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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.

Economics 180
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Wednesday links: a good process

Abnormal Returns

etf.com) Finance Why Evercore ($EVR) is outperforming other investment banks. on.ft.com) There is still a lot of uncertainty around office building valuations. axios.com) Economy "Real aggregate non-supervisory payrolls made a new all-time high in February." Nobody really knows. wired.com) The spot Bitcoin ETF fee war is here.

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Thursday links: margins of safety

Abnormal Returns

(theirrelevantinvestor.com) Big tech stocks have their own valuation experience. ft.com) CRE How much commercial real estate exposure do regional banks really have? nytimes.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are off their lows of a year ago. wisdomtree.com) Big Tech has messed with factor investors.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

(marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. apolloacademy.com) How much longer can banks and office owners push out loan expirations? entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 283
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Is It Time to Back Away from Big Tech?

Advisor Perspectives

The economy, inflation, interest rates and market valuations drive the key questions facing advisors. What are the challenges faced by retail banks by not providing competitive rates and the resulting opportunity cost of holding cash? Does the tech stock landscape mirror the boom of 1996 or the bust of 2000?

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Sunday links: the appeal of simple stories

Abnormal Returns

tker.co) You can't take historical stock market statistics to the bank. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. axios.com) Economy Where various recession probability models stand. Markets Wall Street strategists views on the market can differ in the short and long term.