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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 171
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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

(marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. apolloacademy.com) How much longer can banks and office owners push out loan expirations? entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 286
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Sunday links: the appeal of simple stories

Abnormal Returns

tker.co) You can't take historical stock market statistics to the bank. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. axios.com) Economy Where various recession probability models stand. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Paul Singer, Who Predicted The Economic Crises, On What’s Next

Validea

With valuations still high, the threat of a recession still looms over the economy, ushering in a prolonged period of low returns across the market, from stocks and real estate to corporate profits, as well as elevated inflation and unemployment rates. But for long-term prosperity in the U.S.

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Bank on it? Top 5 Banking Stocks

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market: SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) logo is seen through broken glass in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. We’re not market timers but whenever there is a lot of pressure in one area of the market or a certain sector of the economy, it’s worth assessing if it’s truly the end of the world or not.

Banking 59
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Sunday links: pricing in risk

Abnormal Returns

wsj.com) How a seed investor approaches valuation discussions. newyorker.com) Who benefits from the existence of the Federal Home Loan Bank system? nytimes.com) Economy How will the fertility crisis affect GDP growth? axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (om.co) Twitter really hates paying its bills.