Thu.Nov 02, 2023

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Where is This Rally Going?

The Big Picture

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, I reiterated my view from July 2023 that this hiking cycle was – or at least should be – over. The Narrative bias driving commentary today is that this sudden bullishness is the market sussing out the last hike. But this after-the-fact story does not resonate as truth with me, as it looks more like the 10% market correction of October 2023 has ended.

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Longform links: bandwidth depletion

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend" by Rob Copeland. (nytimes.com) An excerpt from "The Dissident: Alexey Navalny, Profile of a Political Prisoner" by David M. Herszenhorn. (politico.com) Private equity The private equity industry controls a growing portion of the American economy.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 124: When Clients Evolve Out Of Your Niche Specialization Should You Stay Or Go (Or Not)

Nerd's Eye View

Many financial advisors have found that serving a client niche not only helps them run a more efficient firm (as they work with clients facing similar planning issues), but also attracts more new clients (as they are able to offer a unique value proposition for clients within the niche). Notably, though, while certain clients are likely to stay within the niche throughout their lives (e.g., retired clients tend to remain retired until their deaths), other clients might 'evolve' out of the niche

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Thursday links: avoiding permanent losses

Abnormal Returns

Markets Bonds are now competition for stocks. (ritholtz.com) November and December have been good months after a stock markete correction. (carsongroup.com) Fund management Why it's hard for investors to quit Blackrock ($BLK). (riabiz.com) Vanguard is finalizing its exit from China. (pionline.com) Advertising If the economy were bad, companies would be cutting back on advertising.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train reads: • The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? Lingering inflation can’t explain all of the unhappiness; maybe it is referred pain from the wider world. ( Wall Street Journal ) • The Bond Market, a Sleeping Giant, Awakes : Soaring interest rates have the power to alter the direction of the economy and command the attention of Washington, our columnist says. ( New York Times ) see also World’s Safest Market Becomes a Magnet for Big Investors : US governme

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly New Listings UP 5.6% YoY; Active Inventory Down 1.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 28, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 1.0%. For 19 straight weeks, the number of homes available for sale has registered below that of the previous year. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 5.6% from one year ago.

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What If This Time is Different For the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I appreciate Ben’s long-term view of stock market corrections but what if this time is different? What are the stats when the Fed is actively offloading trillions of assets AND raising rates? What if this cycle is an anomaly and should be treated as such? This question was written in response to a recent post where I used the following table to show the historical distribution of losses over the past.

Marketing 117
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Mindy Diamond on Independence: An Inside Look at Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions

Wealth Management

Richard Lofgren, the managing director of Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions, details how they differentiate from other established custodians, their ideal advisor profile and more.

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Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand ).

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Dynasty Partner Firm Lifts Two Advisors Out of Rockefeller

Wealth Management

Christopher Fineburg and Teresa Armel have left Rockefeller Global Family Office, which has become one of the most sought-after options for UHNW advisors, to join Next Capital Management.

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It's Long-Term Care Awareness Month: Make Sure Your Clients Prepare for Any Eventuality

NAIFA Advisor Today

November is National Long-Term Care Awareness Month and it is a great time to bring potential limited and extended care planning needs top-of-mind with your clients. It is important for every comprehensive financial plan to include LTC considerations. So even if LTC insurance is not your primary line of business, Long-Term Care Awareness Month gives you a good opportunity to get clients up to speed.

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15 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Nov. 3, 2023)

Wealth Management

Blackstone’s flagship non-traded REIT limited redemptions for the 12th straight month. PWC released its annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to end the week.

Investing 110
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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the October 2023 close.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Advisors vs. Addiction

Wealth Management

Ohio is leading the way in attempting to properly arm advisors for a fight that’s already underway, whether they realize it or not.

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2024 IRS Contribution Limits For IRAs, 401(k)s, and More

Darrow Wealth Management

The IRS has released the 2024 contribution limits for retirement plans and other cost-of-living adjustments. Contribution Limits for 401(k)s, IRAs and More in 2024 Income Limits for Tax-Deductible IRA Contributions Roth IRA Contribution Eligibility The post 2024 IRS Contribution Limits For IRAs, 401(k)s, and More appeared first on Darrow Wealth Management.

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Pimco Sounds Alarm on Under-Regulated Private Credit Markets

Wealth Management

Private credit has fast become a Wall Street favorite and is attracting cash from hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers and pension providers as well as private equity firms.

Insurance 101
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Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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$15B RIA Sequoia Launches Family Office

Wealth Management

Sequoia Sentinel represents about 55% of the firm’s assets and serves clients with a minimum of $20 million.

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The Compound and Friends: The AI Moment Comes to Wall Street

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by The US Benchmark Series: See here for more information on $TBIL, US Benchmarks 3mo Treasury Bill ETF. On today’s show, we discuss: Big money pros are split on the outlook for stocks. But they are fans of bonds. Goldman’s JP Morgan copycat ETF launches in ‘early days’ of boom Listen here: Charts: Eric Jackson: Twitter I.

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New Generation of Capital Providers Is Helping Syndicators Weather Today’s Storm

Wealth Management

Among the hardest hit real estate market participants are syndicators of over-leveraged investments with debt at floating rates.

Investing 107
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Crestmont P/E Falls for Third Conseuctive Month

Advisor Perspectives

Based on the October S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 31.8 is 113% above its arithmetic mean, 131% above its geometric mean, and is at the 96th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Elements Unveils New RIA Partnership Model

Wealth Management

The upcoming service will focus on investors who do not currently meet the asset minimums at most firms.

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Secular Market Trends: A Perspective on Bull and Bear Markets

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.

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WealthManagement EDGE Podcast: Jamie Hopkins on Transitions, Coaching Success and Lifelong Learning

Wealth Management

Career shifts and mentorships keep Jamie Hopkins facing forward.

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My College Students overcome fear via “The Four Trials of Western Kentucky University”

Ron A. Rhodes

Is going to college about acquiring knowledge, or skills? In decades past, before the internet, learning and memorizing facts had greater importance than it has today.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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5 Best Stocks Held By Axis Small Cap Fund – Portfolio Analysis

Trade Brains

Best Stocks Held By Axis Small Cap Fund : Axis Small Cap Fund Direct-Growth was launched in 2013. It is a mutual fund that invests largely in small-cap firms with excellent fundamentals and potential for growth. The fund is managed by skilled experts who utilize a bottom-up approach in order to find high-growth small-cap firms in a variety of industries.

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Unemployment Claims Up 5K, Worse Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending October 28, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is higher than the forecast of 210,000.

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Friday: Employment Report

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Rates were at 8% just two weeks ago! Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October. The consensus is for 168,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. • At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.6.

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