more late) was at 2.6% in August, also a historic low. • The U.S. foreclosure rate held steady at 0.3% in August, unchanged since early 2022. • Only Idaho and Utah saw slight annual

Marketing 126
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What Returns Should You Expect in the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Further Reading: Do Valuations Even Matter For the Stock Market? 1I would argue real estate would be a close second on this list from an inflation hedge perspective but the long run returns are much harder to calculate when you include things like ancillary costs, mortgage rates, refinancing, leverage, etc. 2And this is real since stocks are a real asset.

Marketing 120
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Pending Home Sales Remain Low Despite September Growth

Advisor Perspectives

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index inched up 1.1% in September to 72.6, a surprising increase compared to the expected 1.8% decline. Despite the growth, pending home sales remain low as the latest index reading is the third lowest in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 11.0% compared to one year ago.

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More Trending

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average.

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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Oct. 27, 2023)

Wealth Management

Big changes at the top were announced for both Rudin and Silverstein Properties with next generation family members taking the helms at both firms. The Wall Street Journal looked at the growth of the data center segment as an investment strategy. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to wrap up the week.

Investing 107
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Why Aren’t Stocks Down More?

The Irrelevant Investor

Consumer prices are up 20% since the end of 2019. Interest rates have gone from 0% to 5% over the same time. Financial conditions have tightened, and yet the stock market hasn’t broken. If you had known the future paths of the two most important macro variables, inflation and interest rates, you would have thought the stock market would be significantly worse off than it is today.

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5 Best Chemical Stocks with High FII Holdings – Watchlist Gems?

Trade Brains

Best Chemical Stocks with High FII Holdings : In the complex structure of global industries, when we see textiles of multiple colors, and skyscrapers built around the world we have to sit & ask ourselves, What are the basic components that make all of this possible? What are the raw materials that might seem simple but can construct an intricately beautiful world?

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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JP Morgan Asset Management Ramps Up Offerings Aimed at Wealth Channel

Wealth Management

The launch of JP Morgan Private Markets Fund earlier this month was the asset manager’s latest offering in the race to make alternatives more accessible.

Assets 113
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Chart of the Week: Booming GDP?

Discipline Funds

Q3 GDP came in at a boomy 4.9%. The chart at the right breaks down the contributions by component. The primary drivers were inventories and personal consumption at 1.3% and 2.69%. The inventory rebuild is a volatile component, but the consumption figure is impressive and reflects the most important component of GDP. The US consumer has been remarkably resilient in the face of many different headwinds.

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Large Enterprises Drive LPL’s Q3 Recruiting

Wealth Management

CEO Dan Arnold sees the firm’s recent deal with Prudential as a catalyst to having more discussions with insurance-owned firms with similar needs.

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Tips to Save for Retirement

Talon Wealth

Retirement planning can be intimidating, especially if you need help figuring out where to start. But with a few simple tips and arming yourself with a bit of knowledge, you can begin to prepare for your golden years and set yourself on the path to financial security. Determine When to Start Saving When it comes to saving for retirement, earlier is almost always better.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Confident Compassion: How Corey Anderson Succeeded in Building a New DI Distribution Model

NAIFA Advisor Today

Corey Anderson is an insurance agent specializing in counseling advisors on implementing insurance plans for disabled clients. As an industry leader, Corey is a frequently featured speaker at industry meetings on topics pertaining to disability insurance. He has served on the state and local NAIFA board for over 18 years, holding various roles, including president.

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Retirement Planning Tips for Women

Talon Wealth

Retirement planning is a critical part of financial security that many women still overlook. However, remember that as a woman, you have a longer life expectancy than a man, which means retirement planning is even more important. You need to plan for a longer retirement period and ensure you have enough of a nest egg to accommodate your needs. The good news is, by concentrating on a few key areas now, you can increase your chances of spending your golden years happy, comfortable, and secure. 1.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: How to Navigate the Emotional Rollercoaster Ride of a Transition

Wealth Management

Mindy Diamond and Louis Diamond share ideas from 25 years of experience to help advisors navigate the daunting process of transition.

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BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.9% Annualized Rate in Q3

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and resi

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Financial Services Needs Compliance Aggregators

Wealth Management

Compliance has not kept up with the current the dynamic regulatory environment and its multitude of requirements.

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Durable Goods Orders Rise More Than Expected in September

Advisor Perspectives

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose more than expected in September, coming in at $297.24B. This is a 4.7% increase from the previous month and is more than the expected 1.7% growth. The series is up 7.8% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were up 0.5% from the previous month and up 1.7% from one year ago.

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Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick Will Succeed James Gorman as CEO

Wealth Management

Pick beat out two other CEO contenders: Co-President Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz, who has led investment management.

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Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 4.9%, Higher Than Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3 2023, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is higher than the forecasted 4.3% growth and is more than double the pace of the Q2 2023 GDP final estimate of 2.1%.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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The Compound and Friends: The Trillion Dollar Question

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Public: Visit public.com/compound for more information on how to earn 5+% interest with a treasury account on public. On today’s show, we discuss: New normal or no normal? How economists got it wrong for 3 years Listen here: Charts: Recommendations: Same As Ever Rick Brink: LinkedIn Contact us at askthecompoundshow@gmail.com with any fee.

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Unemployment Claims Up 10K, Worse Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending October 21, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 210,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is higher than the forecast of 208,000.

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 3.4% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.7% YoY. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for October).

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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline in October

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index continued to decline in October and the future outlook remained flat. The composite index came in at -8, unchanged from September, while the future outlook remained at 1.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.0% YoY; New Listings Down 1.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 21, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.0%. For 18 straight weeks, the number of homes available for sale has registered below that of the previous year.

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GDP Per Capita vs. GDP

Advisor Perspectives

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 4.87%, an acceleration from 2.06% for the Q2 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 4.41%, an increase from 1.60% for the Q2 headline number.

Numbers 64
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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.1% in September; Down 11% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Grew 1.1% in September Pending home sales augmented 1.1% in September , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the West experienced a loss. All four U.S. regions had year-over-year declines in transactions. "Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

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